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Forecast Position Of The Dryline & Cold Front At 6 PM.
RUC 500 MB Analysis At 09Z/3 AM MDT.
RUC 500 MB Forecast At 21Z/3 PM.
A large mid-upper level storm located over the Central Rockies is in the process of splitting in two early this morning. The southern piece of this storm will close off near the Four Corners Region tonight. Meanwhile, the dryline has backed westward into SE NM. It will slowly mix eastward later this afternoon. A Pacific cold front currently draped over Central New Mexico will slowly move eastward and into SE NM tonight.
High temps today will range from 85-90 across SE NM. The winds will not be as strong this afternoon as they were yesterday. South to southwesterly winds gusted up into the 35-45 mph range yesterday afternoon in the Pecos Valley. Ruidoso had gusts in the 50-55 mph range.
A few scattered t-storms are forecast to break out along and east of the dryline by this afternoon and evening. Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.
The Setup Parameters-
Surface based cape values will range from 1,000 - 2,000 j/kg east of the dryline. Mid level lapse rates do not look to be too steep until later this evening, when colder air aloft from the west, begins to filter into the area. Bulk wind shear values will range from 40 - 50 kts. One of the main limiting factors this afternoon for the initiation of severe t-storms, will be the lack of significant lift. The best atmospheric lift will not arrive until tonight when the mid-upper level storm gets a little closer. So its possible that the bulk of today's potential severe weather will not occur until tonight. There is also the possibility that tonight's severe t-storms may develop into a linear mode producing a squall line.
Some of these t-storms that form along, and east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, will have the potential to become severe across parts of SE NM and W TX. A few supercell t-storms will be possible. We have a 20% chance of seeing severe t-storms this afternoon and evening here in the Pecos Valley. The Hobbs area has a much better chance of seeing t-storms. They will have have a 30% chance this afternoon, and a 60% chance tonight.
As of 7 AM MDT this morning, there is a 20% chance that I will be requesting Skywarn Spotter Activation across parts of the Midland, TX National Weather Service County Warning Area this afternoon.
All Skywarn Spotters in the local area are requested to be on standby today, and be prepared for the possibility of activation later today. This will be especially true from Lea County eastward into W TX.
A Pacific cold front will slowly work its way eastward and into the local area tonight, and then stall out across W TX tomorrow and Sunday. Cooler weather will filter into the area this weekend behind the front. Our high temps will mostly be in the 70's with our overnight lows dipping down into the 40's. Fall has arrived.
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For More Details Concerning Today's Severe Weather Potential.
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