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Finally....Maybe Some Rain On The Way!
For the first time since last fall, the dryline backed westward into Eddy County late last night. It has already started mixing eastward this morning, and will be draped across West Texas this afternoon. Once again it will back westward into Southeastern New Mexico tonight.
A Pacific cold front is forecast to move into the area late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Subtle short wave troughs of low pressure, are forecast to move across the area today into the middle of the work week from the southwest.
Low-level moist southeasterly upslope flow, will increase across the area tonight into Tuesday. The cold front is forecast to move northward as a warm front tomorrow afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located over the area as well tomorrow.
A few thunderstorms may fire up along and east of the dryline in West Texas this afternoon. As the dryline backs westward into Southeastern New Mexico later this afternoon and early tonight, there is a slight chance that a few thunderstorms could fire up over parts of the area.
A strong cap will be in place across the area this today. The cap may break later this afternoon across West Texas. A few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will have the potential to develop along and east of the dryline, late this afternoon into this evening if this happens. The main severe weather threats would be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.
A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mtn's for southwesterly winds that are forecast to become sustained at around 30-45 mph with gusts near 60 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Otero County for southwesterly winds sustained at around 25-35 mph with gusts of up to around 50-55 mph. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for all of the local area because of the Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions that continue to plague the area.
Better Chance For T-Storms Tue-
A more widespread threat for thunderstorms will occur across all of the local area on Tuesday. In fact our chances for seeing measurable rainfall have been raised up to 40% here in Carlsbad and Hobbs, 30% in the Artesia area, and 20% in Roswell. These percentages may change today and tomorrow as new data becomes available via the forecast models.
Severe thunderstorms may break out across parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas Tuesday into Tuesday evening. At this time it appears that large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall would be the primary severe weather threats. Spotter Activation may be requested Tuesday across parts of the local area.
We can only hope that this pans out considering how extremely dry it has been, and given the fact that the drought continues to worsen with time. Most of Southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas have not received a decent rain since last September or October.
With the possibility of severe weather returning to the area tomorrow, now would be a good time to review some severe weather safety tips. The Lubbock, Texas National Weather Service Office recently published this Severe Weather Safety Guide. I realize that it is intended for the folks that live in the Lubbock area, but the same severe weather safety tips also apply to the rest of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. Please take a look at it and share the link with your family and friends.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!