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More Rain Tonight - More Potential Flash Flooding?


WRF Composite Radar Reflectivity Forecast Image.
Valid At 1 AM MDT Tuesday Morning Morning.

Composite Radar Reflectivity Forecast Image.
Valid At 2 AM MDT, Tuesday, Sept 17, 2013.


Total Rainfall Forecast For Tonight.
Valid At 2 AM MDT, Tuesday, Sept 17, 2013.

This is one of those times when I would like to just chunk the computer forecast models. I think that they do not have a very good handle on the remnant moisture that Ingrid is sending north tonight into our local area. 

The WRF model depicted above is far less aggressive with its forecast but breaks the t-storms out earlier (around 1 AM Tuesday morning), with rainfall totals of around .50" to 1.00".

The High Resolution Model depicted above worries me with its forecast tonight of  1" - 4" inches of rain or possibly more, tonight into early tomorrow morning, for western sections of Eddy County and southwestern Chaves County. Should this pan out then we would have additional significant flash flooding in our arroyos. I hope this model is wrong. 


FGUS84 KMAF 162150
RVSMAF
NMC015-172150-
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...Notable river level rises observed on the Pecos River...

Runoff from recent heavy rains in southern New Mexico continue to pour
into the Pecos River near Artesia. Recent observations show the river
level at the action stage of 12 ft and slowly rising. At this level the
river will overflow it`s banks causing minor flooding to adjacent areas
impacting farms and ranches and any roadways near the river. The river
may be at these elevated levels for a few days before subsiding.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
313 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

An active pattern is shaping up across the region this week.  An
upper ridge is still dictating most of the weather today, but it
appears this feature will weaken somewhat and move eastward with
time.  A host of shortwave troughs will circulate around the
eastward retreating western fringe of the upper ridge and move over
the region the next several days.  The first such mid level wave is
spinning off the remnants of Tropical Storm Ingrid and resulting in
scattered showers and thunderstorms over south Texas this afternoon.
Expect it to continue northwest and move over the forecast area
tonight and Tuesday.  The latest GFS is the most bullish breaking
out precipitation over the area tonight, but think it may be
suffering from convective feedback and will not go with PoPs quite
as high as it portends.  Still, will carry a chance of rain for most
areas.  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as PWats will be at
least 1 to 1.5 inches.  Will have the following shift monitor
southeast new Mexico in particular, as any appreciable rainfall
could result in more flooding there.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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