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Showing posts from August, 2013

Lordsburg, NM Gets 2.35" Of Rain.

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NWS 24-Hour Mesonet Rainfall Totals.
Lordsburg, NM Davis WeatherLink Summary.
Lordsburg got lucky yesterday evening when a thunderstorm dumped 2.35" of rain on them. Once again most of the rain remained over southern New Mexico and bypassed southeastern New Mexico. Hot dry weather is forecast to continue into at least the first of next week.
Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.
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Southern New Mexico Gets Rain.

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Snapshot Of My SE NM Radar. Using Holloman AFB Radar @ 6:19 AM MDT.
Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals. Via The El Paso/Santa Teresa NWS Dual Pol Radar Using GRLevel 3.200 Software.
Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals. Via The Holloman AFB Dual Pol Radar Using GRLevel 3.200 Software.

NWS Mesonet Rainfall Totals As Of 6 AM MDT.
It is raining but not in southeastern New Mexico. A hot and dry week ahead is in store for us with our afternoon high temperatures forecast to range from the low 90's to near 100 today into the first of next week.
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Latest 10-Day Rainfall Forecasts.

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ECMWF 10-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
GFS 10-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
Canadian (GEM) 10-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
Overall the models are not very optimistic when it comes to rainfall for southeastern New Mexico over the next ten days. However, a tropical wave now located over Texas, will move northwestward into southern New Mexico by Wednesday, and this feature will increase our chances for scattered thunderstorms to break out on Tuesday. 
With the eastern Pacific now becoming more active with tropical storms, the Atlantic Basin is forecast to do the same, it would not take much of a pattern shift to get the monsoon to swing back further to the east, and bring some more rainfall back into the area. So this will have to be watched in the coming weeks.
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Sunset.

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Another stellar New Mexico sunset this evening.
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Our Nights Are Slowly Getting Cooler.

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NWS Mesonet Low Temps As Of 6:30 AM MDT.
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Good Morning Southeastern New Mexico.

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ECMWF Forecasting A Better Chance For Rain Down The Road.

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 ECMWF 10-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
ECMWF 24-Hour Rainfall Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, August 25, 2013.
ECMWF 10-Day Max Temp Anomaly. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, August 25, 2013.
ECMWF 850 MB MSLP Forecast. Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 24, 2013.
Every once in awhile a Hurricane will form south of the Baja Penisula, work its way northward, and sometimes spread its remnant moisture into our neighborhood. This mornings run of the European (ECMWF) computer model is forecasting just such an event in about a week from this coming Sunday. 
Notice its forecast of much cooler temps, and widespread moderate to heavy rains on Sunday, August 25th via the maps posted above. Will this pan out...maybe, maybe not. I'm sorry but its just a tad early to know for sure so we will just have to wait and see.
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Another Day Of 100-Degree Temps.

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NWS Mesonet High Temperatures Reported Sunday.
For the most part August has been fairly hot and dry over southeastern New Mexico. Contrast this with July which was a cool and wet month for the local area. So far this month I've only manged to squeeze .10" out of my rain gauge here at my home in Carlsbad. Today will be another day with afternoon high temps in the upper 90's to the low 100's. 
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If Only I Could Reach The Moon.

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Invest AL92 Over The Yucatan Peninsula - Future Of Storm Highly Uncertain.

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Courtesy Of The NHC.
IR Satellite Image @ 12:15 PM MDT.
Model Forecast Tracks Of Invest AL92.



Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday.
Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Saturday.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Sunday.
With out a doubt the models are really struggling with the easterly wave that is currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula. Since this wave is over land now, and highly disorganized, the models are simply all over the place with their forecasts concerning this system. None of them appear reliable at this time in my opinion.
 Yesterday I thought that this system would be named Erin but that's not to be. Tropical Storm Erin has formed about 115 miles west-southwest of Brava, in the Cape Verde Islands. Erin will generally continue moving westward for the next several days. For now, I won't focus much on this system since it will not be impacting the U.S. mainland anytime soon, if at all.
Back to our storm that is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Friday...which will be named Fernand if it strengt…

Trouble In The Gulf Of Mexico - Or Will Invest AL92 Be A Dud?

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Blog Updated At 2:15 PM MDT Today.

Tropical Disturbance Invest AL92. 
An area of disturbed weather located northeast of the tip of Honduras and the Cayman islands may now be forming a surface low. This tropical disturbance has a 50% change of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours, and a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next five days. It is likely to continue moving off towards the northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days and then is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. 
IR Funktop Image @ 9:15 AM. MDT This Morning.
Invest AL92 Model Track Forecasts.
Canadian Computer Model Forecast Of Invest AL92.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Friday Morning.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday Morning.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Sunday Morning.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday Morning.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday Morning.
Valid @ Midnight Tuesday, August 20, 2013.
Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico will headline the news this weekend into next week if the Canadian GEM computer forecast m…

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