Heavy To Very Heavy Rainfall Possible Monday Into Wednesday.




The Carlsbad Airport ASOS reported a high temperature yesterday of 101ºF. Thunderstorms quickly formed on radar early last evening stretching from south to north along the Pecos Valley from just south of Lakewood to south of Carlsbad near the NM/TX State line. At 9:18 PM MDT the Carlsbad Airport ASOS clocked a thunderstorm wind gust of 68 mph with .17" of rainfall from the storm. The public in Otis, southeast of Carlsbad reported just a little over an inch of rain, and .50" in Sunnyview in southeastern Carlsbad. We picked up .04" here on the northwest end of town. 



NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Today.


One more day of triple degree heat before we start a cool down Monday. A slow moving cold front is forecast to drop southward the eastern plains on Monday and into Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas by Monday night. This cooler air mass aided by rain cooled air along and behind the frontal boundary will drop our daytime high temps down into the 70's and 80's Tuesday and Wednesday. 

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Monday.


NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Monday.


NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Tuesday.


NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Tuesday.


NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Wednesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Wednesday.


Thunderstorms To Produce Heavy To Possibly Very Heavy Rainfall.

(Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday).


Heavy to very heavy rainfall some of which may possibly be torrential in nature is forecast to fall over the local area beginning Monday afternoon into Wednesday. Maybe even into the end of the week. This mornings run of the NAM-WRF computer forecast model depicts excessive rainfall along the front boundary from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Localized totals of  5" - 7" are forecast around the Halfway area northeast of Carlsbad, 5" - 6" around Hope and 5" around Dunken. It also forecasts 2.5" for the Carlsbad area. Widespread 2" - 4" totals look possible for many areas. 

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday).


This mornings run of the NAM model has a similar forecast for the local area.

(Carlsbad, NM).


Bufkit Model Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Roswell, NM).


Bufkit Model Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Hobbs, NM).


Iowa State Bufkit Metogram forecasts depict some pretty impressive rainfall totals locally Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Last nights NAM forecast pinpointed a 7.00" rainfall bulls eye over Hobbs while this mornings NAM model forecast produces 3.90" in Carlsbad. 





A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Northeastern New Mexico today through late tonight. Additional flash watches may be issued further southward including parts of the local area today or on Monday. 

Slow moving sometimes training thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy to very heavy rainfall over the area Monday into Wednesday. The heaviest rains are currently forecast to fall Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Don't focus so much on the exact rainfall totals depicted above nor their exact forecast locations by the models. These forecasts will likely change between today and Wednesday. 

What is important to remember is that heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a threat over the area starting Monday. Some locations may very well experience excessive rainfall totals and some of these totals could exceed 4.00". Remember that Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas has a long history of flash flooding and sadly this includes flash flood deaths. Flash flooding is always a dangerous and life threatening event but this is even more true at night when it is harder to determine the depth of water flowing over roadways, city streets, ditches, and arroyos. Most flash flood deaths occur at night and many of them are in vehicles.

Remember:

TURN AROUND - DON'T DROWN!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Winter In New Mexico This Year?

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