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Showing posts from October, 2016

Roswell Reached 91F Saturday - Rain Still Possible Next Week.

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New Daily Record High Temps Saturday.

Reported High Temps Saturday.


Models Still Forecasting Rain Next Week.
GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast. Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.
Last nights 00Z/6 PM MDT run of the GFS model drops out cutoff low into northern Baja, California by sunrise next Thursday morning. The computer forecast models are showing signs of disagreeing on exactly where this storm will end up and for how long. Which is fairly typical for this type of storm. It may end up wobbling around northern Mexico into next weekend.
Rain Upon The Plain & Mountain?
GFS Surface Map Forecast. Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.
Last nights GFS surface map forecast shows that a backdoor cold front will be moving southward and westward down the eastern plains of New Mexico Wednesday into Thursday morning. Low level upslope from from the southeast is forecast to combine with the lift and instability of the cutoff low to our west to help moisten up and destabilize the atmo…

Continued Very Warm Through Wednesday - Rain Later Next Week?

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Cannon Ski Resort - Franconia, New Hampshire Oct 5, 2016.
Cutoff Low Stalls Near NM Next Week?
GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast. Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.

European (ECMWF) 500 MB (18,000' MSL Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016.
Canadian (GEM) 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast. Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.
Our warm and dry October weather is forecast to continue into next Wednesday dominated by a stout ridge of high pressure aloft. By Thursday the GFS, ECMWF, and the GEM models agree that a cutoff upper level low (depicted by each model above at the 500 millibar level, or at 18,000' above seal level) will park itself just south of Arizona or southwest of New Mexico. Nothing unusual about this since these types of storms happen fairly frequently in the fall. By saying it is a cutoff storm this means that the storm itself is cut off from the jet stream flow which will remain well north of the state in Canada. When this happens these sto…

What Goes Up - Comes Down - Eventually.

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Franconia Notch State Park - Lincoln, NH.
Warm & Dry For October 2016.

So far this October has been rather warm and dry for New Mexico. And warm (above normal temps) for much of the nation. Normally we would be getting very close to experiencing our first freeze of the season but this is not to be for awhile. Perhaps not for another 10 days to two weeks here in SE NM if not longer. 
Roswell, New Mexico- (Oct 1st - 27th, 2016).

Average high temp so far this month= 83.6 Normal high temp so far this month= 76.4
Average low temp so far this month= 48.2 Normal high temp so far this month= 47.3
Average temp so far this month= +4.1 above normal.
Carlsbad, New Mexico- (Oct 1st - 27th, 2016).

Average high temp so far this month= 84.0 Normal high temp so far this month= 78.7
Average low temp so far this month= 51.7 Normal high temp so far this month= 48.5
Average temp so far this month= +4.3 above normal.
Cloudcroft, New Mexico- (Oct 1st - 27th, 2016).

Average high temp so far this month= 65.6 Nor…

Is This October Or May?

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Temperatures @ 6 PM Saturday.

Reported High Temperatures Saturday.

Death Ridge Refuses To Give Up.
This Mornings GFS 500 MB Analysis.
GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, Oct 30, 2016.
For all you snow lovers unfortunately the 500 millibar death ridge has shut down any hope of colder temperatures and snow for New Mexico at least for the upcoming week. None of the computer models break this ridge of high pressure down over the next seven days. 
A few rain showers will be possible over parts of western and northern New Mexico early next week but overall most of the state will miss out. Our daily high temperatures across New Mexico will generally run some 5 to 15 degrees above normal this upcoming week into next weekend.
Bummer...I like many of you are ready for some colder and more typical late October weather. So tired of summer trying to hang on. Oh well November isn't that far away.
Next 7-Days Temperature Anomaly Forecasts.
Today - Sunday, Oct 23, 2016.
Monday.
Tuesday.
Wednesday…

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