Potential For Heavy Rain & Flash Flooding Late This Weekend Into Early Next Week.








What a shock that was. As forecast a stout cold front slipped into the local area and knocked the bottom out of our thermometers last night into today. Many of our local high temperatures for the day we set at or around midnight. Unless something changes some of our local daily "coldest high" temperature records for May 10th will be broken. 

Compare These Readings With The Record "Lowest High" Temperatures For May 10th-

Roswell ThreadEx 59ºF In 1913
Artesia Climate 64ºF In 1947
Carlsbad Climate 66ºF In 2007
Carlsbad Airport 62º In 2012 
Hobbs Climate 61ºF In 1947
Tatum Climate 62ºF In 2007

Elk Climate 55ºF In 2012
Ruidoso Climate 57ºF In 1979
Cloudcroft Climate 44ºF In 1969


Analysis At Noon MDT Today.

Forecast At 6 AM MDT Sunday.

Forecast At 6 AM MDT Monday.

As of noontime today our closed mid/upper level low was located near San Diego. It is forecast to crawl eastward this weekend and by Sunday morning should be located somewhere near El Paso. Our first shortwave kicked out by our storm to our west dropped light rainfall totals over the local area today. A rain and snow mix was noted over the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains. The Ski Apache web cam showed the ground dusted with light snow this morning.


Valid Tonight Through 6 PM MDT Monday.

Concerns are high that as the storm to our west slowly crawls eastward this weekend into the first of next week heavy rains could lead to flash flooding across parts of the area. For now the main window of opportunity for this will be from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. The WPC model shows 1" to 3" over the Southeastern Plains.

SREF Mean Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Tonight Through Midnight Monday Night.

In close agreement but the overall totals but slightly different in the locations of the highest rainfall is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF).

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Tonight Through Midnight Sunday.





Then there is today's Noon MDT run of the NAM which paints excessive rainfall in the order of 6" to 8" over Lea County by midnight Sunday night. I hate it when a model does this. These totals seems ridiculous but then again it is May with a closed/cutoff mid/upper level low stalling to our west with a good southwesterly moisture fetch. So maybe these totals are not that far off.

Bottom line is this. Another shortwave is approaching the area now (5:30 PM MDT Friday) and will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning. Then we get somewhat of a break Saturday although there will be a few showers and storms around. 

Then things ramp up again Sunday into Tuesday morning. The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding should be closely monitored. 

By The Way It Snowed...A Lot In Some Parts Of New Mexico Last Night Into Today.

(As Of 12:36 PM MDT Friday, May 10th, 2019).

24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

 • 7 SE TIERRA AMARILLA - 1.82 in.
 • 19 N ALCALDE - 1.59 in.
 • 2 W VALDEZ - 1.37 in.
 • 1 WSW LOS ALAMOS - 1.18 in.
 • 4 WSW MILLS - 1.12 in.
 • 3 NE TUCUMCARI - 1.08 in.
 • 11 ENE BELL RANCH - 1.05 in.
 • 1 WSW MIAMI - 1.04 in.
 • 11 ENE BELL RANCH - 1.02 in.
 • 3 NW BANDELIER NATL MONUMENT - 1.01 in.

 • 9 WSW CUBA - 0.91 in.
 • 3 WNW GALLUP - 0.89 in.
 • 1 SSE GALLUP - 0.86 in.
 • 1 NW OCATE - 0.86 in.
 • 1 NW MEDANALES - 0.85 in.
 •  null MONTEZUMA - 0.83 in.
 •  null CONCHAS - 0.81 in.
 • 4 ESE CHACO CANYON - 0.78 in.
 • 3 NE TUCUMCARI - 0.76 in.
 • 30 S OJO ENCINO - 0.75 in.
 • 16 SSE NATL RADIO ASTRONOMY OBS - 0.74 in.
 • 1 E ARROYO SECO - 0.74 in.
 •  null CHAMA - 0.73 in.
 • 2 SSE PORTALES - 0.71 in.
 • 1 NE GALLUP - 0.70 in.
 • 4 SW PORTALES - 0.70 in.
 •  null RAMAH - 0.67 in.
 • 3 SW PORTALES - 0.65 in.
 • 1 NW VALDEZ - 0.64 in.
 •  null GHOST RANCH - 0.64 in.
 • 2 WNW MANUELITAS - 0.64 in.
 • 13 E GLADSTONE - 0.64 in.
 • 13 ENE BURNHAM - 0.63 in.
 • 1 WNW LAMY - 0.63 in.
 • 2 NNE ROWE - 0.63 in.
 • 1 ESE MEDANALES - 0.61 in.
 • 3 W LOGAN - 0.60 in.
 • 1 NE CLOVIS - 0.56 in.
 • 2 ENE TAOS - 0.56 in.
 • 1 N RATON - 0.55 in.
 • 2 S GRANTS - 0.55 in.
 • 2 SSW RATON - 0.54 in.
 •  null DULCE - 0.53 in.
 • 2 SSW PECOS - 0.53 in.
 • 1 S RATON - 0.53 in.
 • 4 NE ALCALDE - 0.53 in.
 • 3 ENE PONDEROSA - 0.51 in.
 • 14 NW MILAN - 0.51 in.
 • 1 SSW CHAMIZAL - 0.50 in.
 • 7 ESE DES MOINES - 0.50 in.

 • 2 NE CLOVIS - 0.49 in.
 • 15 SSW CLAYTON - 0.49 in.
 • 5 N PLEASANT HILL - 0.49 in.
 • 3 E CLOVIS - 0.49 in.
 • 22 WNW HAYDEN - 0.48 in.
 • 2 SSW ARABELA - 0.47 in.
 • 2 ENE GALLUP - 0.46 in.
 • 5 NNW LAMY - 0.43 in.
 • 1 SSE CLAYTON - 0.42 in.
 • 2 NNE CLOVIS - 0.42 in.
 • 1 N CANONES - 0.42 in.
 • 4 NNW LAMY - 0.42 in.
 • 4 NW LAMY - 0.42 in.
 • 1 W GRANTS - 0.41 in.
 •  null MESITA - 0.41 in.
 • 6 NNW LAMY - 0.40 in.
 • 8 S HAYDEN - 0.40 in.
 • 1 WNW NAVAJO DAM - 0.40 in.
 • 7 N PLEASANT HILL - 0.39 in.
 • 5 E AZTEC - 0.39 in.
 • 3 WNW SENECA - 0.38 in.
 • 6 NE CLAYTON - 0.38 in.
 • 5 NW LAMY - 0.36 in.
 • 2 WSW AZTEC - 0.36 in.
 • 11 NW MESA - 0.35 in.
 •  null PIETOWN - 0.35 in.
 • 1 ESE AZTEC - 0.35 in.
 • 1 NE BLOOMFIELD - 0.35 in.
 •  null RIO COMMUNITIES - 0.35 in.
 • 7 NW LAMY - 0.35 in.
 • 2 NW EDGEWOOD - 0.34 in.
 • 3 WSW FARMINGTON - 0.34 in.
 • 2 WSW EL MORRO - 0.34 in.
 • 2 WSW PONDEROSA - 0.33 in.
 • 2 SE MANZANO - 0.33 in.
 • 2 WSW EDGEWOOD - 0.33 in.
 • 1 ESE CEDAR HILL - 0.33 in.
 • 9 SE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.32 in.
 • 3 S FARMINGTON - 0.31 in.
 • 3 SSW FARMINGTON - 0.31 in.
 • 2 N MILAN - 0.31 in.
 • 6 NW ROSEBUD - 0.31 in.
 • 10 NW PLEASANT HILL - 0.31 in.
 • 4 SSE KIRTLAND - 0.31 in.
 • 9 NE AZTEC - 0.31 in.
 • 4 SSW FLORA VISTA - 0.30 in.
 • 2 NNW EDGEWOOD - 0.30 in.
 • 6 S TEXICO - 0.30 in.
 • 8 NNE OMEGA - 0.30 in.
 • 12 SSW VERMEJO PARK - 0.29 in.
 • 5 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.29 in.
 • 6 WSW ESTANCIA - 0.29 in.
 • 6 SE RIO COMMUNITIES - 0.29 in.
 • 2 ENE CLAYTON - 0.29 in.
 • 2 W DATIL - 0.29 in.
 • 6 SSW SAN MATEO - 0.28 in.
 • 3 NE FARMINGTON - 0.28 in.
 • 1 WNW WHITE ROCK - 0.27 in.
 • 3 NW MILAN - 0.27 in.
 • 2 NNE RUIDOSO - 0.27 in.
 • 4 W RIO RANCHO - 0.27 in.
 • 1 E WHITE ROCK - 0.27 in.
 • 2 S VALENCIA - 0.26 in.
 • 2 N EDGEWOOD - 0.26 in.
 • 1 N RUIDOSO - 0.26 in.

 • 7 ESE KENNA - 0.25 in.
 • 5 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.25 in.
 • 3 NNE LOS CERRILLOS - 0.25 in.
 • 3 ENE TRUCHAS - 0.25 in.
 • 7 WSW ESTANCIA - 0.25 in.
 • 5 N LAMY - 0.24 in.
 • 6 WNW ESPANOLA - 0.24 in.
 • 6 NE PONDEROSA - 0.23 in.
 • 2 NW EL RITO - 0.23 in.
 • 1 SW NARA VISA - 0.23 in.
 • 7 SSW MAGDALENA - 0.23 in.
 • 4 NE SEDILLO - 0.23 in.
 •  null CAPITAN - 0.22 in.
 • 1 SSW TIJERAS - 0.22 in.
 • 1 ESE FLORA VISTA - 0.22 in.
 • 2 SSW RUIDOSO - 0.22 in.
 • 5 ENE LOS CERRILLOS - 0.21 in.
 • 6 ENE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.21 in.
 • 12 SSW EL VADO - 0.21 in.
 •  null SOCORRO - 0.21 in.
 • 1 E RIO RANCHO - 0.20 in.
 • 5 NW CANONES - 0.20 in.
 • 3 WSW RIO RANCHO - 0.20 in.
 • 1 N MORIARTY - 0.20 in.
 • 3 ENE TUCUMCARI - 0.20 in.
 • 1 E SOCORRO - 0.20 in.
 • 1 SSE LUIS LOPEZ - 0.20 in.
 • 8 ENE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.19 in.
 • 2 N CORRALES - 0.19 in.
 • 5 ESE SANDIA PUEBLO - 0.19 in.
 • 7 NE STANLEY - 0.19 in.
 • 1 NNE LEMITAR - 0.18 in.
 • 8 W MCINTOSH - 0.18 in.
 • 2 N CHAMA - 0.18 in.
 • 6 SSE SANTA FE - 0.18 in.
 • 1 WNW WHITE ROCK - 0.17 in.
 • 3 N SEDILLO - 0.17 in.
 • 2 NW RIO LUCIO - 0.17 in.
 • 7 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.17 in.
 • 6 NW CARNUEL - 0.17 in.
 • 3 W RIO RANCHO - 0.16 in.
 • 4 E SAN ANTONITO - 0.16 in.
 • 6 WNW NOGAL - 0.16 in.
 • 1 SSE WHITE ROCK - 0.16 in.
 • 2 WNW MINERAL HILL - 0.16 in.
 • 1 W CORONA - 0.16 in.
 • 11 NNE OMEGA - 0.16 in.
 • 8 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.16 in.
 • 2 WSW RIO RANCHO - 0.16 in.
 • 3 SE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.16 in.
 •  null FRIJOLES - 0.16 in.
 •  null GRADY - 0.15 in.
 • 15 NNW BITTER LAKE WILDLIFE REF - 0.15 in.
 •  null ROWE - 0.15 in.
 • 1 SSW SAN ANTONIO - 0.15 in.
 • 1 SSE COCHITI LAKE - 0.15 in.
 • 3 N LOS CHAVEZ - 0.15 in.
 •  null TRES PIEDRAS - 0.15 in.
 • 3 E SAN ANTONITO - 0.15 in.
 • 2 SSW LOS ALAMOS - 0.14 in.
 • 1 ENE RIO RANCHO - 0.14 in.
 • 6 NE RIO RANCHO - 0.14 in.
 • 7 WNW CANONCITO - 0.14 in.
 • 10 ENE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.14 in.
 •  null MOUNTAINAIR - 0.14 in.
 • 3 SE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.14 in.
 • 1 WNW EL RANCHO - 0.14 in.
 • 3 NE BONITO LAKE - 0.14 in.
 • 8 NW ALBUQUERQUE - 0.14 in.
 • 5 ESE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.14 in.
 • 8 W SANDIA PARK - 0.13 in.
 • 4 SSE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.13 in.
 • 8 SSW RED RIVER - 0.13 in.
 • 3 WNW BERNALILLO - 0.13 in.
 • 10 SSW MESA - 0.13 in.
 • 2 WNW PONDEROSA - 0.12 in.
 • 6 WSW SAN ILDEFONSO PUEBLO - 0.12 in.
 • 4 WNW MCALISTER - 0.12 in.
 • 8 SE PLACITAS - 0.12 in.
 • 17 NW BANDELIER NATL MONUMENT - 0.12 in.
 • 1 WSW BELEN - 0.12 in.
 • 4 NW BANDELIER NATL MONUMENT - 0.12 in.
 • 7 ESE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.12 in.
 •  null ALCALDE - 0.12 in.
 • 1 S SANTA FE - 0.12 in.
 • 2 WNW SANDIA PUEBLO - 0.12 in.
 • 5 NE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.12 in.
 • 4 NW TUCUMCARI - 0.11 in.
 • 1 S MOUNTAINAIR - 0.11 in.
 • 1 ENE SANTA FE - 0.11 in.
 • 1 NE CARRIZOZO - 0.11 in.
 • 9 NE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.11 in.
 • 1 WSW SEDILLO - 0.11 in.
 • 9 NE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.11 in.
 • 4 SE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.10 in.
 • 1 NNE CORRALES - 0.10 in.
 • 4 SSW CUBA - 0.10 in.
 • 2 SW RIO RANCHO - 0.10 in.
 •  null RIO RANCHO - 0.10 in.
 • 4 WSW JARALES - 0.10 in.
 • 2 SSW SANTA CRUZ - 0.10 in.
 • 2 E AGUA FRIA - 0.10 in.
 • 4 WSW RIO RANCHO - 0.10 in.
 • 1 SSE CLINES CORNERS - 0.10 in.
 • 2 SSE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.10 in.
 • 4 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.10 in.
 • 2 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.10 in.
 • 2 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.10 in.

24-Hour Snowfall Totals.

 • 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE - 18.0 in.
 • 8 NE ARROYO SECO - 17.0 in.
 •  null EAGLE NEST - 10.0 in.
 • 11 NNW CANON PLAZA - 10.0 in.
 • 8 SE EAGLE NEST - 8.0 in.
 • 8 SW ROCIADA - 7.0 in.
 •  null CHAMA - 4.3 in.
 •  null RED RIVER - 4.0 in.
 • 9 ENE SHADY BROOK - 4.0 in.
 • 1 E ARROYO SECO - 3.3 in.
 • 5 SSE LLANO LARGO - 3.0 in.
 • 6 WNW TERERRO - 3.0 in.
 • 1 S SEDILLO - 2.5 in.
 • 11 ENE RED RIVER - 2.0 in.
 • 3 NW TAOS PUEBLO - 2.0 in.
 • 8 SSE TIJERAS - 1.6 in.
 • 13 NW TAOS - 1.6 in.
 •  null EDGEWOOD - 1.5 in.
 •  null SANDIA PARK - 1.3 in.
 • 1 ESE TRUCHAS - 1.1 in.
 • 2 SSW LOS CORDOVAS - 0.7 in.
 • 2 E SAN PABLO - 0.5 in.
 • 2 WNW CLOVIS - 0.5 in.
 • 2 NNW EDGEWOOD - 0.5 in.
 • 1 N RATON - 0.3 in.
 • 1 SE SAN ANTONIO - 0.2 in.
 •  null MADRID - 0.1 in.
 • 2 W PONDEROSA - 0.1 in.
 • 7 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.1 in.


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