Storm #2 Thursday - Storm #3 Sunday-Tuesday.
For those of you who love cold weather and the white stuff (snow), then the next week ought to make you happy, if you live here in the Land of Enchantment. Changes are still coming, but the details are still pretty messy. The models are really struggling with the evolving upper air pattern, and forecasts over the next week to ten days.
Take a look at the latest image above. This is the Rapid Update Computer Model Analysis of the atmosphere at the 500 millibar level, or roughly the18,000' mean sea level. This map shows a deep upper level trough of low pressure digging southward into the Great Basin. Two upper level storms, ejecting out of this upper level trough of low pressure, are going to impact New Mexico starting Thursday, and continuing into the first of next week.
Storm #1 will sweep into the state Thursday into Friday morning. Colder air will spill southward and into southeastern New Mexico Thursday night, behind a cold front approaching from the north. Thursday will be another mild day with high temps in the low 70's. Say goodbye to those 70+ degree high temperatures been have been enjoying after Thursday.
As the upper level storm approaches the area Thursday afternoon and evening, colder air will become entrenched across the local area behind the cold front. A few light rain showers are forecast to change over to light snow showers in the Sacramento Mountains Thursday night. For now, it appears that this precipitation will be very light and spotty.
Ruidoso is looking at high temps on Thursday in the mid 50's. Friday into Sunday is looking like the upper 40's to low 50's. Monday's high temps are forecast to be around 40.
Cloudcroft is looking at high temps on Thursday in the upper 40's. Friday into Sunday is looking like the low 40's to near 40. Monday's high temps are forecast to be in the upper 30's.
It will be a different story across eastern New Mexico Thursday night into early Friday morning. Light rain is forecast to change over to light snow from roughly Clovis northward. The heaviest snows are currently forecast to fall mainly north of I-40. It's possible that the Clovis/Portales areas may seen up to an inch of snow. Areas north of I-40 may see up to 4" - 6" of snowfall by Friday morning.
Clovis and Portales are looking at high temps on Thursday in the mid 60's. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 40's. Saturday and Sunday will see highs in the low-mid 50's. Monday's highs are forecast to be in the mid 40's.
For now it appears that the core of the storm track will slide across Central and Eastern New Mexico Thursday night and Friday morning. Therefore our chances of seeing any precipitation out of this storm, appears to be rather slim at this point. Should the upper level storm drop just a little further to the south than is currently being forecast, then our chances of seeing a light rain/snow mix Thursday night into Friday morning would increase.
Ahead of the cold front we are looking at high temps on Thursday in the low 70's. Friday will see highs in the upper 50's to near 60. Saturday and Sunday's highs will generally be in the low-mid 60's. Monday's highs are forecast to be in the 50's, if not colder, depending upon the strength of this next inbound storm.
This third storm to affect the state is still being advertised by the models to be the strongest and coldest of the three, and will arrive the first of next week. It has the potential to bring additional rain and snow showers to the area along with colder temperatures. The exact track and speed of this next inbound winter-like storm is still uncertain as of this writing, so check back here for all of the latest details.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!