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Showing posts from February, 2011

The Windy Season Is Upon Us.

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GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Map  Valid 5 PM MST Fri March 4, 2011.
Mother Nature Calms Down For A Few Days.
As bad as yesterday's weather was, it could have ended up being much worse. Peak wind speeds were not as strong as forecast (see yesterday's summary for a listing of the peak winds across the area) across the Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County. That is not necessarily a bad thing either. The main core of the strongest winds aloft swept across the northern sections of southeastern New Mexico and eastern New Mexico. Thus the Roswell Airport peaked out at 63 mph, while gusts to 61-64 mph were recorded in the Clovis area.
March is upon us, and with this comes the beginning of the meteorological spring, and of course the official start to our windy season. This is not my favorite time of the year trust me. Given the fact that we continue to sink deeper into our ongoing drought, and the fact the La Nina continues to hang on, we can only expect more of what of we experienc…

Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event Sunday!

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This Mornings RUC 500 MB/18,000' MSL Analysis At 5 AM MST. GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Valid At 11 AM MST Sat Feb 26, 2011. GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast Valid At 11 AM MST Sun Feb 27, 2011. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook!

Update Sunday (6:00 PM MST) Feb 27, 2011-

A Dust Storm Warning Is In Effect For SE NM Until 8 PM MST.

Peak Wind Gusts Reported As Of 6:00 PM MST-

San Augustin Pass-East Of Las Cruces 89 mph Guadalupe Pass 84 mph
Bowl Raws 71 mph
Jdon-NE Of Alto 64 mph
Clovis-CW3200 64 mph
Lovington 64 mph
Roswell Airport 63 mph
Cannon AFB-Clovis 61 mph
Clovis Municipal Airport 61 mph
High Roll-CW5738 59 mph
2 SW Tatum 59 mph
Pinery Raws-Pine Springs 58 mph
Dunken Raws 57 mph
Cosmic Raws-Sunspot 56 mph
Smokey Bear Raws-Near Ruidoso 56 mph
Sacramento Peak 55 mph
Bat Draw Raws-Carlsbad Caverns 55 mph
Artesia Airport 55 mph
8-Mile Draw Raws NE Of Roswell 54 mph
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 53 mph
McKittrick Canyon Raws 53 mph
Woody Farms-11 N Hobbs 53 mph
South Hobbs-DW3455 53 mph
Carlsbad Airport…

Potentially Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event Sunday!

High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mtn's Today & Friday! SW Winds 30-45G60 MPH This Afternoon & Friday! SW-W Winds 55-75G110 MPH Sunday!
High Wind Watch SE NM Sunday! W Winds 35-45G65 MPH! Wide Spread Areas Of Blowing Dust!
Special Weather Statement From NWS EL Paso W Winds Sustained 40G70 MPH Sacramento Mtn's Sunday!
Red Flag Warning Continues This Afternoon & Friday! Fire Weather Watch SE NM/W TX Saturday/Sunday! Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Today Into Saturday! Extremely Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions Sunday!
Mother Nature is going to go on a rampage this weekend as a cold, and very strong upper-level storm sweeps across southern New Mexico on Sunday. This powerhouse of a storm will have incredibly strong mid/upper-level winds associated with it, that will combine with a very tight surface pressure gradient, and an approaching Pacific Cold Front, to produce a Potentially Dangerous High Wind/Blowing Dust/Fire Weather Event across SE NM Sunday.

Round One Of The Winds Today.

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GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Analysis At 11 PM Last Night. Upper-Level Trough Of Low Pressure Over Arizona Will Swing Across NM Today. As This Storm Approaches, Strong SW Winds Will Develop Over The Area.
Red Flag Warnings In Effect For SE NM & W TX Today. Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions! Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity Involving The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!
Fire Weather Watch SE NM & W TX Friday! Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions! Avoid Any Type Of Outdoor Activity Involving The Use Of Sparks Or Flame!
High Wind Warning Guadalupe Mtn's Today! SW Winds 30 - 45G65 MPH!
Wind Advisory Eddy/Lea Co's Today! SW Winds 25 - 35G50 MPH! High Temps In The Low 70's
Wind Advisory Lincoln Co Today! W-NW Winds 35G50 MPH!
A Few T-Storms Developed Across Parts Of West Texas Last Night, Generally From Just East Of Hobbs, Northeastward To The Lubbock Area. Seminole, In Gaines County, Picked Up .09" For These Storms.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook Today.
Pub…

Current Rainfall Deficits Across NM

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Current Water Year (Oct 1, 2010 - Feb 23, 2011) Rainfall Deficits.

Most of SE NM Has Received Less Than 10% Of Its Normal
Rainfall Since Oct 1, 2010. Most Reporting Stations Have
Received Less Than A Half Inch Of Rain Since Oct 1, 2010.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Continued Unseasonably Warm & Breezy.

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Red Flag Warnings Are In Effect For SE NM Today. A Fire Weather Watch Is In Effect For Thursday.
Low-Level Gulf Of Mexico Moisture Will Pool East Of The Dryline Tonight Across West Texas.
As An Upper-Level Disturbance Approaches From The West, A Few Scattered T-Storms Will Fire Up Tonight Into Thursday Morning, Along And East Of The Dryline.

SW Winds Will Increase Across SE NM Today At Around 20-25G35 MPH. Our High Temps Will Be Near 80. A Dry Pacific Cold Front Will Sweep Across SE NM Tonight.
Thursday Will Be Warm And Windy With SW Winds Increasing To 25-30G40 MPH Across SE NM. Our High Temps Will Range From The Low-Mid 70's.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook For Thu Feb 24, 2011.
The Seasons First Significant Severe Outbreak With A Moderate Risk Of Severe Weather.
A Few Large And Damaging Tornadoes Will Be Possible In/Near The Moderate Risk Area Depicted Above.
GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast At 5 PM Sat Feb 26, 2011.
A Stronger Upper-Level Storm Will Sweep Across NM Late This Upcoming Weekend…

Time To Transition From Winter To Spring.

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IR Satellite Image At 8 AM MST.
Upper-Level Low Was Located Just Off The Southern California Coast. There Isn't A Lot Of Mid-Level Subtropical Moisture Associated With It. The Pacific Ocean Is Cooler Than Normal Due To The Ongoing La Nina, So There Is Less Available Moisture For These Storms To Work With.
This Is The 500 MB/18,000' MSL Map At 11 PM Last Night.
It Shows The Upper Level Storm Digging Southward Just Off The Southern California Coast. Southwesterly Flow Aloft Covers The Desert Southwest.
This Is The GFS 500 MB/18,000 MSL Forecast Map Valid At 5 AM MST Thu Feb 24, 2011.
Our Southern California Storm Opens Up Into An Open Trough Of Low Pressure, And Moves Across SE New Mexico As Another Dry-Windy Storm.
Most Of Us Here In SE NM Will See High Temps In The Upper 70's - Low 80's This Week. Strong SW Winds Will Return Wednesday Afternoon & Thursday.
A Red Flag Warning Is In Effect For The Guadalupe Mtn's Today.
A Fire Weather WatchHas Been Issued For SE NM For Thu…

Current SE NM Rainfall/Snowfall Totals

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SE NM CoCoRaHS Rainfall/Snowfall Totals
(Oct 1, 2010 - Feb 21, 2011)

Chaves Co, NM
Eddy Co, NM
Lea Co, NM
Lincoln Co, NM
Otero Co, NM

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wind Advisory Today!

Warm - Windy - Dusty Today!

Peak Wind Gusts Reported Today-
(Update At 6:30 PM MST)

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 66 mph
Bowl Raws North of Guadalupe Pk 64 mph
Guadalupe Pass 59 mph
Dunken Raws 55 mph
Pinery Raws 53 mph
High Rolls 50 mph
Queen Raws 46 mph
McKittrick Canyon Raws 46 mph
Mayhill Raws 44 mph
Artesia Airport 44 mph
South Hobbs (DW3455) 44 mph
Sacramento Peak 43 mph
Tatum (CW0386) 43 mph
Paduca Raws 41 mph

Peak Wind Data Courtesy Of-

MesoWest Weather NCAR Surface Observations
Once again early this morning low clouds and fog are blanketing parts of SE NM. These will burn off shortly after sunrise this morning. Our overnight low temperatures have been very warm in part due to these low clouds and areas of fog the past couple of mornings. My low temp at my home in Carlsbad yesterday morning was 52, and as of 6 AM this morning 48.
Strong southwesterly winds are already kicking up across the Guadalupe and the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains as of 6 AM this morning. The Bowl Raws which is lo…

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