Will Miriam Affect Our Local Weather By Next Weekend?


(Saturday Sept 23, 2012).



Looking back at yesterday's high temperatures, the hottest reading occurred at the Paduca Raws (3,510' MSL) located near the WIPP Site with a reading of 97. The coolest high was recorded at the Sierra Blanca Snotel station (10,280' MSL) with a reading of 62. Not far behind was the Sacramento Peak station (9,255' MSL) located in Sunspot with a high of 67.

 With a dry airmass in place over the area we can see some pretty good temperature spreads, not only with elevation, but also between our morning lows and afternoon highs. For instance I recorded a morning low here in Carlsbad yesterday morning of 55 and an afternoon high of 95. That's a 40-degree temperature spread.

Tropical Storm Miriam.



Tropical Storm Miriam was located about 530 miles south of the very southern tip of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. Miriam had sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts. Her central pressure was at 100 milibars, or 29. 53 inches of mercury. Miriam continues to move off to the northwest at around 8 mph, and is forecast to continue this track into the middle of next week. Tropical Storm Miriam will likely strengthen into a Hurricane by the first of next week.

Will Miriam's Remnant Moisture Affect Us?


Valid At 6 PM Friday Sept 28, 2012.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday Sept 28, 2012.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday Sept 28, 2012.

Whether or not the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Miriam gets pulled up into southeastern New Mexico in about a week to ten days is still up in the air this morning. The GFS forecast model and its ensembles says yes, and brings the remnant moisture of Miriam into southwestern Arizona by late next week. Meanwhile the European (ECMWF) forecast model dissipates the cyclone over the Baja Region by the end of next week, and keeps her remnant moisture mostly out of our local area.

Notice how much cooling takes across northwestern Mexico and into southern Arizona and western New Mexico by next Friday as forecast by the GFS model. If this forecast model is correct then the cooling will be a result of the cloud cover and rains associated with the remnants of Miriam. Next week will be interesting as we watch all of this unfold.

For now, it appears that we will see our daytime high temperatures cool down into the mid 80's by late next week, as mid and high level clouds associated with Miriam overspread the area from the southwest. We may even see an increase in thunderstorm activity as well.

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