Monsoon Flow Has NM In Its Gunsights - Invest 97L To Continue West.


(As Of 6 AM MDT July 31, 2016).

July was not a wet month for most of southeastern New Mexico. In fact here at our home in Carlsbad I've only managed to pick up .27" for the month and 2.82" for the year so far.



The Clines Corners ASOS measured 1.97" of rain over the past 24 hours.


Past 24 Hours.
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).



Past 48 Hours.
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).


Past 72 Hours.
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).



NDFD (NWS) Total Rainfall Forecasts.
(Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016).



(Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday, August 7, 2016).



(Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016).



Roswell.


Carlsbad.


Ruidoso.


Cloudcroft.


An interesting trend in some of the forecast models this morning in that a few of them are trying to shift the Monsoonal moisture currently streaming into Arizona and much of New Mexico slightly eastward. Just enough to give us a chance this upcoming week for a few scattered thunderstorms...some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Will be fun to see if this pans out. Meanwhile our temperatures will remain close to, or slightly above seasonal normals.

Invest 97L.

Not a lot of change in the overall thinking and model forecasts concerning the track and strength of Invest 97L this morning. As far as its track goes a jog generally to the west is anticipated. Some of the models have it reaching tropical storm strength just east of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday morning. Some of them curve it northward and into the Gulf by the end of the week. Some of them keep it heading westward into the Yucatan Peninsula, and out into the Bay of Campeche and into Eastern Mexico by the end of the week or next weekend. Nothing is set in stone at this point so keep an eye on it.



Valid At 6:45 AM MDT This Morning.





ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are
disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate
no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase
after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of
days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach
Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should
continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Kimberlain

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