Better Chance For T-Storms & Cooler.

Blog updated at 5:10 PM MDT.









Today's MODIS Aqua Visible Image.

An upper-level low is curled up over the Texas Panhandle,
while cumulus clouds develop over eastern & southeastern
New Mexico. Towering cumulus is forming along the east
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Smoke from the 
Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire is visible in southwestern
New Mexico. As of this mornings update the fire had burned
259,025 acres and is still only 20% contained.

A large complex of thunderstorms developed over northeastern, and eastern New Mexico eastward into parts of west Texas yesterday afternoon and evening. Radar estimates indicate that the heaviest rains fell over northeastern New Mexico, and the South Plains of west Texas. Click on this link for additional rainfall totals observed across the state yesterday.

Most of the thunderstorm activity missed southeastern New Mexico. Although a few spots did manage to pick up a few hundredths of an inch of rain. A CoCoRaHS station located 3.5  miles west-northwest of Roswell measured .04", and Mayhill measured .02".  The 8-Mile Draw Raws northeast of Roswell measured .01", as did the Smokey Bear Raws near Ruidoso. A personal weather station in Mayhill measured .03". Cannon AFB picked .25". A personal weather station in Milinsand (north of Tatum) picked up .55".

A relatively moist and unstable airmass blankets the area this morning. A weak upper-level disturbance is draped across northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Numerous outflow boundaries from yesterday's thunderstorms also cover the area. These features will combine to give us a shot at scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Most of us have a 20% - 40% chance of getting wet. A few of the stronger storms could become severe and produce large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall. At this time Skywarn Spotter Activation is not anticipated. 

High temperatures yesterday ranged from 104 at the Paduca Raws, 101 here at my home in Carlsbad, 100 at the Roswell and Carlsbad Airports, to 99 at the Artesia and Hobbs Airports.

 Gusty winds accompanied the frontal passage yesterday afternoon which was aided by outflow wind gusts from the nearby thunderstorms. Peak gusts include 56 mph at the Bat Draw Raws at the Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center, 48 mph at the 8-Mile Draw Raws, 47 mph at the Artesia Airport, 46 mph at the Hobbs Airport, 44 mph at the Dunken Raws, and 41 mph at the Carlsbad Airport. 

Today is expected to be about ten degrees cooler than yesterday with most of us seeing high temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's. Tomorrow and Thursday will be a little warmer with highs mostly in the mid 90's. Friday into the weekend will see a return to the upper 90's to the low 100's. 

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Winter In New Mexico This Year?

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