Significant Severe Weather Threat Next Week For Tornado Alley.
SPC Forecast Mean Supercell Composite Parameters.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, April 7, 2013.
SPC Forecast Mean Supercell Composite Parameters.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, April 8, 2013.
A significant round of severe weather appears to be shaping up for early next week. Trying to pin the details down of just exactly where and when at this time is hard, mainly due to the uncertainty in the placement of the next strong upper-level storm that is forecast to dig into the Four Corners Region by early next week.
Supercell thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding, and tornadoes across the above mentioned areas early next week. Some of these tornadoes may be of the large and long track variety.
Severe weather could break out as early as Sunday afternoon, but will be more likely Monday into Wednesday. The exact details of this event will likely change between now and next week so pay attention to your local weather conditions folks. Its spring and heads up time.
DAY 4-8
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BECOME CONFINED
TO THE SWRN PORTION OF
THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST. THE WRN TROUGH WILL EJECT
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY
MID-WEEK AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. BY THIS TIME...SEASONABLY RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH EWD TOWARDS
THE MS VALLEY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE
RETURN OCCURRING
BENEATH A STOUT EML...A MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP.
DESPITE AVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH REGARD TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC
FEATURES BY D5-6...INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RENDER
A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GREATEST DISCRETE SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL WITH PRIMARILY
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST
ON D5 AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE...AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM AND
DEVELOP EWD TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY WITH PRIMARY RISKS BECOMING DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES ON
D6. PRIOR TO D5...A LOCALIZED BUT ENHANCED
RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/FEW TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE
DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION EXPECTED TO BE INVOF NWRN KS ON
MON EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 04/05/2013
Its that time of the year to really start paying attention to the weather for those of you who live in Tornado Alley. Please keep abreast of your local weather conditions via these links-
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, April 8, 2013.
GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, April 8, 2013.
Both the European and the U.S. GFS forecast models pretty much agree that a strong upper-level trough of low pressure will be digging southward into the Great Basin late this weekend. By Monday both models are forecasting a strong closed upper-level low to form, but where? Last nights 00Z run of the European (ECMWF) model places the center of the low over northern Arizona by 6 PM MDT Monday. This mornings 12Z run of the GFS models has the center of the low over southeastern Wyoming by 6 PM MDT Monday. That's a huge difference in location between the two models.
Valid @ Noon MDT Tuesday, April 9, 2013.
GFS Surface Forecast @ Noon MDT Monday, April 8, 2013.
ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Next Wednesday.
ECMWF 24-Hour Total Rainfall Forecast
Valid @ Midnight MDT Tuesday, April 9, 2013.
Carlsbad, NM.
A combination of high winds, areas of blowing dust, along with extremely dangerous fire weather conditions will return to New Mexico early next as the next winter-like storm barrels into the area. Some areas of northern and northeastern New Mexico may also see snow, not to mention colder weather too.
It would also be prudent to keep an eye on the dryline...just in case it gets pulled westward into eastern New Mexico and lights up with severe thunderstorms early next week.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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