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This mornings satellite image above, clearly shows a mid level tropical low (Tutt Low) located over south-central Texas. This low is forecast to continue moving to the northwest today, and should be located over or near SE NM by tomorrow.
This image also shows the Monsoonal flow (grey shaded area) surging northward out of Mexico and into most of Arizona. Forecast models call for the Monsoonal flow to gradually shift eastward with time. Southern and central New Mexico should receive beneficial rains from the monsoon this week.
Valid From 6 AM This Morning - 6 AM Friday.
SE NM Plains-
As the mid level low approaches the area later today into tonight, lift ahead of it should help to kick off a few widely scattered t-storms across the southeastern New Mexico plains. Our chances of seeing measurable rainfall here in Eddy, Chaves, and Lea Counties isn't all that great today into tomorrow, only about 10%.
By Tuesday, the mid level low is forecast to have moved northeastward and out of the area. Our best chances for rain will come Tuesday through Thursday, as the Monsoonal flow shifts eastward into southern and central New Mexico.
Southeastern NM will remain on the eastern fringes of the Monsoonal flow this week, but enough moisture should filter into the area to increase our chances for rain. Current forecasts increase our chances of rain to 20% - 30% Tuesday into Wednesday night.
Guadalupe - Sacrament - Capitan Mtn's-
T-Storm chances will increase across the mountains today into the middle of next week. Cloudcroft and Ruidoso have about a 30% chance of seeing measurable rainfall today and tomorrow, and this increases to 40% - 60% by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Areas of locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the mountains, especially from tomorrow into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding may become a concern over, and near the burn areas caused by this springs wildfires.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!