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Coming Cold Will Be A Shock - But Nothing Unusual.

Blog updated at 3:09 PM MST.

Continued Spring-Like Today & Saturday.




On Sunday December 6, 2012.





Valid At 5 PM MST Today, Friday December 7, 2012.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NCEP GFS Temp Anomally Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday December 8, 2012.

 My high temp here at my home in Carlsbad on Sunday was 81F. The Paduca Raws (Remote Automated Weather Station) which is located near the WIPP Site, southeast of Carlsbad, reported a high of 82.

 This will likely be the last time that we see 80-degree temps for some time to come. Although I must admit that making this statement does make me a little nervous given the unusually warm temperatures we have been experiencing over the past month. Mother nature does love to make liars out of us weather nerds.

Another near perfect early (meteorological) early winter day is on tap for us today. Our afternoon highs are forecast to once again rise up into the mid 70's. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer before the bottom of the theromoter falls out on Sunday.

A Turn To Much Colder Temps On Tap.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday December 9, 2012.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Sunday December 9, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday December 9, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Max Snow Depth Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Monday December 10, 2012.

Valid 5 AM MST Sunday December 9, 2012.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday December 9, 2012.

 This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NCEP GFS Max Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday December 9, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NCEP GFS Max Temp Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Monday December 10, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NCEP GFS Max Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Monday December 10, 2012.

Sometimes its really frustrating going through all of the model forecasts as they wander all over the place, and this has been especially true the past couple of days. I was expecting more flip flopping, and it seems I'm not going to be disappointed. 

One thing is clear though, and that is we are in for a rude awakening come Sunday when the arctic cold front arrives. Not that we are going to see record breaking temperatures, but because we have been living on easy street temperature-wise for the past month, the coming cold snap will seem seem worse than it really is. A reality check will occur Sunday night into Tuesday, as the bottom of the thermometer falls out, and we see temperatures more typical for the first week of December.

Gone for a few days will be the balmy highs in the 70's and 80's, to be replaced with highs in the 40's. Should the arctic air arrive a little sooner than expected on Sunday, we may not get out of the 40's. For now we are anticipating the 50's Sunday, Monday's and Tuesday's highs will also be in the 40's, unless the storm digs further south, and produces more snow than currently is forecast.  

Speaking of snow, yes we have a slight chance of seeing some light snow across southeastern New Mexico Sunday night into Monday morning. Whether or not we end up with anything significant is going to depend upon the track of the mid-upper level low. For now the models aren't offering much hope of anything sticking on the ground. But as I have been saying for the past couple of days, this too could change, so stay tuned.

Strong gusty northerly winds will hearld the arrival of the arctic airmass in the area Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Our wind chill values are forecast to dip down into the single digit terriorty, so be sure to bundle up good when you send the kiddos off to school Monday morning, and head to work.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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