Valid At 3:30 PM MST This Afternoon.
A very complicated winter weather event will unfold across New Mexico tonight into Thursday. Pockets of light rain are already developing over the southern one half of the state and this will increase and expand north and east into the night. A mixed bag of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow is forecast to break out over the Sacramento Mountains around midnight and spread north and northeast across the state into Thursday noontime.
Valid At 3 PM This Afternoon.
Deep subtropical moisture is streaming northward ahead of the cutoff upper level low currently located west of Baja, California late this afternoon. This mid and high level moisture will continue to work its way into the state and nearby areas tonight into Thursday. Meanwhile a southward moving cold front was draped across Northeastern and Eastern New Mexico and is forecast to continue pushing south into the Southeastern Plains and West Texas tonight.
Who Gets What?
(Precipitation Type Forecast).
Valid At 8 AM MST Thursday Morning.
Valid At 8 AM MST Thursday Morning.
Valid At 11 AM MST Thursday.
Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.
Valid At 5 PM MST Friday.
Tough tough call on who gets the freezing rain, sleet, and snow tonight into tomorrow around noontime. You can see this by the difference in the three forecast models I've posted above. The problem centers around a very moist and relatively warm layer above the surface at the mid levels of the atmosphere that will be streaming overhead a colder and relatively drier airmass at the surface. So how cold tonight and how far south does the freezing line go south of the cold front? The further south and west it ends up the better the chances for seeing freezing rain and sleet.
The Santa Teresa (El Paso), Albuquerque , and Lubbock National Weather Service Offices allude to this in the their afternoon "Area Forecast Discussions" (AFD's). Click on the links to read what they have to say concerning this unfolding winter event. What a mess!!!!
Local NWS Forecasts.
As far as Southeastern New Mexico is concerned we will be on the southern fringe of the freezing rain and sleet unless the colder air works its way further south than what is currently forecast.
Note the variability in some of our local forecasts below. For a more complete listing of local NWS forecasts please visit the NWS Forecast Page On My Web Page via this link. Or via this link courtesy of the National Weather Service.
Conditions may change in some areas tonight into Friday so please stay abreast of all of your local NWS forecast in your area of concern s via the links above.
Albuquerque's forecast calls for snow and sleet likely after 11 PM with a low of 30ºF. Little to no accumulations expected. Rain, snow, and sleet changing over to all rain after 11 AM. Steady temps around 34ºF. Little snow or sleet accumulations expected. Thursday night rain before 11 PM then a chance for snow showers. Steady temps around 39ºF with little to no accumulations of snow or sleet expected.
Clovis & Portales forecast calls for a slight chance for snow and sleet after 11 PM with a low tonight of 28ºF. Snow and sleet until around noontime on Thursday then rain in the afternoon with a high of 37ºF.
Roswell's forecast calls for rain after 11 PM tonight then a chance for a mix of rain, snow, and sleet until around noontime on Thursday. Low tonight 33ºF with a high on Thursday of 41ºF.
Artesia's forecast calls for rain tonight into Thursday. Low tonight 35ºF with a high on Thursday of 43ºF.
Carlsbad's forecast calls for rain tonight into Thursday with a low of 37ºF tonight and a high of 45ºF on Thursday.
Hobbs forecast calls for cloudy tonight with a low of 34ºF and a slight chance for rain on Thursday with a high of 43ºF.
Tatum's forecast calls for a slight chance of rain before 11 PM tonight with a low of 30ºF. Then a chance for rain and freezing rain later tonight until around noontime on Thursday then a chance for rain and high of 41ºF.
Ruidoso's forecast calls for rain before 11 PM then snow and sleet. New accumulations of less than an inch. Low tonight of 30ºF. Snow and sleet before 11 AM on Thursday then rain. High on Thursday of 43ºF. Then rain before 11 PM Thursday night then changing back over to a mix of rain and snow into Friday morning. Total accumulations of snow and sleet less than an inch.
Mahill's forecast calls for rain before 8 PM then a mix of rain and snow through tonight with snow accumulations of 1" to 3" possible. Low tonight 30ºF. Rain and snow before 9 AM on Thursday then changing back over to rain. Afternoon high of 43ºF. A rain and snow mix Thursday night with a low of 31ºF. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
Cloudcroft's forecast calls for a mix of rain and snow tonight until around 4 AM Thursday. New snow accumulations of 3" to 5" possible. Low tonight 29ºF. Snow before 9 AM Thursday then ending with a high of 39ºF. 1" to 3" of new snow possible. A rain and snow mix early Thursday night then snow through Friday morning. Total snowfall possible of 4" to 8".
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!