90-Degrees Today - Wild Winter Weather Sunday Night Into Tuesday!
High temperatures today will be some 20 to 40 degrees above normal from SE New Mexico northeastward across West Texas into SW Oklahoma. Many locals will reach 90ºF.
This Is Only A Partial Listing Of The New Daily Record High Temps Shattered Yesterday.
Daily Record High Temperatures For Yesterday & Today.
Portales: Friday 84ºF in 1962, Saturday 80ºF in 1962
Roswell: Friday 82ºF in 1962, Saturday 84ºF in 1962
Artesia: Friday 85ºF in 1957, Saturday 89ºF in 1916
Carlsbad: Friday 86ºF in 1916, Saturday 89ºF in 1916
Hobbs: Friday 85ºF in 1957, Saturday 85ºF in 1962
Tatum: Friday 80ºF in 1962, Saturday 83ºF in 1962
Ruidoso: Friday 72ºF in 1951, Saturday 70ºF in 1962
Cloudcroft: Friday 57ºF in 2015, Saturday 56ºF in 2016
Las Cruces: Friday 78ºF in 1951, Saturday 77ºF in 1951
El Paso: Friday 81ºF in 1957, Saturday 80ºF in 1957
Lubbock: Friday 84ºF in 1962, Saturday 85ºF in 1962
Midland/Odessa: Friday 84ºF in 1976, Saturday 85ºF in 1962ºF
Roswell surpassed their daily record high temperature of 82ºF set in 1962 on Friday with a new reading of 87ºF.
The Artesia Climate Co-Op Station data is not yet available for Friday but the Artesia Airport reached 88ºF yesterday. The record high for Artesia for yesterday was 85ºF set in 1957 so it appears likely they broke their record for the date also.
The Carlsbad Climate Co-Op Station reported a high yesterday of 86ºF which would tie their record of 86ºF set in 1916. The Carlsbad Airport ASOS reported 88ºF which smashes the previous record of 83ºF set in 1999. The all time record high temperature for February in Carlsbad believe it or not is 100ºF set on February 24th, 1904.
Winter Returns With A Vengeance Sunday Into Tuesday.
GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday Evening.
You would not know it by looking outside at our weather this morning but winter is fixing to make a roaring comeback. As of 10:30 AM MST this morning my thermometer has already climbed up to 86ºF after a morning low of 46ºF. Contrast this with yesterday's high of 89ºF after a low of 38ºF. That's a 51-degree spread in temps...more like something we might see in late April or the early part of May. Carlsbad's normal high/low temp for February 11th is 62ºF/31ºF. Roswell is 60ºF/30ºF. Cloudcroft is 44ºF/20ºF.
Our next developing winter storm is centered near San Francisco, California this morning. It has already developed into a closed low (at the 500 millibar level) as it continues to dig southward while strengthening. At the surface a Pacific Cold Front was draped across the California/Arizona border and will march steadily eastward today into Sunday. This front is forecast to arrive in Southeastern New Mexico during the day on Sunday. As this cold front sweeps eastward across the state tomorrow a much colder airmass will settle in over the region. Our high temperatures will be some 30 to 35 degrees colder on Sunday versus today's readings near 90ºF. By Monday most of the local area will only be in the 30's. That will be a drop in temperature compared with today of some 50-degrees.
Sunday.
Monday.
What a mess this storm is going to be. To say that the setup is complicated is a huge understatement. Just a deviation of as little as 50 to 100 miles in the track of the upper level cutoff low will make all the difference in the world concerning snowfall totals and precipitation types across the area. This storm is going to be dynamic to say the least with widespread winter impacts over New Mexico and West Texas. Unfortunately the models are still at odds concerning the details so its difficult to say how much snow locally we will see.
Courtesy Of NWS Albuquerque.
(Click On This Link For The Latest Updates).
(Click On This Link For The Latest Updates).
Courtesy Of NWS El Paso.
Courtesy Of NWS Midland.
(Click On This Link For The Latest Updates).
(Click On This Link For The Latest Updates).
Please check the links above often as I expect that there will be additional Special Weather Statements, Watches, and Warnings issued by our local National Weather Service Offices concerning this impending Major Winter Storm.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Sunday.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday Morning.
Use caution when looking at the precipitation type forecast maps above. This should be considered only as a general reference. The main idea to take away from these maps is that widespread wintry precipitation will overspread most of the state Sunday night into Tuesday. This will include a mix of rain..some of which may be moderate to heavy in some valley locations, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Difficult driving conditions may develop over a large portion of the state Sunday night into Tuesday...especially in the mountains and across the northeastern, eastern and southeastern plains.
As the upper level storm digs southward into the Baja Region Sunday into Sunday night and cutoffs from the jet stream flow to the north, a colder and moist atmosphere will overspread the state behind the cold front. Rain should develop over Northwestern New Mexico today with snow over the Northern Mountains...changing over to all snow tomorrow night.
See the Special Weather Statement courtesy of NWS Albuquerque for more details on this. And the Special Weather Statement from NWS Midland.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the El Paso NWS Office for the Southern Sacramento Mountains effective from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Elevations below 7,500' are forecast to get 4" to 9" of new snowfall from this storm while elevations above 7,500' are forecast to get 10" to 15". This includes the Cloudcroft, Mountain Park, High Rolls, Mescalero, Mayhill, Dunken, Elk, Weed, Sacramento, Pinon, Timberon, and Sunspots areas.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque area from late tonight into Sunday evening. Easterly gap winds (through the mountain passes) will become sustained at around 35 to 45 mph with gusts near 60 mph.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by the El Paso NWS Office for the Southern Sacramento Mountains effective from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Elevations below 7,500' are forecast to get 4" to 9" of new snowfall from this storm while elevations above 7,500' are forecast to get 10" to 15". This includes the Cloudcroft, Mountain Park, High Rolls, Mescalero, Mayhill, Dunken, Elk, Weed, Sacramento, Pinon, Timberon, and Sunspots areas.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque area from late tonight into Sunday evening. Easterly gap winds (through the mountain passes) will become sustained at around 35 to 45 mph with gusts near 60 mph.
A High Wind Watch has also been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains of West Texas in particular the Guadalupe Pass area. Northeast winds will become sustained at 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph from Sunday morning through Monday.
How Much Snow & Where?
NWS Albuquerque Snowfall Forecasts.
(Monday & Tuesday).
(Monday & Tuesday).
WPC Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
(Worst Case Scenario).
(Worst Case Scenario).
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday Morning.
Canadian (GEM) Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday Evening.
GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday Evening.
NAM Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday Evening.
NAM-WRF Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday Evening.
Roswell, NM.
Hobbs, NM.
Additional computer model forecasts will be coming in throughout the day and I expect that our local National Weather Service Offices may issue additional Watches and Warnings concerning this impending winter storm. So now is the time to go ahead and get prepared for a couple of days of winter weather with significant impacts upon many areas of the state. For latest area road conditions please visit this page on my web site: Winter Weather.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.