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Showing posts from September, 2016

Year-To-Date Average Temperatures & Rainfall.

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New Mexico Rainfall - Sept 2016. (As Of Sept 29th, 2016).

New Mexico Rainfall Departure From Normal - Sept 2016. (As Of Sept 29th, 2016).

Regional Rainfall Totals. (As Of Sept 29, 2016).

Most of the southern one half of New Mexico has averaged above normal this September as far as rainfall is concerned. Across the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains eastward out onto the southeastern plains most of us are averaging 1" to 5" above normal for the month. Except for our home in Carlsbad where I've recorded an even 2.00" for the month...which is not far below normal which is 2.11".  
Average Temperatures For September 2016. (As Of Sept 29th, 2016).


Overall temperatures across New Mexico have been running close to normal or slightly below normal for this month. This is also true for much of the Western and Southwestern U.S. 
2016 Year-To-Date Average Temperatures.

Temperatures so far for the year are close to normal in New Mexico and parts of Texas.
The Truth Is Stranger Than …

Cold Front Has Arrived - Monday Continues To Look Much Colder/Wet.

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Strong Cold Front Has Pushed Into West Texas.
Surface Map @ Noon MDT Today.
Finally our anticipated cold front has arrived...although somewhat slower than what the models had originally forecast. So this means that our high temperatures today in southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas will be a little warmer than originally forecast as well. 
Temperatures @ 11 AM MDT This Morning.



Local Temperatures @ Noon MDT Today.

As of noon today the coolest reading I can find was 48ºF at the Buck Mountain Automated Weather Station (10,720') located near Sierra Blanca Peak, west of Ruidoso. A close second was the Sunspot Solar Observatory (9,255') with 49ºF. The Smokey Bear Raws in Ruidoso (7,090') was reporting a temp of 59ºF while a Personal Weather Station in Cloudcroft (8,698') was reporting 51ºF. Here at our home in Carlsbad my Davis Vantage Pro2 Home Weather Station was reporting 73ºF. 
With the cold front now in West Texas and continuing to push to the south and east, and the…

Raw-Wet-Blustery Weather On Tap Sunday Into Monday.

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9-15-2016 Hidalgo Gas Plant - West Of Orla, TX.
Strong Western Storm Digs South Today.
500 MB Analysis @ 6 AM MDT This Morning.
A strong storm centered over southern Wyoming at sunrise this morning will continue to lift off to the northeast today. 
06Z/Midnight Last Night GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.
Meanwhile at the base of this storm a piece of its energy will drop southward into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico sunset tonight. A cutoff upper level low will develop just south of Arizona on Sunday and will still be parked there by sunrise Monday. This cutoff low depicted here at the 500 millibar level or roughly at 18,000' above sea level will have been "cutoff" or separated from the jet stream to its north over the northern plains. Therefore it will just sit down there for a couple of days and spin away trapped by the upper level ridge by its west and north.
Cold This Morning Across The Western U.S.



Without a doubt it feels very …

NAM Model Forecasts Heavy Rainfall For SE NM Sunday.

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Today's 18Z/Noon MDT NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast. Valid @ Midnight Monday Night.
Today's 18Z/Noon MDT NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast. Valid @ Midnight Monday Night.
Roswell's Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.


Carlsbad's Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Hobb's Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Interestingly enough the 18Z run of the NAM computer forecast model continues its trend from this mornings 12Z run of dumping widespread rainfall totals of 2.50" to 3.50" across southeastern New Mexico on Sunday starting around sunrise. 
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Fall-Like Weather & Much Colder This Weekend Into The First Of Next Week.

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Thursday, September 15, 2016. Cumulonimbus Mammatus (CBMAM) Clouds Streaming Eastward From A Severe Thunderstorm Located Near Dell City, Texas, Or Just South Of Guadalupe Peak.
Much Cooler Out West This Morning.


Temperatures & 24-Hour Differences At 6 AM MDT This Morning. Notice The Widespread 30's.
Major Changes Coming In With Our Weather This Weekend.
Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS 500 MB Analysis.
Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.
Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS High Temperature Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.
Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.
Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.
NWS NDFD Snowfall Accumulation Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, September 25, 2016.
Take a look at the temperature maps above. Notice the widespread 30's across th…

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