Another Cool Morning.





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Isaac Slowly Dissipating - Heavy Rain & Flooding Continue.

Blog updated at 1:13 PM MDT.

A sherriff's vehicle sits in flood waters caused by Isaac,
 Thursday, Aug. 30, 2012, north of LaPlace, La, off Lake Pontchartrain.


Sherry Henson (L) and Charmin Cosse work in the water to try to
 save cattle along Highway 23 after Hurricane ISAAC in  Plaquemines
 Parish, Louisiana August 30, 2012. REUTERS/Sean Gardner. 


Residents use airboats to push cattle to higher ground after
 Hurricane Isaac along Highway 23 in Plaquemines Parish,
 Louisiana August 30, 2012. REUTERS/Sean Gardner.

Carlo Maltese and his dog Pin ride in a boat after being rescued
 from his flooded home as Hurricane Isaac hits  Wednesday,
 Aug. 29, 2012, in Braithwaite, La. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

GRLevl3 Mobile, AL Estimated Rainfall Totals.

GRLevl3 Mobile, AL Estimated Rainfall Totals.




Tropical Storm Isaac was located 50 miles south of Monroe, Louisiana, or 165 miles northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana as of 9 AM MDT this morning. Isaac continues to slowly weaken as he heads north-northwestward at 9 mph. His winds are sustained at 40 mph with higher gusts, and the central pressure has risen up to 29.15 inches of mercury, or 987 millibars. 

Isaac will continue to weaken, and by tonight the storm should only be a depression. The storm is forecast to move over Louisiana today, into Arkansas tonight, and southern Missouri by Friday night.

Isaac has produced some very rainfall amounts across parts of Louisiana and Alabama. A CoCoRaHS station located 2.3 miles WSW of Hammond is reporting a two day total of 11.93".   Storm total rainfall amounts of 7" 14", with isolated totals of up to 25", are expected from Isaac before the rains end. Flooding and flash flooding continues this morning as a result of these heavy rains and storm surge. Some 700,000 residents have been left without power in the area. 

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Isaac Flooding New Orleans & Nearby Areas.

Blog updated at 6:00 PM MDT.

Nearly 1000+ Homes have been evacuated in LaPlace in St. John Parish due to Flash Flooding coupled with the nearby lake Flooding. This picture comes from Twitter. President states evacuations and rescues are ongoing now as rain continues to fall.

 Braithwaite, LA (Plaquemines Parish). Last evening we reported on Levee issues in Plaquemines Parish. This may be a storm surge combined with flash flooding issue.

From WBRZ: I-10 in LaPlace underwater and impassable. 

Via @wildwayne: Pic of Flooded subdivisions in LaPlace, LA.

@wdsu @WWLTV this was sent from Myrtle Grove. p.twimg.com


Troopers patrolling the Troop L area took time to rescue this young fawn stranded by rising water on LA 22 in Madisonville, LA. Master Trooper Bill Blackwell is pictured carrying the fawn to high ground where it was reunited with its mother.

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Cool Morning Low Temps.




With the meteorological starting Saturday mother nature gave us a prelude this morning. Early low temperature readings coming in just after sunrise indicate the 40's in the Sacramento Mountains, and the 50's and 60's across the southeastern plains. Enjoy these temps because we are slated to heat up again this weekend into the first of next week. Our highs are forecast to climb back up to the upper 90's to the low 100's. It appears we have no chance of rain either.

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Hurricane Isaac Nearly Stationary Overnight.


GRLevel2-AE (Analyst) Snapshot At 6:15 AM MDT.

 GRLevel3 2.00 Estimated Rainfall Totals.





Seven years ago today,  Category 3 Hurricane Katrina was pounding the New Orleans and surrounding areas. As the sun rises this morning yet another Hurricane (Isaac) is battering the city and surrounding areas.

 As of 5 AM MDT, Hurricane Isaac was located about 20 miles southeast of Houma, or about 50 miles south-southwest of New Orleans. Issac had remained pretty much stationary overnight, but at times taking a jog to the southwest and west.

 His average movement now is to the northwest at 6 mph. This is forecast to continue today, although the possibility of additional wobbles in Isaac's track may also occur. The longer Isaac lingers or stalls in the area, the greater the impacts from the winds, heavy rains, and storm surge.

Isaac has sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 100 mph. Some gusts over 100 mph have been reported overnight at a few stations. Isaac has a central pressure of 28.64 inches of mercury, or 970 millibars. Once Isaac gets further inland he is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm. This may not happen for another 24-hours. 

Isaac's storm surge is reported to have topped  the 8' - 9' levee in Plaquemines Parish early this morning, with 12' -14' of flood waters driving residents out of their homes, and into their attics, and onto their roofs. Mandatory evacuation orders had been in effect, but an unknown number of residents refused to evacuate. An 18-mile stretch of the levee is reported to have been flooded this morning.   

Up to 20 inches of rain is forecast to fall on New Orleans and surrounding areas complicating the flooding issues from the levee over topping. Flash flooding will likely become more widespread today into tomorrow. The longer Isaac lingers the worse this will become. A Tornado Watch continues in effect, with several tornado warnings already have been issued. 

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Isaac Now A Hurricane.




GRLevel 2-AE (Analyst) Cross Section View.
New Orleans NWS Doppler Radar Snapshot At 11:15 AM MDT.


GRLevel3 2.00 Base 0.5 Degree View.
New Orleans NWS Doppler Radar Snapshot At 12:12 PM MDT.

NHC Forecast Track Of Hurricane Isaac.

At 10:20 AM MDT this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Isaac to a Hurricane. Very little has changed in the status of Isaac since that update, and the latest advisory issued at Noon MDT/1 PM CDT. Hurricane Isaac is located about 55 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, or 135 miles southeast of New Orleans. Isaac's has sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts to 85 mph. He continues moving to the northwest at 10 mph. 

Some wobbling may occur this afternoon into tonight, but if the Hurricane continues on its current forecast track, Isaac is headed straight for New Orleans. Its very possible that Isaac may strengthen into a Category 2 Hurricane before landfall. Hopefully Isaac will not get any stronger than this, the Hurricane is going to cause enough problems as it is, as it moves inland into Louisiana and the New Orleans area.

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Waiting On Isaac.






Inland With 115 MPH Sustained Winds - Category 3.
Valid At 6 AM MDT/7 AM CDT Wednesday August 29, 2012.



Waiting, waiting, and more waiting on Isaac to strengthen into a Hurricane. Isaac remains a tropical storm as the sun rises over the cyclone this morning. For three days now we have been waiting for the storm to strengthen into a Hurricane and this just has not happened yet. No doubt this has got to be wearing on the nerves of the people living along the coastline of Louisiana, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. Playing the hurry up and wait game with a Tropical Storm or Hurricane cannot be fun, and more of this may be in store for these folks over the next 24 - 36 hours.

  Isaac continues to battle dry air at the mid-levels, and this dry air intrusion is disrupting the storms circulation preventing it from strengthening.  If you looked at last night's satellite images of Isaac, you could see that the cyclone had the appearance of being cut in half for much of the night, this was the result of the dry air first wrapping around the eastern side of the storm, and then later the northern side. Another factor inhibiting Isaac from becoming a Hurricane is the shear size of the storm. Isaac's pressure continues to drop and there are signs that he may go ahead and strengthen into a Hurricane today...we've heard that before right, time will tell.

Tropical Storm Isaac was located about 105 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River as of 6 AM MDT this morning. Once again Isaac took a jog to the west overnight, but early this morning his overall movement is now to the northwest at 7 mph. Isaac has slowed down in his forward speed from 14 mph yesterday to 7 mph this morning. He may down a little more today into tonight. Isaac is forecast to basically continue on his northwestward trek today into tomorrow, with some fluctuation in this track and speed possible.

Isaac has sustained winds of 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph. His central pressure has continued to fall and was down to 28.82 inches of mercury, or 976 millibars as of the 6 AM MDT advisory. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward from the center of the storm to 205 miles. Currently the NHC is calling for a storm surge of 6' - 12' along the southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi coastline, when Isaac makes landfall tonight or early Wednesday. If Isaac strengthens today this could change. 

Isaac is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 7" - 14" with isolated totals of 20" in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle. Flashing flooding will be a huge concern in these areas once Isaac moves inland. Tornadoes will be possible today and tonight along the northern Gulf Coast.

Personally, I hope that Isaac does not pull a fast one on everyone and significantly strengthen today into tonight before making landfall. There are a lot of people living in the New Orleans area who did not evacuate, and this could get ugly if Isaac does this.

Please remember that there is still some uncertainty concerning Isaac's exact track and strength from today until he makes landfall sometime within the next 24 - 36 hours. Don't be surprised if Isaac does the unexpected, Hurricanes have a reputation of doing this sometimes.

Please visit the following National Weather Service Offices, listed below, for further details in the local areas that may be impacted by Isaac.



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East Carlsbad, NM Hit With A Wet Microburst Sunday.









A Wet Microburst from a thunderstorm slammed the east side of Carlsbad, New Mexico yesterday afternoon. My family and I were at the Elks Pool at the time, and I took all of the above photos from there. The thunderstorm was located to our east, and I estimated that we got rocked by at least 60 mph wind gusts at the pool.

 A home weather station located in the Ridgecrest Subdivision, on the Carlsbad Municipal Golf Course, recorded a peak wind gust from this thunderstorm of 70 mph at 3:09 PM MDT. That station recorded .49" from the storm, while my home weather station located on the northwest side of town only recorded a trace of rain. No doubt heavier rain fell east and southeast of the pool. As far as I am aware, there was no hail associated with the storm. I guess you can say that instead of core punching this storm, I got cored punched by it. It was an interesting experience, since we all ran to the bathrooms and the main lodge to seek shelter from the storm.

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Isaac Getting Better Organized.





Update At 3:00 PM MDT-

Tropical Storm Isaac  is slowly strengthening as of the 3 PM MDT advisory from the NHC. Isaac's sustained winds are now up to 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph. His central pressure is dropping at 28.97 inches of mercury, or 981 millibars. Isaac is moving to the northwest at 12 mph. The storm is slowing down in its forward movement, and strengthening will likely continue over the next 24 hours. The pressure has dropped 7 millibars since last advisory.

Isaac has been wobbling to the west this afternoon. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) has developed, and an eye is showing up in the Recon data. Dry air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere still lurks to the east and southeast of the CDO, and if this dry air is ingested within the storm, it will disrupt the circulation and slow the strengthening process. Otherwise, a very favorable upper-level pattern awaits Isaac as he moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf over the next 24-hours. Isaac could be a Hurricane by the 6 PM MDT Advisory.

Update At 1:27PM MDT-

Tropical Storm Isaac  still has sustained winds of 65 mph with gusts near 75 mph as per the Noon MDT National Hurricane Center update. Isaac's pressure is slowly dropping at 29.06 of mercury, or 984 millibars. Isaac is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. The NHC still thinks that Isaac will slow down in his forward movement and strengthen with the next 24 hours. Isaac is forecast to continue on a west-northwest to northwest course over the next 24 hours. Again, even though I sound like a broken record when saying this, there still remains a great deal on uncertainty concerning the exact track and strength of Isaac

Update At 9:50 AM MDT-

Little has changed with Tropical Storm Isaac's strength and forecast track as of the 9 AM MDT briefing from the NHC. Issac still has sustained winds of 65 mph gusting near 75 mph. He was located about 310 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and continues moving off to the west-northwest at 14 mph. His central pressure remains the same at 29.18 inches of mercury, or 988 millibars.

Tropical Storm Isaac has become better organized overnight, but has not strengthened as of 6 AM MDT. Isaac had sustained winds of 65 mph with gusts to near 75 mph at this time. His central pressure had fallen to 29.18 inches of mecury, or 988 millibars. Isaac took a jog to the west last night, but is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph this morning. Tropical storm force winds extend 240 miles outward from the center. 

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to struggle as far as strengthening into a Hurricane is concerned this morning. Initially the storm was forecast to reach Hurricane strength yesterday as it cleared the Florida Keys. Now out over the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this has yet to happen. However, Isaac's pressure is slowly dropping this morning and he is still forecast to become a Hurricane within 24-hours. 

Isaac Headed To New Orleans?





T.S. Isaac Forecast Tracks.

Last Night's 06Z/Midnight MDT Model Forecasts.



GFS, HWRF Model Forecasts Of T. S. Isaac.

This Morning's 12Z/6 AM MDT Model Forecasts.


12Z/6 AM MDT GFDL Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 29, 2012.
Inland Near The LA/TX State Line With 129 MPH Winds - Category 3 or 4.


12Z/6 AM MDT HWRF Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 28, 2012.
Inland Near New Orleans With 147 MPH Winds - Category 4.

Tropical Cyclone Potential Impacts.

One of the hardest things to forecast is a Hurricane's strength and track. Isaac is giving meteorologists and forecasters a run for their money, and so far, has failed to live up to model forecasts strength-wise. Today should be crucial as far as how much Isaac strengthens, and where he eventually heads. Should the storm slow down, and track further to the west, out over the warmer Loop Current located in the central Gulf of Mexico, Isaac could potentially explode in intensity. If the storm tracks more to the north then this is less likely to happen. Isaac is forecast to slow his forward movement off to the northwest today, and this too should allow the storm to strengthen. 

Last nights models have continued the trend of forecasting the track of Isaac further to the west with time. Some of these model forecasts have indicated that Isaac could move right up to the mouth of the Mississippi River, south of New Orleans, and either stall or crawl slowly inland as a powerful Category 3, or 4 Hurricane. Will this happen? We simply don't know yet.

Anyone living along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Peninsula (click on this map to visit any National Weather Service Office in the affected areas) should take stay abreast of Isaac's track today, and be prepared to react accordingly, tomorrow may be too late.

 For now, it appears that Isaac is taking on New Orleans, slamming the city sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday. Ironically, this comes seven years, nearly to the day, that Category 3 Hurricane Katrina devastated the city on August 29, 2005.

It is very important to note that the exact track and strength of Isaac is not yet a given. This may, and likely, will change today, as the Tropical Storm moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. 

There has been, and continues to be, a lot of comparisons to Isaac possibly repeating Hurricane Katrina's track, strength, and impacts on New Orleans seven years ago. Many people are wondering whether or not Isaac is going to be another Katrina, or God forbid, something worse. Honestly, nobody knows for sure yet, so its best to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best, if you live in any of the possible areas that may be affected by Isaac!

 Please visit the following National Weather Service Offices, listed below, for further details in the local areas that may be impacted by Isaac this week.


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