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Down Goes The Thermometer - And You Won't Believe For How Long!



This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday, Dec 5, 2013.

This mornings run of the European (ECMWF) model really wants to try and dig the long-wave 500 millibar trough of of low pressure deeper and further to the southwest. Will a piece of this energy break off and form a closed or cutoff low over the Desert Southwest? Remains to be seen.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday, Dec 6, 2013.

By Saturday it appears to be re-loading with a deeper shortwave dropping into southern Nevada and southern California. This will have to be watched because if in fact a piece of that energy does in fact manage to break off, and close off over the Desert Southwest, then life will get really interesting around here going into the weekend.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, Dec 9, 2013.


Holy cow who opened up the gate to the North Pole and forgot to close it? Tell me that isn't a really deep long wave trough, straight out of the arctic, stretching south, all the way down to Mexico City!

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday, Dec 6, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday, Dec 6, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 850 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday, Dec 6, 2013.

A closer look at the 850 millibar level, or roughly the 5,000' Mean Sea Level, indicates that a very cold pool of arctic air will be working its way southward down the eastern plains of New Mexico. Tatum down to -13C/9F by Saturday...that's cold for this time of the year.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Tuesday, December 3, 2013.

 This mornings 12Z/5 AM MST run of the European (ECMWF) model has the arctic cold front arriving in the Clayton, New Mexico area around midnight tonight.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday, December 4, 2013.

 The front appears to stall or just very slowly move southward during the day on Wednesday. Carlsbad is expected to flirt with the 80-degree mark for an afternoon high temp today, and the mid 70's tomorrow. 

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday, December 5, 2013.

By sunrise Thursday morning the ECMWF model has the front knocking on the front door of Tatum. Check out its forecast temps for southeastern Wyoming and northeaster Colorado...-20F to -25F. Clayton will be around 12F at least according to this models forecast.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Friday, December 6, 2013.

By around noontime Friday most of southeastern New Mexico will only be in the 20's expect (maybe) the Pecos Valley, which might crawl up to a little above freezing, if we are lucky.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ Tuesday, December 10, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS
 6-Hourly Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday, December 10, 2013.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
 Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday, December 10, 2013.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid For Clayton, New Mexico.

WOW! This mornings run of the European model drops Clayton's temperature down to below freezing by Wednesday night, and keeps it there for the next eight days! 

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid For Clovis, New Mexico.

Clovis doesn't fair much better and if they are lucky may climb up to around 40F by Sunday...but then they fall back down below freezing again until Thursday, December 12th.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid For Roswell, New Mexico.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Forecast.
Valid For Tatum, New Mexico.

This is a forecast graph of the temperatures and precipitation for the next 10-days for Tatum, NM. The top graph is the temperature forecast. Its starts out at 04/00 which is 00Z on Dec 4th, or 5 PM MST today. 04/12 is December 4th or tomorrow at 5 AM MST.05/00 is 00Z or 5 PM MST tomorrow and so on. The grid points are for every 12-hours and run through the next 10-days. 

This is just one models forecast of the impeding cold coming...but is overall gives you a fairly good idea of what is headed our way. COLD...maybe for the next week.

The numbers on the left hand side of the graph are the temperatures. The red line down the middle of the graph is the freezing mark - 32F.

Check out Tatum's forecast low temp of 0F a week from tomorrow...seriously? 


"Possible winter weather Thursday night into Friday morning. Ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch for the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Sleet and snow accumulations up to an inch for the northeast Permian Basin and Guadalupe Mountains. This may lead to hazardous driving conditions Friday morning. There is still some uncertainty with this system, so check back in for later forecasts."

Please Check With These Local NWS Office Web Pages
 For The Very Latest On This Dangerous Winter Storm-






Links To Area Road Conditions-




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Texas - Use #txwx
New Mexico - Use #nmwx

I didn't want to get too picky with the different model forecasts concerning this event. There still just remains too much difference between the individual models, and with each new run every 6-12 hours, to try and pin this storm and its exact affects on the local area down. Without a doubt this is going to be another very complicated winter storm that is going to affect all of New Mexico, and surrounding areas,Wednesday into at least the first of next week, if not longer.

Undoubtedly there are major changes coming to our weather. An unusually strong arctic cold front will usher in sub-freezing temperatures by Thursday. There are some fairly good indications that this cold arctic airmass is going to settle in over the area from Thursday into possibly the middle of next week. If the models are right we may warm up slightly on Sunday before another re-enforcing surge of cold arctic air sets up camp over the area again. 

For now it appears that we will once again see a wintry mixed bag of precipitation. This will include drizzle, freezing drizzle, rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, or a combined mix of all of the above.

I expect to see changes to our local forecasts as the models get a better handle on this potentially Dangerous Winter Storm. So please check my web page often for the latest updates via the links I have provided. Or visit your nearest local National Weather Service Office Web Pages via the links above.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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