Strong Back-Door Front Still On Track For Tuesday.



12Z/5 AM MST GFS 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST GFS Wind Chill Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday.


12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

12Z/11 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday.

12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday.

We are still on track to see a strong back-door arctic cold front plow into southeastern New Mexico by Tuesday. The models continue to differ with the fronts timing as far as its arrival is concerned.

 The U.S. GFS model still wants to bring the front into our local area Tuesday afternoon. While the European model (ECMWF) has it knocking on our front door by sunrise Tuesday morning. 

If the GFS model is correct then our high temperatures across southeastern New Mexico will range from the mid 50's to the low 60's on Tuesday. If the European model is correct then our highs will only be in the upper 40's to low 50's if not colder on Tuesday.

Either way we are only going to receive a glancing blow from this blast of cold air. Take a look at the temperatures at the 850 millibar level, or the 5,000 Mean Sea Level, as depicted by both models above. Its obvious that the colder core of this arctic airmass will remain well off to our northeast.

It will also be interesting to watch and see if this front has enough ump to push eastward through the central mountain chain, and spill westward into the Rio Grande Valley. 

Strong gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will also accompany the frontal passage..with wind chill values dropping down into the 30's. So it will definitely feel rather raw and chilly when the front does arrive. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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