Blog Updated At 12:55 PM MDT.
Surface Map forecast Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.
This Map Was Issued At 11:53 PM MDT Friday Night.
This Updated Map Issued At 11:30 AM MDT Saturday.
A cold front will slowly slide southward today into this evening into southeastern New Mexico. It will retreat northward as a warm front later tonight into tomorrow morning. The dryline will remain parked across west Texas today, but will slosh westward back into southeastern New Mexico tonight.
A mid-level short wave is forecast to approach the area tomorrow evening, while the dryline is forecast to sharpen up across southeastern New Mexico tomorrow afternoon. Low level southeasterly upslope flow will return tonight behind the cold front and dryline. A fairly decent supply of Gulf of Mexico moisture will return to the area and will aide in the development of t-storms on Sunday.
Today will be mostly sunny and warm across the local area. Most of us will see afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80's to near 90. Sunday will be a little warmer with our afternoon highs climbing back up into the low 90's.
A few isolated thunderstorms may break out along the retreating frontal boundary this evening across far southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. A few isolated severe thunderstorms ( severe thunderstorms produce hail that is one inch in diameter, or the size of quarters or larger, and t-storm wind gusts of 58 mph or higher) will be possible, especially just to the east in west Texas across the northeastern Permian Basin this evening.
Surface based cape values are forecast to be around 3300 j/kg, along with steep mid level lapse rates, and impressive heliciity values this evening. Therefore, a few isolated supercell t-storms will be possible, especially in west Texas in the northeastern Permian Basin area.
There currently is a 20% chance for Skywarn Storm Spotter Activation across far southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas this evening. There will be a better chance for Skywarn Storm Spotter Activation across parts of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas on Sunday.
Sunday looks even more favorable for scattered thunderstorms across the area. A few of these thunderstorms may be of the supercell variety, especially across Lea County northward into eastern New Mexico, and eastward into west Texas. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, deadly cloud to ground lightning, and damaging t-storm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, along with localized heavy rainfall.
Mixed layer cape values are forecast to be around 1500-2000 j/kg on Sunday, along with effective wind shear values of 40-50 knots. Surface dew point temperatures are forecast to be around 60-degrees along and south of the frontal boundary, and east of the dryline. The low-level jet will fire up across the area around sunset, and this will aide in the development of a few supercell thunderstorms.
Some of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing some locally heavy rainfall amounts, but overall the coverage of these storms is forecast to be rather scattered in nature, so most of us may not see significant rainfall.
I plan on chasing tomorrow across southeastern New Meixco and maybe west Texas.
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