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Showing posts from September, 2015

Deep Trough Out West - Hurricane Joaquin Threatens East Coast. How Will NM Be Impacted This Weekend?

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IR Satellite Image Of Hurricane Joaquin. Valid @ 3:45 PM MDT Wednesday, Sept 30, 2015.
Lots to talk about in the wild world of weather this weekend. Hurricane Joaquin continues to be a threat to the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile a deep mid-upper level storm dives southward into California and will be a player in New Mexico's weather this weekend into the first of next week.

Uneventful Week Weather-wise - Changes Late In The Weekend?

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Last Nights Super Blood Moon In SW Chaves Co NM.  To View More Photos Click On This Link.
Our weather this week will be fairly quiet with temperatures running a little above normal. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 80's to close to 90 across the lower elevations. Highs in the Sacramento Mountains will be mostly in the 70's to near 80. Overnight lows in the lower elevations will be mostly in the mid 50's to near 60. Lows in the mountains will generally be in the 40's and 50's. 

Super Blood Moon As Seen From The High Desert Plains Of SE NM 9-27-2015.

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As tonight's Super Blood Moon was rising over southeastern New Mexico my wife and I were headed home after a day trip to the southern Sacramento Mountains in south Central New Mexico.
 We had just passed the Penasco Valley River Ranch located just northeast of the Penasco School on US Hwy 82 when we first encountered tonight's rising Super Blood Moon. As we headed east towards Artesia we pulled over and I was able to snap the following photos. 
Sadly me and my camera were not on the same operating page tonight and I blew some really good shots because I was either out of focus or had the flash turned on. The good side of this was that my wife was able to experience the full sequence of events since it wasn't occurring in the wee hours of the morning. She also marveled at how bright the Milky Way was to our west so all was not lost.




The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Wet Past 7 Days In SE NM.

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I Never Get Tired Of New Mexico's Sunsets.

More Rain & Seasonal Temperatures.

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Water Vapor Satellite Image @ 5:15 AM MDT This Morning.
Our next local weather maker is Tropical Depression 16-E  which is located over the central Baja Peninsula at 5 AM MDT this morning. Clouds streaming northeastward from this disturbance will increase over the area this afternoon into Tuesday.
An upper level low will form off of the California Coast and help to turn our flow aloft over the area to the southwest. This will draw the remnant moisture from TD 16-E northward and northeastward into New Mexico today into the middle of the week. The models continue to edge this moisture further to the east with each new run...therefore I won't be surprised if this has a bigger impact upon our local weather that current forecasts indicate. 
 Scattered thunderstorms and areas of rain will also return to southern and southeastern New Mexico this afternoon into Wednesday. Heavy rainfall will be a possibility into at least Wednesday. Storm total rainfall amounts could be in the 1" - 3…

Cool Rainy Day Saturday - More Of That Today.

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Water Vapor Image @ 5:15 AM MDT This Morning.
As was expected a strong cold front moved into southeastern New Mexico Friday night dropping our high temperatures on Saturday down into the 70's. With overcast and rainy skies for much of the local area yesterday certainly felt and looked more like a fall day.

Fall Like Temperatures Today.

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RTMA Temperatures @ 4 AM MDT This Morning.
Yesterday afternoon a Severe Thunderstorm rolled across the southern end of Carlsbad. At 5:52 PM MDT a thunderstorm wind gust of 58 knots or 67 mph was observed at the Carlsbad Airport ASOS. This storm also produced 1.08" of rainfall at the airport. Meanwhile here at our home on the northwest side of town I only measured .05". 
A strong cold front moved south through the area overnight. Today will be much cooler, in fact our daytime high temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Friday's highs with readings in the mostly in the 70's.

More T-Storms Today & Significant Cooling On Saturday.

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NWS MesoWest Repotted 24-Hour Rainfall Totals. And Radar Estimated 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.
24-Hour Lightning Strike Density.  As Of 5:30 AM MDT This Morning.
Another scroching day was noted yesterday. My high temp here at our home in Carlsbad was 101°F. Long term average high temps for the date locally are in the mid to upper 80's. Thunderstorms broke out over the southeastern plains yesterday afternoon and dissiapted later in the evening. Rainfall was fairly widespread but as the graphic above indicates the heaviest rains missed the populated areas once again for the most part. I measured .41" here at our home and I had a report on FaceBook of .90" in Carlsbad.The Bowl Raws located just north of Guadalupe Peak picked up 1.04".

Another Blistering Day On Tap. Relief Saturday.

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Hot Mid September Afternoon Along The East Slopes Of The Rockies.

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RAP 2 PM MDT Temps Today.
Mid to upper 90's from southeastern New Mexico and West Texas northward along the eastern slopes of the Rockies into southern Nebraska. 103°F in northwestern Kansas. Rather warm for mid September.

Summer Refuses To Give Up.

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Monday's Sunset Near Lovington, New Mexico. 
Unusually hot weather for mid September continues but a cool down is coming by the weekend with another cold front. Thunderstorms return starting Thursday.  

New Mexico YTD & Local September Rainfall Totals.

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Regional Rainfall Totals. As Of September 12, 2015. 
Rainfall totals across southeastern New Mexico have been extremely variable so far this month. Parts of Chaves County have had 1"-3" of rain as have the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Sacramento mountains. While many of the valley locations have had a half of an inch or less so far. 
Some of the heavier recorded totals include:
Mayhill CoCoRaHS 2.8 WNW 2.75" Alto 2.7 E CoCoRaHS 1.93" Dog Canyon Raws 1.51" Queen Raws 1.44" Bowl Raws 1.43" Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 4 E 1.36" Queen CoCoRaHS 1.35" Sierra Blanca Snotel 1.10" Mayhill Raws 1.09"  Nogal CoCoRaHS 4.6 SSE 1.08"

Pea Size Hail & Half An Inch Of Rain With Yesterday's Downpour.

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A thunderstorm opened up on our neighborhood in Carlsbad yesterday afternoon dumping .46" of rainfall in 20 minutes. Storm total ended up being .48". Pea to dime size hail fell between 3:48 and 3:52 PM MDT. Pea size hail fell again for a few minutes and ended at 4:04 PM. MDT. This brings my September total to .50" and my YTD to 12.18".
A CoCoRaHS observer in Queen reported .50" and a FaceBook friend reported .90". A public report of .50" was noted in Cottonwood north of Artesia.

T-Storms Firing Up As Cold Front Approaches.

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Regional Temps @ 1 PM MDT.
A southward moving cold front was located near a Clovis to Lubbock line at 1 PM this afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front in southeastern New Mexico are in the mid 80's to the low 90's. Temperatures in northeastern New Mexico in the cooler air behind the front are in the low 60's to the low 70's.

Strong Fast Moving Cold Front Headed Our Way.

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Temperatures @ 6 AM MDT 9-11-2015.

Stronger Cold Front - Better Chances For T-Storms Friday.

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Looking SE On Refinery Rd - SE Of Carlsbad, NM Yesterday.

Cold Front Wednesday - Remnant Moisture From Linda?

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IR Satellite Image Of Hurricane Linda @ 1:45 PM MDT Today.
Hurricane Lindawas located 365 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California at 3 PM MDT today. Linda has sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts near 125 mph. Her central pressure was down to 969 MB or 28.62". She is moving off to the northwest at around 12 mph.

WeatherBELL'S PUBLIC WINTER 15-16 FORECAST.

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WeatherBELL Analytics LLC has just issued their 2015-2016 Winter forecast and its a dozy for New Mexico. They are calling for a "Bad Winter" over all of the state with "Severe" conditions over roughly the eastern on half of the state. Click on the link to read more about their winter forecast for the nation. 
August 2015 Overall, a snowy, colder than normal winter is expected in the South and EastCore of winter will be later rather then earlierDecember could be very warm with February very coldEl NiƱo is a big influence but not the only factor
Analogs & Models Our method of an independent consensus ranked 1957-58 first, 2014-15 second, 1997-98 third, 2002-03 fourth and 1972-73 fifth. Also factored in were 1919-20, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1994-95 and 2009-10.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

August 2015 Temp & Rainfall Data.

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My beautiful wife Diane took this photo during one of our
mountain trips recently.

Blog Updated 7:30 AM MDT (-2-2015.

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