Warm and breezy today and tomorrow ahead of an approaching storm inbound from the Pacific Northwest. Highs across southeastern New Mexico are forecast to climb up into the low 80's today, and the upper 70's to low 80's tomorrow.
Southerly winds will gust up to around 30 mph or so on Friday, and westerly winds will gust up to around 40 mph, or possibly higher on Saturday. Areas of blowing dust may also develop on Saturday. Sunday will be cooler with highs in the 50's.
Chance For T-Storms Friday?
As the upper-level storm approaches the area from the west Friday afternoon and evening, the dryline is forecast to sharpen up along the NM/TX state line. Low-level southeasterly upslope flow from the Gulf of Mexico will increase along and east of the dryline Friday afternoon into Friday night.
The atmosphere is forecast to destabilize Friday evening with mucape values of around 1,000 j/kg, and 60 - 70 knots of shear will aide in the development of scattered thunderstorms. A few of these thunderstorms may be of the supercell variety and will be capable of producing large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and perhaps an isolated tornado or two.
At this time (as of 5:30 AM MST Thursday morning) the greatest threat for severe weather appears to be across west Texas. Although its possible that a few thunderstorms may break out across parts of southeastern and eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening.
Windy & Dusty Saturday - Cooler Sunday.
Strong westerly winds are forecast to rake the state Saturday as the upper-level storm pulls off to the northeast into southwestern Kansas, and a Pacific cold front sweeps eastward across the state. Westerly gusts of 50 - 60 mph appear likely at this time, with stronger gusts possible across the mountains, especially the Guadalupe's.
Rain showers are forecast to change over to snow over the Sacramento mountains Friday as snow levels lower down to around 6,000' MSL by Saturday morning. Snow showers are forecast to continue into Sunday in the Ruidoso and Cloudcroft areas. A couple inches of snow may be possible across the higher peaks, but at this time no significant accumulations are expected.
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