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At 9 AM MDT, Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Adrian was located 375 miles SSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico and was moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. Adrian has sustained winds of 135 mph with gusts near 160 mph. Adrian's central pressure is 948 MB's/27.99".
The computer models continue to struggle with the eventual remnants of Adrian in the long term. They are generally trying to bring the remnant moisture of Adrian northward into the Desert Southwest by around the middle of next week. I must stress that nothing is certain at this point. Its still possible that Adrian will remain too far to the west for this to happen.
The models are likely to continue to waffle back and forth with the track of Adrian's remnant moisture for the next several days. Much of what happens to Adrian s remnant moisture will be determined by the strength, and placement of the mid-upper level ridge of high pressure over the area next week.
The Effects Of Remnant Moisture From Hurricanes In SE NM-
Hurricane Alex made landfall along the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas at the end of June of last year. His remnant moisture moved northward and into southeastern New Mexico, then stalled over the area the first couple weeks of July. Heavy rainfall fell over the area as a result of this. Dissipating hurricanes and their remnant moisture can produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across SE NM and W TX from time to time.
Many locations across SE NM picked up close to one-half of their annual rainfall totals in about three weeks during July of last year. This again was due in a large part to the remnants of former Hurricane Alex's moisture stalling over the local area.
Compare this event to this years situation where most reporting stations have received less than a half an inch of rain so far this year. I have always said that our live in the land of extremes here in SE NM. Its highly doubtful that even if the remnants of Adrian do get pulled into the local area sometime next week and beyond, that we would see the rainfall totals like the remnants of Alex produced over the local area last July. However, if this should happen then hopefully we would at least see some decent rainfall totals from this potential moisture influx. Waiting to see.
Selected July 2010 Rainfall Totals-
Elk Climate 6.54"
3.5 WNW Downtown Roswell 5.33"
7.6 NNW Downtown Roswell 3.03"
Roswell Arpt ASOS 2.89"
33.3 WSW Carlsbad - Queen 10.36"
0.9 NE Lakewood 8.01"
Carlsbad Climate 7.36"
3.1 SSE Carlsbad 7.27"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 7.08"
2.0 N Downtown Carlsbad 6.84"
1.1 NNE Downtown Carlsbad 6.83"
1.9 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 6.77"
15.5 S Artesia 6.62"
2.2 N Downtown Carlsbad 6.23"
Carlsbad Arpt ASOS 5.54"
15.5 NW Carlsbad 5.13"
Artesia Climate 3.64"
17.1 NW Carlsbad 3.46"
19.8 WNW Carlsbad 3.29"
Hobbs Climate 8.52"
8.0 SSE Hobbs 7.53"
8.3 SSE Hobbs 7.15"
0.4 NNE Downtown Hobbs 6.62"
26.6 WNW Jal 6.22"
0.9 NNW Downtown Lovington 4.56"
Tatum Climate 2.76"
4.4 NW Ruidoso 7.69"
Capitan Climate 5.59"
Ruidoso Climate 5.15"
4.9 NE Cloudcroft 12.73"
Cloudcroft Climate 12.21"
0.4 ESE Cloudcroft 11.46"
4.0 E Cloudcroft 10.72"
2.3 S Cloudcroft 10.06"
1.8 SW Cloudcroft 9.61"
16 ESE Cloudcroft - Mayhill 8.38"
Rainfall Totals Are Courtesy Of-
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!