Time For America To Have A Reality Check
Concerning (Global Warming) Climate Change.
Latest Update On Our Ongoing Winter Storm.
24-Hour Rainfall & Snowfall Forecasts.
Just before sunrise this morning the center of the 500 millibar (roughly 18,000' MSL) closed low was located near San Diego. Looking at the latest satellite images (enhanced IR image above) shows a deep subtropical fetch of moisture being pulled northward into Arizona and New Mexico ahead of this powerful mid-level storm. This will continue into Saturday at least.
Local regional radar composites show an increase in the snow cover (light blue shaded areas, the green and yellow indicate rain) across the eastern and northern southeastern plains at 9 AM. The pink shaded areas indicate a mix of rain, sleet, or rain and snow.
Not much overall change in my thinking concerning our local weather today. A sloppy mix of rain, sleet, and snow will prevail. Basically the higher up you go the better the chances for accumulating snows. Especially above about 5,000'. In fact the highest peaks of the Sacramento and Capitan Mtn's could very well end up with close to two feet of snow out of this storm by Sunday.
Our best chance for any accumulating snow here in the Pecos Valley will occur tonight into tomorrow morning as surface temperatures cool. This still remains a very tough call as far as to gets any snow on the ground and how much below 5,000'. I don't have a whole lot of confidence in the model forecasts concerning our local snowfall forecasts so take them with a grain of salt and be prepared for surprises snowfall wise. Some locations may get snow that aren't currently forecast to get any...some locations may get more, and some may get less than is forecast.
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT... * SNOW ACCUMULATION: 10 TO 16 INCHES OR MORE OVER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET AND ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER LOWER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND END AS LATE AS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. * IMPACT: HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES. HEAVY SNOWS COULD COMPROMISE THE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF SOME ROOFTOPS. DANGEROUSLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SNOW. AS SNOW LEVELS FALL...ROADS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BECOME ICY AND SNOW PACKED. * WINDS: EAST 10 TO 20 MPH. * SNOW LEVELS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BEGIN ABOVE 7000 FEET...FALLING AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOWER OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES THAN WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 7500 FEET AND 8 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FEET. LOCALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FEW BREAKS BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. * SNOW LEVELS...SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY VARY BETWEEN 6000 AND 7500 FEET. * LOCAL IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH. WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW MAY COMPROMISE THE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF SOME ROOF TOPS WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHEST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!