Will We Get Our First Freeze This Week?

- Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Will We Get Our First Freeze This Week?

October ended on a rather tranquil note weather-wise here in SE NM, and November has certainly started off on the same note. After taking a look at last nights model runs, that trend will continue this week. If you love warm sunny days, and seasonably cool nights, then this is your kind of weather.

An upper level low was located near Houston, Texas this morning, and it is forecast to slowly lift off to northeast this week. Meanwhile, a stout upper level ridge of high pressure centered over southern California this morning, will dominate our weather throughout the rest of this week.

A reinforcing surge of cooler air from the north may produce the first light freeze across most of SE NM Friday morning. A few spots like Artesia, Lakewood, and Tatum have already experienced their first freeze, but most spots haven't. The airmass over the area is dry, and forecast low temps are only expected to be around the freezing mark, so a killing freeze is not anticipated.

The GFS, and ECMWF (European) models are forecasting the upper level ridge to break down, as it moves eastward by the end of this week. By the weekend, a shortwave trough of low pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere, is forecast to sweep across northern New Mexico. With the flow aloft returning to more of a zonal nature, this means that gusty southwesterly-westerly winds along with continued dry conditions, will return to SE NM late in the weekend into the first of next week.

A second, and possibly stronger system, is forecast by the models to affect the state in about a week from today. Unless this next upper level storm takes a more southerly track into the state, and picks up more moisture than the models are forecasting, it too appears to be another wind producer across the local area.

With La Nina in full bloom, this trend of these upper level storms zipping by to our north across northern New Mexico or southern Colorado, will more than likely continue for the remainder of the fall, and into the beginning of the winter. So far, I can't see anything in the long range models to indicate otherwise. So, as the polar jet stream becomes increasingly more active with time...we can look forward to more wind,and unseasonably warm temperatures, at least for awhile.

Long Term Average High-Low Temps For Nov 3rd-

Roswell Climate (1893-2009) 67 - 37

Bitter Lakes Wildlife Refuge Climate (1950-2009) 68 - 32

Artesia Climate (1905-2009) 67 - 36

Hope Climate (1905-2009) 68 - 38

Carlsbad Climate (1900-2009) 70 - 40

Carlsbad Airport (1942-2009) 67 - 39

Carlsbad Caverns Climate (1930-2009) 66 - 43

Tatum Climate (1919-2009) 64 - 34

Hobbs Climate (1912-2009) 67 - 40

Capitan Climate (1909-2009) 61 - 30

Ruidoso Climate (1941-2009) 60 - 26