Another warm and windy day is on tap for southeastern New Mexico. Our afternoon highs will rise up into the upper 80's to near 90 today. Southwest winds gusting up to around 35 - 40 mph are once again expected today.
A few isolated severe thunderstorms may break out across parts of west Texas this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will be draped over the area, along with the dryline. A triple point axis is expected to set up near the Midland/Odessa area. The best chances for severe weather will occur along and east of this intersection. As of 8:00 AM MDT this morning, Skywarn Spotter Activation is not currently anticipated in the Midland National Weather Service County Warning Area today or tonight.
Surface based cape values are forecast to be 4,000 j/kg or higher, lifted index values of -10, mid level lapse rates of 9 degrees c/km, 0-3 km helicities values of 150+, and bulk shear wind values of 40-60 knots. Any thunderstorm that manages to break the cap will quickly become severe. It appears the main threats at this time will be large hail, and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.
Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Wednesday-
Wednesday has the potential to see a significant severe weather outbreak from Central Texas northeastward into to just southwest of the Chicago area. Much of Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and southwest Missouri are forecast to be ground zero for severe thunderstorms. Large hail, some of it may be very large, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, and heavy rains that may lead to flooding and flash flooding will all be possible within the above highlighted areas. Tornadoes are also expected some of which may be of the violent and long track type.
Parts of Northern & Northeastern NM May Get Snow.
ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast @ Noon MDT Thursday.
ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Forecast @ Noon MDT Thursday.
Wednesday Could Be Another Brownout Day For Us.
Wednesday will be another warm but windy and dusty day across the local area. Southwesterly winds gusting up to around 40 -50 mph appear likely. A High Wind Watch is out for the Guadalupe mountains for southwesterly winds sustained at around 35 - 55 mph with gusts or around 65 - 70 mph Wednesday into Wednesday night. Areas of blowing dust will also be possible across southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas.
Red Flag Warnings for Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions are in effect for today. Similar conditions are forecast to continue into Thursday. Please refrain from any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flame today into Thursday. Any fire that may be accidentally started will have the ability to rapidly spread and grow in the very dry and windy conditions.
Yet Another Freeze Possible Wednesday Night.
A strong cold front will sweep into the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage on Thursday with most of us seeing afternoon highs only in the 50's. Freezing temperatures will be possible over southeastern New Mexico Thursday night into Friday morning.
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