Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST NAM 500 MB Analysis.
Forecast Valid At 11 AM MST Monday January 21, 2013.
Our mid-winter thaw is underway thanks to a ridge of high pressure (map above) that will keep the storm track away from New Mexico for awhile. Warming temperatures under mostly sunny skies are forecast for today into this weekend.
Temps At 11 PM MST Last Night.
For a time last week it appeared that we would get a blast of Polar air into the area early next week, but this is not going to happen now. The Polar Vortex will remain too far east over northern Canada for the bitter cold airmass associated with it to drop this far south and west next week.
Forecast Temps At 11 AM MST Monday January 21, 2013.
A cold front will slide down the eastern plains and into southeastern New Mexico Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing with it a brief bout of colder temps. The brunt of the coldest air will remain well to our north and east though. After a brief cool down Monday and Tuesday we will quickly warm back up for the rest of next week.
5 PM MST Today.
5 PM MST Saturday.
5 PM MST Sunday.
5 PM MST Monday.
Valid At 6 PM MST Sunday January 20, 2013.
Valid At 11 PM MST Tuesday January 29, 2013.
Winter is far from being over. While the 500 millibar ridge rules the picture now and keeps the storm track away from New Mexico for the next week, last night GEFS Ensembles are forecasting the ridge to break down across the Western U.S. in about a week to ten days, with a trough of low pressure once again becoming established. This will shift the storm track back into our are along with colder temps.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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