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Latest Update On The Pending Pattern Change.



High pressure at the mid-levels of the atmosphere (see the 500 millibar or 18,000 Mean Sea Level Map above) over the Desert Southwest continues to dominate our local weather. Thus more unuusually warm and tranquil weather for southeastern New Mexico. Meteorologicaly speaking winter begin yesterday (December 1st) but try telling that to mother nature. Feels more like the beginning of spring than the beginning of winter.







You really couldn't ask for much nicer weather than what we have been experiencing the past month. Yes its warm and dry but at least the wind hasn't been too bad so far. Our beautiful weather will continue this week with one minor interruption occurring on Tuesday when a weak cold front enters the area. This dry cold front will knock out daytime highs down on Tuesday to the mid 60's, after we see the mid 70's on Monday. 

The rest of the week will continue to see above normal temperatures. Our highs will range from the low 70's on Wednesday, to the upper 70's to the low 80's on Thursday, the low to upper 70's on Friday, and the low 70's on Saturday.

A Pattern Change By The Weekend?

Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday December 8, 2012.

Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday December 8, 2012.

Both the U.S. GFS and the European (ECMWF) forecast models develop a mid-level trough of low pressure across the Western, and the Southwestern U.S. by this upcoming weekend. They both keep a baggy trough over this area into the middle of December. There is a lot of discussion in the weather world concerning a stormy and cold December ahead. It appears that a shift from the warm and quiet pattern we have seen over the past month, towards a colder and stormier one for much of the U.S. east of the Rockies is in the making.

Valid At 5 AM MST Monday December 17, 2012.

The GEFS 500 MB Ensembles are really getting excited about a deep winter storm centered over the Four Corners by the 17th. Since this forecast (see the map above) is fifteen days out its hard to put much confidence in this forecast. But what should be noted here is the progressive change over from a ridge of high pressure dominating our local weather to a stormier and colder trough of low pressure. 

Valid At 5 PM MST Monday December 10, 2012.

Should the GFS model be correct then we will see our temps coming down by the 10th. Please note that the computer forecast models will likely undergo some changes with their forecasts between now and the weekend. A change is coming, this much is clear, but what is not clear at this time (a week away) is how cold will it get, and if there will be any snow for the state, especially for the mountains. I will keep you posted this week. Thanks for stopping by and visiting my web page. Have a great week ahead all.

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