So You Think Winter Is Over In NM Huh?

(As Of 7 AM MST).




Valid @ 5 AM MST  Next Tuesday.

GFS (T1534).

Canadian (GEM).

European (ECMWF).

New Mexico's next bout with winter appears to be coming Sunday into the middle of next week. A deep trough of low pressure (at the 500 millibar level or roughly the 18,000' level as depicted by the forecast maps above) will dive southward into the state by Tuesday morning. Whether or not this trough tries to close off and form a closed or cut off low over the area remains to be seen. Should this happen then a prolonged period of colder and snowier weather would occur over the Land of Enchantment and nearby areas.  

(GFS (T1534).

Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

Valid @ 11 PM MST Monday Night.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Next Tuesday.

GFS (1534).

Canadian (GEM).

Total Snowfall Forecasts.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Next Tuesday.

GFS (1534).

Canadian (GEM).

Remember that the models are only a guide, an outline of what will happen with our next storm. Sometimes they are wrong, really wrong, and we've seen that a couple of times this winter. Too be fair sometimes they are dead on and we've also seen this occur this winter.

Mother nature will remind New Mexican's that she is not done hurling chunks of cold air and snow at us beginning Sunday night. I strongly suspect given the upper level pattern this winter that this next storm will have some surprises for us. Forecast high temperatures in southeastern New Mexico for Monday indicate the low-mid 70's. Tuesday's highs the upper 30's to the mid 40's. As I've mentioned before Mother Nature seems to be suffering from bi-polar fits this winter. More later.

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