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Thursday - Friday.
Forecast Position Of The Cold Front At 6 PM Thu.
WRF-NMM 500 MB Forecast Map.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Thu Oct 6,2011.
A few scattered rains showers and t-storms are roaming the plains of SE NM early this morning. A few of the mountain communities received some decent rainfall totals yesterday afternoon and overnight. As of 5:30 AM MDT, some of the heaviest of these include-
The Hodge Podge Lodge (Ruidoso) 1.36"
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 1.09"
Carrizozo Airport .77"
Smokey Bear Raws Near Ruidoso .48"
Mescal Raws - Mescalero .45"
8-Mile Draw Raws NE Of Roswell .27"
Mayhill Raws .22"
Roswell Airport ASOS .19"
Artesia Airport AWOS .15"
Dunken Raws .14"
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns .11"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad .03"
Overall this activity should end by around noontime today as the upper-level disturbance now located over western New Mexico, moves northeastward and into the Texas Panhandle by this evening. High temps today should be in the mid 80's.
Thursday - Friday-
A stronger, and much colder mid-upper level storm (500 MB temps forecast to be -20 to -25F) will slowly crawl eastward to central Utah by Thursday afternoon. The dryline is forecast to become established over eastern and southeastern New Mexico tomorrow into Friday. A Pacific cold front is forecast to move into the local area on Friday.
Scattered t-storms should return to parts of E/SE NM & W TX Thursday afternoon as the atmospheric instability and moisture content increases. Severe t-storms will be possible in these areas, especially on Friday. Just exactly where the greatest threat for severe weather will be is a little uncertain at this time. However, a few supercell t-storms will likely form along and east of the dryline especially on Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will produce localized flash flooding also.
Spotter activation remains a possibility across the area especially on Friday.
Thursday afternoon will likely become windy across the area as the surface pressure gradient tightens up, and the mid-upper level storm and cold front approach from the west. S-SW winds sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph can be expected, especially across the northern areas and near the mountains.
Cooler temps are forecast for the area this weekend behind the cold front with highs mostly in the 70's. Our overnight lows will likely dip down into at least the upper 40's.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!