Thunderstorms are slated to return to the area this afternoon, some of which may continue off and on overnight tonight. An even greater chances for thunderstorms will exists on Friday. Our chances of getting wet from today into Friday evening are generally in the 30% to 60% range.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the local area today into this evening, and again on Friday. As of 5:30 AM MDT this morning, we have a 30% chance of spotter activation across parts of the Midland National Weather Service County Warning area today. The best chance of this occurring will likely be across Eddy, Lea, and Culberson Counties this afternoon and evening, and perhaps across parts of west Texas.
An even greater threat for severe thunderstorms will exists on Friday with spotter activation possible across much the Midland National Weather Service County Warning area.
Any severe thunderstorm that develops today into tonight will be capable of producing large hail (at least the size of quarters...maybe even larger), damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, deadly cloud to ground lighting, along with locally heavy rain which could cause some localized flash flood problems.
With the approaching potent upper-level cutoff low to the west, a sharpening dryline in place along with the approaching Pacific cold front from the west, decent wind shear and instability, we cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado or two, especially on Friday.
As the Pacific cold front pushes eastward out of the local area Friday afternoon and evening, we will see a decrease in thunderstorm activity here in SE NM as these storms moves into west Texas. Strong gusty southwesterly to westerly winds will develop behind the cold front with some gusts possibly higher than 45 mph, especially over and near the mountains.
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