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Showing posts from May, 2011

Latest Updates From The SPC.

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Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Latest Severe Weather Outlook Courtesy Of The SPC. Latest Tornado Probability Outlook Courtesy Of The SPC. Latest Hail Proability Outlook Courtesy Of The SPC. Latest Probability Of Damaging T-Storm Wind Gusts Courtesy Of The SPC. Latest Mesoscale Discussion Courtesy Of The SPC.
Severe Weather Threat Increasing!

Supercell T-Storms Should Develop Between Now And 6 PM MDT.
Large Hail - Maybe Significant In Size - Damaging T-Storm Wind Gusts,
And Perhaps A Few Tornadoes Will Be Possible.
60% Chance That A Watch May Be Issued By 5 PM MDT.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

T-Storms This Afternoon Into This Evening.

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Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Today's Severe Weather Outlook Courtesy Of The SPC.
HPC 72-HR Forecast Precipitation Totals.
Here's Hoping For Some Much Needed Rain.
A cold front moved through SE NM overnight. It is forecast to stall near the NM/TX state line today, and then move northward as a warm front late this afternoon and evening. Our low-level moisture was swept out of the area with the frontal passage overnight. A return surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture will push northward into the area this afternoon, as the warm front retreats back to the north.
Thunderstorms are still forecast to break out across parts of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico later this afternoon, and may continue to roam around the area into the evening hours. Most locations across Southeastern New Mexico have a 30%-40% chance for rain today and tonight. Its been a long time since we have seen this.
Slight Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms-
Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to become sev…

Our Chances For T-Storms Still Looking Good.

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Maps Are Courtesy Of The HPC. Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Surface Cold Front Will Have Pushed Through Most Of SE NM By Around Midnight Tonight. Cold Front At Sunrise Tue Morning. Cold Front At Noontime Tue. Warm Front Retreats Northward By Around Sunset Tue.
Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight.
I have to admit that I am excited about our prospects of finally getting some rain (in the form of t-storms) tomorrow. The last eight months have been miserable to say the least. I have sucked down so much dust into my lungs that I am amazed that they continue to work. Like most of you I am sick and tired of the hot, dry, southwesterly winds, and the extreme drought conditions that continue to plague Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. To say that it is dry is the understatement of the year.
Some short term relief (hopefully) is coming in the form of scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. A cold front is forecast to enter the area later tonight...and will stall somewhere near the state line tomorrow  …

Finally...A Chance For Some Rain!

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Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Today's Severe Weather Outlook Courtesy Of The SPC. RUC 500 MB Analysis At 6 AM MDT This Morning. NAM 500 MB Forecast 6 PM MDT Tue May 31, 2011.
Finally....Maybe Some Rain On The Way!
Today-
For the first time since last fall, the dryline backed westward into Eddy County late last night. It has already started mixing eastward this morning, and will be draped across West Texas this afternoon. Once again it will back westward into Southeastern New Mexico tonight.
A Pacific cold front is forecast to move into the area late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Subtle short wave troughs of low pressure, are forecast to move across the area today into the middle of the work week from the southwest.
Low-level moist southeasterly upslope flow, will increase across the area tonight into Tuesday. The cold front is forecast to move northward as a warm front tomorrow afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located over the area as well tomorrow.
A few thunderstorms …

More Hot Weather - Hot, Dry SW Winds!

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Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them. Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.
NAM 500 MB Heights/Vorticity Forecast Map Valid At 6 PM MDT Today. NAM Forecast Surface Based Cape Values
Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.
NAM Forecast CIN Values Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.

Today's SPC Severe Weather Outlook.

Today's SPC Fire Weather Outlook.

More Hot Dry Windy Weather For SE NM!

West Texas-

The dryline will is draped across the Permian Basin of West Texas this morning. Dew point temperatures along and east of the dryline are in the 60's. An upper-level low is slowly dropping southward out of the Great Basin.
Surface based cape values are forecast to range from 2,000-3,000 j/kg along and east of the dryliine this afternoon and evening across the Permian Basin. Bulk wind shear values are forecast at around 50 knots, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. However, there will be a fairly stout cap in place across the area. This may inhibit thunderstorms from developing across the area this afternoon an…

Yesterday's Highs - This Mornings Lows.

Location High Yesterday Low This Morning Chaves Co




Roswell Arpt 102 68 8-Mile Draw Raws 103 63 Dunken Raws 97 65


Eddy County High Yesterday Low This Morning

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