Looking at the map above we see that our next winter storm to affect New Mexico and surrounding areas was entering the Pacific Northwest as of midnight last night. Remember we are looking at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the 500 millibar level, or roughly at the18,000' Mean Sea Level.
This storm will produce a variety of weather over the state and nearby areas.A few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of west Texas this weekend, some of which may be severe across the extreme eastern areas of west Texas.
GFS 500 MB At 5 PM MST Friday.
GFS 500 MB At 5 PM MST Saturday.
A strong closed low is forecast to form over southern Nevada by around sunset tomorrow. Last nights run of the GFS and ECMWF models both shear a piece of this storm out across Colorado and Wyoming on Saturday. The upper level trough of low pressure will linger behind with another closed low developing late this weekend into early next week.
Strong southwesterly winds will kick up the dust across southern New Mexico and perhaps southeastern New Mexico on Saturday as the upper-level storm approaches from the northwest, and the Pacific cold front approaches from the west.
A High Wind Watch has already been issued for the Guadalupe mountains for Saturday by the Midland National Weather Service Office. Southwesterly winds are forecast to become sustained at speeds of 40 - 55 mph with gusts of around 70 - 80 mph.
Across southern and southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of around 25 - 35 mph with gusts near 50 mph on Saturday. Areas of blowing dust will also develop.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of southeastern New Mexico on Saturday. Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions will develop as the strong winds kick in. Please refrain from any outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flame.
GFS 500 MB At 5 PM MST Sunday.
GFS 500 MB At 5 PM MST Monday.
GFS 500 MB At 5 PM MST Tuesday.
GFS Snow Depth At 5 PM MST Tuesday.
ECMWF Total Snowfall By 5 PM MST Tuesday.
GFS Temp Anomaly Forecast At 5 PM MST Tuesday.
Any shift in the approaching storms track will have an effect on our local weather. Unless this first storm digs further to the south on Saturday, and at this time it does not appear that it will, then it we may be facing another high wind and blowing dust event.
Our second storm due early next week must also dig further to the south than what the models are currently forecasting if we are going to get any precipitation out of it. At any rate windy and colder conditions will occur across the area by Tuesday as colder air moves southward behind this storm.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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