A couple of weeks ago, I posted several articles on the potential for an arctic outbreak to "possibly" bring the coldest air we've seen since the 1960's, to southeastern New Mexico. It didn't happen, so I'm sure a lot of you got a good laugh out of that one. That's OK, it doesn't bother me. The models were wrong, and that's just part of the guessing game, especially when trying to figure out our weather a week to ten days in advance. It's not the first time that I have been wrong, nor will it be the last. That's OK too.
What About Our Future Winters?
A cold "PDO" was in place from the 1940's through the 1970's across the Pacific Ocean. Then we entered a warm "PDO" from the late 1970's until a few years ago. Now we are heading back towards another cold "PDO" episode. Please visit this link to learn more about "PDO's."
What happens out over the Pacific Ocean plays a determining role in deciding what happens to New Mexico's Climate. Generally speaking a cold Pacific Ocean tends to steer the jet stream away from the state, as well as it's source of subtropical moisture. Hence drier, and sometimes colder weather overall is experienced in our part of the world. This is pretty generic to say the least, but you get the idea. La Nina's tend to to be more frequent and stronger in cold PDO episodes. Our current La Nina that we are experiencing may be the strongest since 1950.
Combine a cold "PDO" and the current lull in the Sunspot activity, and I think that we are going to see some brutal winters return to the US in the near future. I realize that there are other factors involved, but I think that the handwriting is on the "Sun", and in the "Pacific Ocean".
Southeastern New Mexico has seen some brutally cold winter temperatures in the past. Low temperature readings of -15F to -35F, have happened in 1905, 1933, 1949, 1962 and 1963, 1951, and 1966. I think that we will see these bitterly cold temperatures return...maybe sooner than most think.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!