Our Decent Weather Break Is Over - Winter To Return.
11-22-2018.
Thanksgiving Morning In Carlsbad, NM.
Winter Makes A Return To NM This Weekend.
Valid At 5 PM MST Friday.
Valid At 11 AM MST Sunday.
(New Mexico Impacts Friday - Sunday).
Two upper level storms are forecast to impact New Mexico and nearby areas beginning tomorrow night. Both of which are expected to dump varying amounts of snow to parts of the state. The first storm arrives in the form of a negatively tilted short wave trough of low pressure moving across New Mexico Thursday night into Friday night. The second short wave appears to be a little stronger and colder than Friday's storm and it will have the potential to dump larger snowfall totals over the mountains and parts of northern and central New Mexico on Sunday. A widespread significant winter storm is possible Saturday night into Sunday for northern and central New Mexico.
Valid At 5 PM MST Friday.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.
A mix of rain and snow will begin over western and northwestern New Mexico Thursday evening and spread eastward during the day on Friday. The heaviest snows are forecast to fall in the mountains. Heavier and more widespread snowfall will be possible on Sunday.
GFS Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Friday.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.
WPC Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday.
NWS NDFD Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday.
Locally the models hint that around and inch or two of new snow will fall in the Sacramento Mountains Friday into Friday night. With the stronger storm affecting the state on Sunday another 1" to 4" could fall over the Sac's. These forecast snowfall amounts more than likely will change especially on Sunday with the stronger storm approaching. If it digs further south into the state than is currently forecast then more widespread and heavier snowfall will occur.
Southeastern New Mexico basked in the low to mid 70's today while the mountains saw the 50's and 60's for afternoon highs. Another repeat of this is in store for Thursday. A couple of cold fronts will knock our temperatures back down below normal beginning Friday and continuing into mid next week. Should a further south storm track develop Sunday into Monday then our temperatures will be even colder than those indicated below.
High Winds Return - Tis The Season.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Southwesterly to westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 40 to 50 mph with gusts near 75 mph!
Strong southwesterly winds are forecast to develop across the southeastern plains Friday with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph Friday afternoon. Localized areas of blowing dust will also be possible.
This upcoming weekend promises to be stormy with colder temperatures and snowfall expected over many parts of the state. The storm track is not 100% certain at this time so be prepared for changes in not only our local weather forecast here in Southeastern New Mexico but elsewhere across the state.
Check out my Regional Forecast Page and my Winter Weather Page for the latest updates, watches, and warnings.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!
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