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Arctic Air Still Poised To Invade New Mexico.


Blog Updated At 3:36 PM MST.

ECMWF Computer Model Forecasts.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Friday, Dec 6, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 7, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Total Precipitation Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday, Dec 6, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday Dec 8, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid This Week For Denver, Colorado.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid This Week For Clayton, New Mexico.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid This Week For Lubbock, Texas.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid This Week For Hobbs, New Mexico.

If the this mornings run of the European (ECMWF) model is right then the arctic cold front will be knocking on our front door by sunrise Thursday morning. However it should be noted that arctic cold fronts have a history of surging further south, and sometimes further west than what the models indicate. I suspect that this is going to be the case with this one as well.

It appears that the models are still continuing to struggle with the depth of the arctic air so I expect to see some changes in our local forecast temperatures. I wouldn't be too surprised to see us end up colder, longer, than what the models are currently indicating.

U.S. GFS Computer Model Forecasts.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS MLSP Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Friday, Dec 6, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Snow Depth Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Wind Chill Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 18Z/11 AM MST GFS Precip Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Forecast.
Valid For Clayton, New Mexico This Week.

High Wind Watches/Warnings For Tuesday-




This mornings 12Z run of the U.S. GFS computer forecast model looks odd to me. It is trying to dig the upper level trough of low pressure deeper into the Desert Southwest by Wednesday evening. Its acting like it wants to cut a piece of this energy off, possibly forming a low over the Desert Southwest later in the week? 

If the GFS is to be believed then it appears that the arctic cold front will not make it into southeastern New Mexico until late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening. Even so this mornings run of this model is forecasting a temperature of 14F with a wind chill of 4F at Clayton, New Mexico by 5 PM MST Thursday.

 Make no mistake about it this is going to be a very cold airmass that is headed our way. There are some model differences concerning the timing of the arrival of the arctic cold front...but when it arrives our temperatures here in southeastern New Mexico and surrounding areas will plunge.

Our temperatures here in southeastern New Mexico and nearby local areas will drop below freezing, and possibly stay below freezing, potentially as soon as Wednesday night. We may be looking at temperatures that stay below freezing Thursday into Saturday. Just how soon our temperatures drop will depend upon just how soon the arctic cold front arrives. 

A mixed bag of wintry precipitation will also be possible along with the cold temperatures. Many questions remain concerning this potential however. It appears that we could see a light mix of light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, light sleet, and perhaps some light snow. Again generally as early as Wednesday night into Saturday. More on this later as the computer forecast models get a better handle on the incoming winter storm.

 No doubt the models continue to struggle with the evolution of this next winter storm that is headed our way. It will be interesting to see what the European (ECMWF) is forecasting when this mornings 12Z run is available later today. The ECMWF has been the coldest model with this arctic airmass for the past several days.

Ahead of the approaching very cold airmass southeastern New Mexico will be flirting with a few near record to record high temperatures on Tuesday. This mornings Midland National Weather Service forecast high temp on Tuesday for Carlsbad is 81F. The record high temperature for Carlsbad for Tuesday, December 3rd is 82F set in 2008.

 This mornings Albuquerque National Weather Service forecast high temp on Tuesday for Roswell is 77F. The record high temperature for Roswell for Tuesday, December 3rd is 80F set in 1977.

Strong and gusty southwesterly winds are forecast to rake the local area tomorrow as the upper-level trough of low pressure digs south and deepens over the Desert Southwest. These winds are forecast to gust up into the 40 mph range tomorrow across the southeastern plains. These winds are forecast to gust up to around 70 mph in the Guadalupe's, and up to around 60-65 mph across the northern Sacramento mountains.. 

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