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Three Winter Storms Over The Next Week?



Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Blog Updated at 3:37 PM MST.
Today Into Sunday-

Cool weather is expected to prevail across the area through the weekend. We should see our afternoon high temperatures reach the upper 40's today. Our lows tonight are forecast to be in the mid-upper 20's. Highs tomorrow and Sunday should be in the mid-upper 40's, there may be a few spots that reach 50 or so.

Scattered rain showers will start doting the landscape Saturday into Sunday at the lower elevations of the southeastern plains. Our chances for rain will increase as we head into Sunday night.

Snow levels are forecast to be high this weekend across the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains. Any snow that falls should be confined to elevations above about 8,000' Saturday and Sunday. Snow levels are forecast to fall Sunday afternoon, as the upper-level storm to our west approaches. They are forecast to drop down to around 5,000' by Sunday evening across southern New Mexico.

Low clouds and areas of fog may return to parts of SE NM, and W TX tonight into Sunday. If you have travel plans through the Guadalupe Pass area tonight into tomorrow morning, please be aware that there is the possibility of light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain tonight into tomorrow morning.

Sunday Into Monday-

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 5 AM MST This Morning.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast.
(Today Through Wednesday.)

Our next Winter Storm is slowly sinking to the south over southern California this morning. It is forecast to cutoff from the Polar Jet Stream to its north, and then settle in over the northern Baja Region by tonight into Saturday night. The models then move it slowly across southern Arizona and New Mexico Sunday into Monday.

There is not a good consensus among the models concerning the exact track and speed of this storm at this time. It should be noted that cutoff upper-level lows are notorious for behaving badly as far as model forecasts are concerned at times.

So, if this storm moves slower, and further to the south than is currently being forecast, then our chances for seeing a wintry mix of precipitation here in SE NM would increase. Our chances for accumulating snowfall would also increase over parts of the local area.

Should this storm move further to the north, and faster than what is currently being forecast, then our chances for a wintry precipitation mix would decrease. We would then be looking at more of a rain event, and if it moved far enough to the north and fast enough, then we would just get the strong westerly winds and colder temperatures.

Another important player in our weather during this time frame, will be a cold front that is currently forecast to enter the local area either late Sunday night or early Monday morning. If this front is faster than forecast, and arrives in SE NM by Sunday night, then we would have the potential to see more of our rain change over to snow sooner.

If the front is slower than forecast, and does not arrive until later on Monday, then we would be looking at more rain than snow here locally.

Current thinking (as of early this morning) is that the Sacramento Mountains around the Cloudcroft area, could see 4" - 7" of new snow from this storm. This will be subject to change, depending upon the eventual track and speed of our storm approaching from the west.

Current thinking from the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office Forecasters is that there could be heavy snowfall across parts of eastern and northeastern New Mexico Sunday night into Monday. I-40 could be impacted with heavy snow possible across parts of the corridor from the Tijeras Canyon east to the state line, as well as northward into northeastern New Mexico. This too may change depending upon the speed and track of the upper-level storm to our west and the arrival times of the cold front.

Christmas Week Into The Christmas Weekend-

GFS 500 MB Forecast Valid At 5 PM MST Mon Dec 19, 2011.

GFS 500 MB Forecast At 5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

GFS Surface Temperature Forecast At 5 PM Christmas Day.

An active pattern that has prevailed across the Desert Southwest for the past month now will continue next week. Its simply too early to try and nail any specific details down in this very active winter patter we are currently experiencing.

As Winter Storm #1 departs the area on Monday, the models are forecasting that Winter Storm #2 will be taking shape over the southern California area on Monday. This storm may impact the state during the Tuesday - Thursday time frame. Winter Storm #3 could take aim on New Mexico by the Christmas weekend. I think that we have a shot at seeing a White Christmas here in southeast New Mexico this year.

Stormy Period Ahead.

A very complicated and stormy weather pattern will prevail this weekend into the Christmas weekend. At least three Winter Storms may impact the state, as well as southeastern New Mexico during this time frame. Arctic air is poised to move into the local area late Sunday night or early Monday morning, and an even stronger surge of colder air will be possible late next week into the Christmas weekend.

There is the potential for travel problems around the local area, and the rest of the state late this weekend into next week, as well as into the Christmas weekend, at times. Mother nature and old man winter are not going to make travel very easy for some of us across parts of the state at times during the next week. For the very latest road conditions across New Mexico please visit "New Mexico Roads."

I will keep my web page updated with the very latest details concerning our potential multiple bouts with wintry weather across the area over the next week. I appreciate those of you who visit my site, thanks for checking in.

You can also find the latest details on our local National Weather Service Web Pages-

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