Cold Front This Morning Brings Cooler Temps.


Blog updated at 12:45 PM MDT.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly from Guadalupe Mountains, to the Davis and Apache Mountains, to the Lower Trans Pecos. Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. A few storms may become severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall being the main concerns. In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.





High Temperatures Recorded Wednesday-

Sacramento Peak - Sunspot 70
Cloudcroft Climate 74
Bowl Raws 75

Timberon 81
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport 81
Smokey Bear Raws - Near Ruidoso 82
DRO - Weed 83
Mayhill Raws 84
Dog Canyon Raws 85
Queen Raws 88
Pinery Raws - Pine Springs 88

Guadalupe Pass 91
Dunken Raws 91
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center 95
2 SW Tatum 96
NW Hobbs - KM5BS 96
Caprock Raws 97
Hobbs Airport 97
Artesia Airport 97
10 ESE Hagerman 98

Roswell Airport 100
Carlsbad Airport 100
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 100
8-Mile Draw Raws - 18 NE Roswell 101
Paduca Raws - Near The WIPP Site 101

High Temperature Data Is Courtesy Of-


A cold front worked its way south into southeastern New Mexico overnight. Low clouds (stratocumulus) are covering parts of the area behind the front. These will burn off later this morning. Cooler temperatures are forecast for the area today with our afternoon high temperatures forecast to be in the mid-upper 80's.

Enjoy the brief bout of cooler weather because as is typical for this time of the year it will not last. By Saturday our afternoon high temperatures will climb back up into the mid-upper 90's. Sunday's highs will range from the upper 90's to the low 100's and this trend will continue into the middle of next week it appears. 

A few scattered t-storms may dot the landscape across parts of the local area this afternoon and evening. The best chances of this occurring will be over and near the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains.

 Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and locally heavy rain over and near the mountains of southwest Texas, and over and near the Guadalupe Mountains of southeastern New Mexico.

Selected Rainfall Totals For May 2012-

Chaves County New Mexico.

Eddy County New Mexico.

Lea County New Mexico.

Lincoln County New Mexico.

Otero County New Mexico.

Rainfall Totals Are Courtesy Of-


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Oklahoma City Hail Storm May 29, 2012.


Oklahoma City GRLevel2-AE Base Reflectivity Snapshot.
At 7:22 PM MDT Tue May 29, 2012.

Grapefruit size hail near Oklahoma City.
Courtesy of Meteorologist Reed Timmer.
Tue May 29, 2012.

Softball size hail in Oklahoma City.
Courtesy of Michael Ratliff.
Tue May 29, 2012.

5" Diameter hailstone in Oklahoma City.
(CD's are 5" in diameter.)
Tue May 29, 2012.

Giant hail in Oklahoma City.
Tue May 29, 2012.

6" diameter hailstone in Oklahoma City.
Courtesy of Storm Chaser Connor McCrorey.
Tue May 29, 2012.

On May 29th the TVN team documented this insane supercell just northwest of Oklahoma City. This storm produced hail up to 6 inches in diameter and a rain-wrapped tornado as it entered the northern suburbs, which we captured in the last part of the video. Luckily, several storms merged as the main supercell neared town which caused it to weaken and produce less hail.

Big hail falling on the evening of May 29, 2012, in northwest Oklahoma City. Some of it looks to be 3-4 inches in diameter. Near the end you can see the reflection of my car's flashers, as the alarm was going off.

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Hot Today & Wednesday!

El Capitan Fire Today.
Courtesy of Larry Pardue.





Smoke front the Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire drifted back into southeastern New Mexico overnight last night and early this morning.

As of this mornings briefing this massive fire had burned 152,012 acres and still remains 0% contained. It is on track to become the largest wildfire in the states history, surpassing even the Las Conchas Fire of last year. There are 1,112 firefighters fighting the fire but hot, dry, windy weather and steep terrain continues to hamper firefighting efforts.

Meanwhile firefighters continue to battle the El Capitan Fire burning near Guadalupe Peak. As of yesterday's noon briefing the fire had burned 200-400 acres. It is burning in very rugged terrain and firefighters are having to hike into the Guadalupe National Park to get to the fire.


Hot weather is forecast for the local area today and tomorrow as an upper-level ridge of high pressure settles in over northern Mexico. Highs today and tomorrow will range from near 100 to 105.

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Severe T-Storms Near The State Line & Across W TX.








Its a rather chilly morning across northern New Mexico and much of the Western US. Angel Fire located in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of northern New Mexico has been down to at least 16F this morning. Meanwhile our low temperatures here in SE NM have been fairly close to the seasonal norms with readings in the mid 50's to low 60's for the most part.

Severe Thunderstorms are forecast to break out across parts of west Texas this afternoon and evening. Supercell thunderstorms are forecast to fire up along a stationary frontal boundary, as well as along and east of the dryline. Some of these thunderstorms may produce very large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. There currently is a 60% chance for Skywarn Storm Spotter Activation by around Noontime MDT. The best chances for thunderstorms will generally be along and east of a Hobbs-Valentine-Lajitas line this afternoon and evening. There is the possibility that the severe weather threat may shift a little further to the west this afternoon.

As a ridge of high pressure builds over the area tomorrow and Wednesday hot weather is forecast to return to SE NM. We are expecting afternoon high temperatures in the mid-upper 90's today, near 100 to the low 100's tomorrow (104 in Carlsbad), and the upper 90's to near 100 on Wednesday.

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Back To Hot & Dry.

Blog updated at 12:50 PM MDT.


The map above looks more like an early fall temperature
map than an early summer map. Remember that the
 meteorological summer begins Fri, June 1st.





Say Goodbye To The Rain.

Scattered thunderstorms fired up late yesterday afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #301 was issued for NE/E/SE New Mexico and parts of west Texas until 9 PM MDT. As of 9:45 AM MDT this morning there have not been any severe weather reports submitted to our local National Weather Service Offices, at least none that I can find in their storm reports. Some of us did manage to get wet while most of us missed out.

A dry Pacific cold front will swing eastward across the state today, catching up to the dryline in southeastern New Mexico, and shoving our low-level supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico off to the east into west Texas by this afternoon. 

Our afternoon high temperatures today will be in the mid 90's accompanied by southwesterly wind gusts to around 25-30 mph. Highs on Memorial Day will be in the mid-upper 90's. Highs on Tuesday will range from 96 - 100. 

Our next shot of t-storms and cooler temps may occur by the end of next week as the models are forecasting a cold front to move south into the local area. Although there is a great deal of uncertainty at this time, the models are also hinting at the possibility of another Southwestern US storm by the end of next week.

Local rainfall totals.

Paduca Raws - Near The WIPP Site .81"
8.3 SSE Hobbs .58"
33.3 WSW Carlsbad - Queen .40"
Hobbs Airport .30"
South Hobbs .25"
Caprock Raws .16"
Northwest Hobbs - KM5BS .14"
Bowl Raws - North of Guadalupe Peak .12"
6.8 NW Carlsbad .12"
Carlsbad Airport .05"
Queen Raws .05"
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center .04"
Knowles .02"
Dog Canyon - SW of Queen .01"
McKittrick Canyon Raws .01"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad .01"
Derrick Ranch - W of Lovington .01"

Rainfall Totals Are Courtesy Of-




This mornings update on the massive Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire continues to indicate that the fire continues to rage out of control in the Gila Mountains of southwestern New Mexico. As of this mornings update the fire has burned 122,388 acres of forest. It was started by lightning on May 16th. The burn continues to burn out of control 15 miles east of Glenwood and is 0% contained.

 Firefighters are having a very difficult time trying to fight this fire due to the high winds, steep and rugged terrain, and very dry conditions. There are 604 fire fighters fighting this fire, and it currently is the largest wildfire in the US. To date there have been five injuries from the fire. The historic ghost town of Mogollon has been evacuated. At last count there had been 12 homes lost to the fire, and at least 14 outbuildings. Firefighters managed to save some 30 homes in the Willow Creek area.

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T-Storms - Heat - Wind For This Memorial Day Holiday Weekend.

Blog updated at 8:20 PM MDT.

Severe T-Storm Watch #301 Was Issued For NE/E/SE NM 
And W TX This Afternoon & Evening. At 8:05 PM MDT
A Line Of T-Storms Stretched Across SE NM. These 
T-Storms Were Moving Northeastward At Around
25 MPH. 







Today's Severe T-Storm Risk Area.

Today's Damaging Wind & Hail Risk Area.


Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and east of the dryline across southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas this afternoon and evening. Most of us have a 20% - 30% chance of seeing measurable rainfall by tonight.

Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, and frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning. 

Some of these thunderstorms may develop into Low Precipitating (LP) Supercells this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. An isolated tornado or two will be possible with any of these LP Supercell thunderstorms.

At this time (10:50 AM MDT) Skywarn Spotter Activation is not currently anticipated across the Midland NWS County Warning Area. However, this could change by this afternoon. All Midland NWS Skywarn Storm Spotters are asked to remain alert to this potential, as well as the possibility of Spotter Activation across parts of the area later today.

A dry Pacific cold front will swing eastward across the state tomorrow. This will sweep the low-level moisture eastward out of southeastern New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon. Southerly winds will gust up to around 30 - 40 mph across the local area this afternoon. These winds will become southwesterly on Sunday and will once again gust up to around 30 - 40 mph.

Our high temperatures this afternoon will range from near 90 to the mid 90's. Similar temperatures are forecast for Sunday. Memorial Day will see afternoon highs in the low 90's. As a ridge of high pressure builds over the area by Tuesday, our afternoon highs will once again climb back up into the upper 90's to near 100.

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Lots of Heat & Wind...Maybe A Few T-Storms For The Holiday Weekend.










As of this morning the Whitewater-Baldy Fire Complex had burned 82,252 acres of forest in southwestern New Mexico. So far 12 cabins and 13 outbuildings have been lost, and no additional buildings have been lost in the past 24 hours. Firefighters are facing a very difficult situation with this monstrous fire because it is burning in very steep terrain, and high winds continue to plague the area. High winds will continue to rake the area into Saturday.




Hot, dry, breezy to windy weather is forecast for southeastern New Mexico today into Sunday. Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from 96 to 100 today, near 90 to 98 Saturday, and the low-mid 90's on Sunday. Memorial Day looks toasty with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 90's.

Red Flag Warnings have been hoisted across all of southeastern New Mexico today, as well as across parts of southern New Mexico, as well as the northern two thirds of the state.

Historic Drought Continues In Spite Of Recent Rains.



Our continuing hot, dry, windy weather is a reminder that the back of our historic drought has not been broken over the local area yet. This in spite of the widespread 1.50" to 3.50" of rain that most of southeastern New Mexico received a couple of weeks ago. We still need roughly about another 12" to 14" of rain to get back to normal.

The dryline was parked across west Texas this afternoon and will retreat westward back into southeastern New Mexico tonight. An approaching short wave may help break the cap and kick off a few scattered thunderstorms across west Texas this afternoon and evening. A second short wave could also enhance this activity later tonight as it approaches from Mexico.

Its possible that a few thunderstorms could fire along the dryline in southeastern New Mexico later tonight. A few of these thunderstorms could possible become severe and produce large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, mainly across parts of west Texas. A widespread severe weather outbreak it currently not anticipated, nor is spotter activation currently anticipated. Any thunderstorms that do manage to pop up will be widely scattered in nature.

The dryline should remain parked in southeastern New Mexico tomorrow into Sunday afternoon. It may mix a little eastward tomorrow afternoon into Lea County.

Areas along and east of the dryline will have a slight chance of seeing a few widely scattered thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. Again its possible that a few of these could become severe.

Hot dry downslopping southwesterly winds will rake the area tomorrow afternoon to the west of the dryline with gusts up around 40 mph. A dry Pacific cold front is forecast to sweep eastward across the area Sunday afternoon. This front will sweep the dryline and its associated gulf of mexico moisture eastward out of southeastern New Mexico. The front will not bring much relief from the heat to the area.

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