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Showing posts from November, 2016

A Wintry MIx This Weekend?

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Canadian (GEM) 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday, Dec 3, 2016.
Canadian (GEM) Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

There is a little better agreement among the computer forecast models concerning the track and speed of the next winter-like storm to impact the region this weekend. Although the details concerning how much snow falls, where, and when is still questionable. Last nights Canadian model drops this next storm into northwestern Mexico by Friday night into Saturday morning and forecasts a cutoff low to develop.
A mix of rain and snow and perhaps some sleet in some locals this weekend appears in the making. A cold front will drop southward into the area on Friday thus enhancing the low level upslope flow from the east...which will aide in the development of precipitation.
Again the exact track and location of this storm will determine how much snow falls and where. For now the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains appear to be in the running for some decent totals. A c…

Coldest Night Of The Season On Tap.

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Guadalupe Mountains Sunset - Nov 28, 2016.

More Wind & Needle Grass!

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Windy Sunday - Mountain Snows Tonight Into Monday.

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Jet Stream Forecast. 300 MB (30,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.
Winds aloft will be howling over New Mexico on Sunday thanks in part to the jet stream bisecting the state. The GFS forecast model is calling for the winds at the 30,000' level to be around 156 knots or 179 mph by sunset Sunday right over the top of southeastern and eastern New Mexico.

Latest Regional (NM/AZ) Forecast Snowfall Updates.

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More Snow For New Mexico Ski Resorts Coming Up!

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My Favorite Time Of The Year! 🎄

Winter Returns To Desert Southwest.

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Carlsbad, New Mexico - November 24, 2013.
I recorded 3.3" of snowfall on the 23rd and 24th and a total of .91" of precipitation from that storm here at our home in Carlsbad. On the morning of the 24th snow had accumulated to a depth of 3". My high temp that day way 33ºF after a low of 27ºF. Artesia had 2" of snow out of the storm and Roswell recorded .3" with 3" on the ground on the morning of the 24th.

Monday's Storm To Bring Lowland Rain & Mountain Snows.

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First Freeze Overnight.

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GFS Temperature Anomalies. @ 6 AM MST This Morning.

Coming Cold & Snow In The US.

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Foothills Shrouded In The Fog At Runyan Ranches 11-5-2016.

One Windy Day In The Land Of Enchantment.

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Blog Updated @ 6:15 AM MST Friday, Nov 18, 2016.

Mayhill, New Mexico Baptist Church 11-5-2016.
Potent Storm Slides North Of New Mexico.

High Winds Thursday - First Freeze Friday & Saturday.

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Very Dense Fog With Areas Of Light Rain And Drizzle From Artesia To Cloudcroft (Along US Hwy 82) On Nov 5th. Visibility Down To Less Than 100 Yards At Times.
Like October - November Warmer Than Normal.
Temperature Anomalies From Nov 1st - Nov 15th, 2016.
So far the first half of November like October has been warmer than normal for New Mexico. Here in Southeastern New Mexico our temperatures are averaging some 5 to 10 degrees above the 30 year climatic normals. And we have yet to experience our first freeze of the season. This all will change by Friday and Saturday. 
Not Everyone Is Warmer Than Normal.
Global Temperature Anomalies For Nov 1st - 15th, 2016.
Don't Be Fooled By The Above Normal Temps.
Temperatures @ 3 AM MST This Morning.
Notice how cold it has been (below normal to much below normal) across the Northern Asian Continent. Some 20 to 50 degrees below normal in parts of Siberia. This slug of cold air will in time begin to spread eastward out of Siberia and eventually southw…

Super Moon Setting Over The Guadalupe Mtn's 11-14-2016.

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The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Season's First High Wind Event Thursday.

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GFS Surface Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Nov 17, 2016.
GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Nov 17, 2016.
GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Nov 17, 2016. 
GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday, Nov 19, 2016.
NWS 5-Day Forecast For Roswell, NM.

A potent upper level storm depicted above at the 500 millibar or 18,000' Mean Sea Level (MSL) is still forecast by the models to dig southeastward into southern Colorado and northern New Mexico by Thursday afternoon, The latest run of the GFS model is dropping the storm a little further to the south so a little more snowfall is forecast for the northern New Mexico mountains...although at this time widespread heavy snowfall is not anticipated. 
Our first fall wind storm is still on track for Thursday as the surface pressure gradient tightens up as the stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface during peak afternoon heating. A High Wind Event looks…

Finally A Storm To Watch - First Freeze Late Next Week?

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Regional Temperatures @ 6 AM MST This Morning.



Reported Low Temperatures This Morning.



Cottonwood dipped down to 34ºF this morning for their coldest low of the season so far. My low temp here at our home in Carlsbad was 38ºF, also the coldest reading of the season.
Our First Fall Howler Late Next Week.

GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Nov 17, 2016.
A strong upper level storm is forecast to dive southeastward and into northern Colorado and southern Wyoming by sunset next Thursday. This storm will be a little too far north to bring any meaningful snowfall to New Mexico mountains. Unless of course it dips a little further to the south than is currently forecast. Some of our northernmost ski resorts may see some accumulations. Finally the death ridge of high pressure that has had us locked up and preventing the storm track from getting this far south has been broken...for now anyway.
Windy Thursday.
Pivotal Weather 700 MB (10,000') MSL Wind Forecast. Valid…

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