Wild Temperature Roller-Coaster Ride This Week.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

New Mexico Today - Sunny & Warm.

New Mexico Mid Week - Turning Much Colder.
Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.
(Map Added At 8:40 AM MDT.)

5-Day Precipitation Forecast Valid Monday - Saturday.
Map Is Courtesy Of The NWS HPC.
(Map Added At 7:50 AM MDT.)

Update At 5:20 PM MDT Today-

I sat down with Mike Jackson, who is the News Director for the KSVP/KTZA Radio Stations in Artesia, NM this morning, and we discussed the 2011 - 2012 Winter Outlook for SE NM. You can listed to that Podcast via this link- Winter Outlook.

Very Warm Ahead Of The Next Strong Cold Front.

A wild ride temperature-wise is in store for SE NM this week. High temperatures will be in the upper 80's today across the area. We can expect to see the upper 80's to the low 90's tomorrow. Wednesday's high temperatures will be tricky to forecast. If the approaching cold front arrives sooner than the models indicate, then we will not get quite as warm. If it is slower than forecast, then we will be warmer than currently is being indicated. For now it appears that we will be mostly in the 80's for highs on Wednesday.

A strong mid-upper level storm is forecast by the models to drop southward into the Four-Corners Region by Wednesday. The NAM model sweeps this storm eastward fairly rapidly, while the US GFS is slower and stronger with this feature. The European model (ECMWF) develops a stronger closed low near the Four-Corners, and lags the storm behind into the end of the week.

As this strong winter-like mid-upper level storm approaches the state from the northwest, a strong modified arctic backdoor cold front will plow into the eastern plains on Wednesday. This front will arrive in southeastern New Mexico sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

A much colder airmass (the seasons coldest to date) will invade the area Thursday and Friday. Highs will likely only be in the 50's on Thursday, and the 60's on Friday. Overnight lows will dip down into the upper 30's to near 40 Thursday morning. Friday mornings low temperatures will be at least in the mid 30's across most of the area. Some of us may even see our first freeze or frost of the season Friday morning.

Strong gusty northerly winds will accompany the frontal passage. Areas of blowing dust may pose a few problems across the area as the front plows southward Wednesday evening.

There will be a chance for a few isolated rain showers and perhaps a t-storm or two Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The further north and east you go the better the chances of getting wet. Our chances for rain now stand at around 20% - 30%.

A few light snow showers will be possible across the Sacramento Mountains Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as snow levels drop down to around 7,000' MSL. At this time no significant accumulations are anticipated.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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