The Threat For Severe T-Storms Increasing Across SE NM & W TX.
(Issued At 10:30 AM MDT This Morning).
The threat for severe thunderstorms across Eastern and Southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas has increased this morning. Therefore the NWS SPC has upgraded the local area into a Slight Risk Category versus a Marginal Risk Category issued earlier this morning.
Large hail (Quarter size or larger), damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding will be possible with any severe thunderstorm that forms this afternoon and evening.
An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out late this afternoon especially with any discrete supercell thunderstorm that forms along and east of the dryline!
NWS SPC Outlook Update:
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...AND ALSO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO IA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large
hail and strong to damaging winds will be possible late this
afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains.
...Central/southern High Plains this afternoon/evening...
Modest southwesterly flow aloft will gradually overspread the High
Plains through the period on the southeast periphery of a
larger-scale trough moving eastward from the Great Basin/northern
Rockies toward the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture return
is underway in response to weak lee troughing, and regional 12z
soundings revealed an elevated mixed layer plume atop the returning
moisture (boundary layer dewpoints 56-60 F). Afternoon surface
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s will erode convective
inhibition and contribute to a corridor of moderate-strong buoyancy
(MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) east of the lee trough/dryline.
Forcing for ascent will be somewhat nebulous today along the
dryline, with perhaps a subtle embedded speed max ejecting
northeastward from AZ/NM. Convective initiation will largely rely
on mesoscale ascent along the dryline from the southwest NE triple
point southward into west TX. Widely-scattered storm development
expected after 21z, and a gradual increase in deep-layer and
low-level shear by this evening will support some supercell
structures. High-level flow is stronger farther south, and may
support more persistent/discrete cells in the vicinity of the Pecos
Valley, which has been added to the Slight Risk area. Otherwise,
convection is expected to be largely diurnal and should weaken by
late evening as convective inhibition increases. Some elevated
convection may form and persist in a strengthening warm-advection
regime across NE overnight.
..Thompson/Dial.. 04/14/2017
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (11:33AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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