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Showing posts from September, 2011

Will Our Drought Last Another 10 Yrs?

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Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.
Worst Drought In Our History Rages On.
Nearly everyone I talk to asks me the same question...when is this drought going to end? I've been telling everyone that my fear is that it could last at least a couple more years, if not longer, maybe even 10 years before it breaks. Most of these people look at me like I have two horns growing out of the side of my head when they hear this. Its a shocking statement no doubt. But read this article below and then tell me I'm wrong. Believe me I hope I am!
Texas Drought Could Last Another 9 Years! (I think this apply's to New Mexico as well.)

Update- 1:20 PM MDT.

Click On This Link For More On The Story.
"Could The Texas (New Mexico) Drought Last Another 10-15 Years?
Quote- " By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 3:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2011 The devastating Texas drought that has already cost over $5 billion could continue for nine more years, predicted Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon in an…

High Based T-Storms Produce Blowing Dust.

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Click On The Photos To Enlarge Them. Looking East From C-Hill, At A High Based Dry T-Storm  East Of Carlsbad, NM. Dry Microburst In Progress With  Blowing Dust  Spreading Westward Towards The City.  Pockets Of Blowing Dust Being Driven By The Virga Bombs. Virga is Rain That Falls From The Cloud Base, But Evaporates Before It Reaches The Ground.  The Dust Whirl To The Right Is Not A Tornado. T-Storm Bases Were Around 11,000' AGL. Blowing Dust To The Right Spreading Westward. From The West Side Of C-Hill Looking To The Northwest. Looking At Happy Valley From The West Side Of C-Hill. Trails Of Virga To The West Over The Foothills
Scattered high based, dry t-storms formed ahead of, and along a cold front as it moved southward into SE NM yesterday afternoon and evening. There were several reports of tornadoes in the Roswell area yesterday afternoon from the public. To my knowledge tornadoes did not touch down. Dry microbursts were developing with most of these t-storms, and were producing pockets o…

T-Storms On The Increase.

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This is the 248 NM Composite Reflectivity (CR248) Image. Cannon AFB Doppler Radar (GRLevel3) View At 1:54 PM MDT.
Snapshot Of "My SE NM Radar" Available On My Web Page Of The Cannon AFB Doppler Radar At 1:55 PM. MDT.
This is the 248 NM Composite Reflectivity (CR248) Image. Midland NWS Doppler Radar (GRLevel3) View At 1:53 PM MDT.
Snapshot Of "My SE NM Radar" Available On My Web PageOf The Midland NWS Doppler Radar At 1:55 PM. MDT.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Cold Front Tonight - Maybe Some T-Storms.

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Forecast Position Of The Surface Cold Front At Noon Today.
Forecast Position Of The Surface Cold Front At 6 PM Today.
Forecast Position Of The Surface Cold Front At Midnight Tonight. Maps Are Courtesy Of The NWS HPC.
Outlook For Today & Tonight. Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.
Another ridiculously hot day is on tap for SE NM today. High temps are forecast to be in the 92 - 97 range this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. The front should arrive in the local area after dark, and will continue pushing southward to the state line by midnight tonight. 
Cooler air filtering into the area behind the front tonight will knock out daytime highs back down to around 80 for tomorrow. The mid 80's are forecast for Saturday and Sunday should see the upper 80's for highs.
A few scattered t-storms will develop ahead of and along the cold front this afternoon. Some of these will be capable of producing wind gusts to around 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall. Gusty nor…

It Is Fall Right - So Cooler When?

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Outlook For Today Into Tonight. Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.
2 PM MDT Temperatures. Map Is Courtesy Of Dr. Ryan Maue's Web Page (Under Construction)
A Look At Radar This Afternoon. Snapshot Of "My SE NM Radar" At 3:53 PM MDT.
A few widely scattered rain showers and t-storms are developing southward across eastern Chaves, and Eddy Counties this afternoon. They have generally been drifting off to the southwest at around 10 mph. Gusty winds and dry lightning strikes will accompany these storms into the early evening before they dissipate later.
A Little Cooler Friday & Saturday-
It is fall right. It is but you would not know that this afternoon given the current temp map above. Summer refuses to give up. I firmly believe in the old adage of "What Goes Up - Will In Time, Come Back Down" rule. Its just a matter of time.
Surface Cold Front At 6 PM MDT Thursday Afternoon. Map Is Courtesy Of The NWS HPC.
A cold front (really more like a cool front) will move sout…

Sunspot #1302 CME Sept 26, 2011.

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Courtesy Of NOAA NWS SWPC.
Here's an animation of the model SWPC used to accurately forecast the Coronal Mass Ejection's (CME) arrival. The model, known as WSA-Enlil shows a view from above the north poles of the Sun and Earth, with the Sun shown as a yellow circle and the Earth as a green circle. The animation shows where density is high (as in the CME) in the colors of red, white and black, and where density is low (as in the background solar wind) in colors of blue and green. The CME is the curved, high density structure that transits from the Sun to the Earth. From the animation, it is clear we missed the center of the CME.
2011-09-26 19:00 
The fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from NOAA Active Region 1302 arrived this morning at 1237Z (8:37am Eastern Time).  It has kicked off moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms for low latitudes, but high latitudes are seeing severe (G4) levels of activity.  Aurora watchers in Asia and Europe are most favorably positioned for this …

Weatherwise Magazine's 2nd Place Winner.

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Weatherwise Magazine's 2011 Photo Contest 2nd Place Winner. Storm Chaser Leah Robertson of Albuquerque, New Mexico.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Fall & Winter Outlooks.

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Current State Of The Drought. Map Is Courtesy Of The Climate Prediction Center.
Drought Outlook. (Sept 15th - Dec 31st.) Map Is Courtesy Of The Climate Prediction Center.
How Much Rain Would It Take To Get Us Back To "Normal"? (SE NM 6" -  9") Map Is Courtesy Of The Climate Prediction Center.
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October 2011 Outlooks-
Temperature Outlook For Oct 2011.

Precipitation Outlook For Oct 2011. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011 Fall Outlook-
Temperature Outlook For Oct - Dec 2011.
Precipitation Outlook For Oct - Dec 2011. -----------------------------------------------------------------
2011 - 2012 Winter Outlook-
Temperature Outlook For Jan - Mar 2012.
Precipitation Outlook Jan - Mar 2012. Maps Are Courtesy Of The Climate Prediction Center.
Our outlook for the fall and the winter looks very bleak as far as precipitation is concerned. The worst drought in the histor…

Hot Weekend!

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RUC 500 MB Analysis At Noon Today. Map Is Courtesy Of The COD.
A deep upper-level low pressure trough was centered over the Great Lakes Region at noon today. Meanwhile our old summer nemesis, the sprawling Western upper-level ridge of high pressure, was centered near Reno, Nevada. The ridge will dominate our weather over the weekend.
Forecast High Temp Map Valid For Sunday. Map Is Courtesy Of The COD.
Record High Temps For Sunday Sept 25th-
Roswell 97 in 2005+ Artesia 100 in 1953 Carlsbad Climate 100in 1953 Carlsbad Arpt 102 in 2005 Hobbs Climate 99in 1951 Tatum Climate96in 1939

After a brief cool down yesterday and today, a hot weekend is on tap for SE NM. High temps are forecast to climb up to near 95 tomorrow, and will range from 95 -100 on Sunday. A few daily record high temps may be tied or broken across the local area on Sunday.
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Major Hurricane Hilary.
Image Is Courtesy Of The NHC. Visible Satellite Image Of Cat. 4 Hurri…

Low Clouds Forming Behind The Cold Front.

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Click On The Photos To See What Happens.
Cirrostratus clouds above, with Stratocumulus clouds   forming below, west of Brantley Lake St. Park this morning.  Looking west down St. Hwy 137 at the junction of US Hwy 285.
I think the horses are glad to see cooler weather.  Cirrostratus clouds above, with Stratocumulus clouds   forming below. Looking west from near the junction of St. 
 Route 524, and US Hwy 285 north of Carlsbad, NM this morning.
Visible Satellite Image Of NM At 8:45 AM MDT. 
A cold front moved into the Pecos Valley early this morning and is continuing to push south as of this writing. Stratocumulus clouds at a couple of thousand feet above the ground are forming in the low-level northeasterly upslope flow behind the front.
 I shot the two photos above this morning. If you look at the visible satellite image of the state above, you can see the stratocumuls field thickening up over the Central Mountain range, and extending northward from Ruidoso to the Clines Corners area , and then…

A Little Cooler & A Few T-Storms.

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Click On The Maps To See What Happens.
Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.
Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.
Cold Front At Noon Today. Map Is Courtesy Of The NWS HPC.
Precipitation Forecast Wed - Sat. Map Is Courtesy Of The NWS HPC.
According to the calendar fall will begin early Friday morning at 3:04 AM MDT. But the meteorological fall begin the first day of the month. It will certainly feel more like fall tomorrow as the cold front draped across the area this morning gets a secondary push southward tonight.
Today's high temps will be close to seasonal and will range from the low-mid 80's. Cooler air will overspread the area tonight behind the front. Therefore high temps on Thursday will range from near 75 - 80.
Our temperatures will quickly rebound on Friday with highs expected to be in the mid 80's, while Saturday will see highs near 90, and Sunday's highs will range from 90 - 95. Our overnight low temps through the weekend will be near seasonal normal&#…

Latest Updates On The Cold Front.

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Click On The Maps To See What Happens.
Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.
Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.
Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.
Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.
This Next Developing Tropical Storm Could  Send Us Some Much Needed Rainfall Late Next Week. Map Is Courtesy Of The National Hurricane Center.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Another Cool Down.

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Click On The Images To See What Happens.

T-Storm SE of Carlsbad, NM catching the days last rays.
Another Cold Front - Another Shot At Rain.
Cold Front Today. Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.
Cold Front At 6 AM MDT Wed Sept 21, 2011. Map Is Courtesy Of The NWS HPC.
A strong upper-level storm, sweeping eastward across the northern plains states over the next couple of days, will kick another early fall cold front south into the local area tomorrow. This cold front is not forecast to be as strong as last weeks front.
 High temps today will range from near 90 to the low 90's. Tomorrows highs will be a little cooler, with readings ranging from the low 80's to the mid 80's. Thursday will be the coolest day, with highs ranging from the upper 70's to the low 80's
A few isolated t-storms will dot the landscape this afternoon and evening. A better chance for scattered t-storms will occur tomorrow into Thursday along and behind the cold front. I don't think that we…

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