Unusually Warm Today - Windy Too.


Unusually Warm Today.


Today will be unusually warm across southeastern New Mexico with our afternoon highs forecast to range from near 80 to the low 80's. These temperatures will be some 15-25 degrees above normal. Similar readings are expected for Friday. A few daily record high temp records may come close to being tied or broken today and tomorrow.

A surface low located over northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado combined with a tight surface pressure gradient has caused dry downsloping westerly winds to really scream this morning across the northeastern plains. The Crews Airport at Raton clocked a peak wind gust of 82 mph at 5:04 AM MST this morning.

High Wind Warnings are in effect for much of New Mexico today from the northern mountains eastward out into parts of the northeastern and eastern plains near the mountains. West winds sustained at around 40-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph and occasionally higher are forecast today for these areas. This includes the Ruidoso area.

A High Wind Warning continues in effect today for the Guadalupe Mountains for westerly winds sustained at around 35-50 mph with gusts near 70 mph.

Red Flag Warnings continue in effect for southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.

Next Week.


Colder and unsettled weather is still on track to return to the area next week. However the models are flip flopping all over the place with their forecasts concerning this. A complete 180-degree turn around is now seen with the European (ECMWF) model . Which was just going nuts with a heavy snow forecast for the area. Now it barley shows anything. Not only is mother nature going to take on a bipolar mode swing next week...apparently some of the models are having their share of  extreme mode swings too. Lots of changes coming in the upper air pattern has the models jumping all over the place.

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Rare Winter Storm Leaves Students, Drivers Stranded In Deep South.



Rescue efforts are under way Wednesday morning after thousands of schoolchildren and hundreds of drivers in the Deep South spent the night stranded at schools and along ice-covered highways following a rare winter storm that brought freezing rain, snow and bitter cold to the region.
The National Guard is sending military Humvees onto Atlanta’s snarled freeway system in an attempt to move stranded school buses and get food and water to students on them, Gov. Nathan Deal said early Wednesday. Several inches of snow blanketed the region the day before.
Deal said the Georgia State Patrol is also sending troopers to schools where children remain stuck after spending the night in classrooms. His statement says state transportation crews are continuing to treat roads and bring gas to stranded motorists.
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Ice Storm Strands Thousands in Ill-Equipped South.


Ice Storm Strands Thousands in Ill-Equipped South


Traffic inched along the connector of Interstate's 75 & 85 in Atlanta
on Tuesday. Courtesy of Ben Gray/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution via
the Associated Press.

ATLANTA — Thousands of commuters were trapped in cars overnight on highways in the greater Atlanta area, hundreds of students remained inside dozens of schools Wednesday morning and at least 50 children spent the night on school buses because of an ice storm that is still gripping the deepest parts of the South.
Residents ran out of medicine, a baby was born to a stranded mother and pleas for help flooded Twitter and Facebook as a region that rarely deals with ice and snow came to a screeching halt during a rare meteorological event that was still icing points this morning as far south as Brownsville, Tex.

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Changes In Our Local Wx Are Coming.


Blog Updated @ 10:58 AM MST This Morning.













Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Friday, January 31, 2014.

For the past month an unusually strong ridge (West Coast Death Ridge) of high pressure (500 MB) has been more or less anchored just off the Western U.S. Coastline. Finally the models are showing signs of this ridge breaking down. A disturbance diving southward out of northwestern Canada and into the Pacific Northwest tonight into Friday will help to break this ridge down. By Friday at sunset a trough of low pressure (500 MB) will be sweeping across the state. 

Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, January 30, 2014.

Arctic air continues its grip over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas this morning with local temperatures in the single digits and teens. We will climb up out of the deep freeze this afternoon with our forecast high temps expected to be in the mid-upper 50's. This warming trend will escalate on Thursday with our high temperatures across southeastern New Mexico ranging from the upper 70's to the low 80's.  Friday will see highs in the mid-upper 70's. These temperatures will average some 15 to 20-degrees above normal for the end of January.

High Winds - Blowing Dust -
Critically Dangers Fire Weather Conditions



Unfortunately not only we warm up Thursday and Friday but our dry downsloping southwesterly winds will also crank up. Southwesterly winds sustained at around 20-30 mph with gusts near 40-50 mph appear likely Thursday and Friday across the southeastern plains.

A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for southwesterly-westerly  winds that will be sustained at around 35-45 mph with gusts near near 65 mph. 

A High Wind Watch is also in effect for Lincoln County for late tonight into Thursday evening for westerly winds sustained at around 40-45 mph with gusts near 65 mph.

A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for Thursday across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas for Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions. Simply put please avoid any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flame! Any wildfire that may develop will have the ability to rapidly spread and grow in the very dry conditions and high winds.

Areas of blowing dust will also develop across the area especially during the higher wind gusts. Normally dust prone locations such as open, exposed, or freshly plowed fields and farmlands, and construction sites will likely see localized visibilities drop down to less than one mile at times. 

Another potential hazards (as crazy as it sounds) will be tumbling tumbleweeds. Sounds like a joke right? Id bet the folks in Clovis, New Mexico aren't laughing. Check out these photos if you haven't seen them already. Combine dense piles of these weeds along with tender dry conditions, high winds, and you have a potentially explosive fire weather situation. Trust me its no laughing matter for those affected!


Last Night's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday, February 6, 2014.

Last Night's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST February 7, 2014.







I was floored when I looked at last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) forecast model. This particular run of this model is forecasting a foot or more of snow from southeastern New Mexico northeastward to at least the Dallas/Fort Worth area in about ten days. Take this with one huge grain of salt.

 Specifically Roswell 11.6", Artesia 13.5", Carlsbad 13.7", Hobbs 17.3", Lubbock 22", and DFW 13". This one simply left me speechless for awhile. But...there is always a "but", we are talking about a storm that hasn't formed yet, and one that may or may not form, and if it does its still ten days away! And if it does form as this model is forecasting, will it actually produce this type of historic widespread heavy snowfall...the odds are in favor of no! But...there it is again, if this happens, then I will be saying "Hey Ma Look...Pigs Can Fly."

Lat Night's Canadian (GEM) Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday, February 5, 2014.

Last nights 00Z/5 PM MST run of the Canadian model is forecasting another strong shot of arctic air into the area again by around next Tuesday. Check out its forecast (map above) of lows in the single digits and teens for southeastern New Mexico...even a few below zero readings by next Wednesday.

Lat Night's Canadian (GEM) Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday, February 5, 2014.

What is becoming more certain with time is that a pattern change will be coming starting late this week. Long-range models point to more arctic invasions and perhaps an increase in the storm activity across New Mexico and nearby areas over the next couple of weeks. February looks like it will start off with a bang.

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Colder In The Southeastern Plains This AM Than In Cloudcroft & Sunspot.






Valid @ 5 PM MST Today.









This morning was one of those rare occasions when our low temperatures in southeastern New Mexico were colder than some low temps in the Sacramento mountains. The higher elevations of the Sac's in the Sunspot and Cloudcroft areas are reporting lows in the 20's, while lows across southeastern New Mexico are in the single digits and teens. 

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Regional Temps At 3 PM MST.






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Tumbleweed Invasion In Clovis, NM This Morning!


Blog updated @ 10:20 PM MST.

Tumbleweed drift in Clovis, New Mexico (Photo: Duane Chase).






Welcome To Tumbleweed Hell.

This is just friggin nuts even by New Mexico's standards!!!

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A Cold Reality.


By Alan Caruba.


Quote- 

"It’s not as if those in the Northeast have not experienced bone-chilling cold or that it is predicted to extend from the Midwest down into our southern States. There may possibly be a snow storm that will require the National Football League to reschedule the Sunday, February 2ndSuperbowl at the MetLife stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Crews spent 18 hours working to remove the snow from last week’s storm.

A visit to IceAgeNow.info yielded headlines of news stories last week that included “Record Cold—Millions of Americans hit by Propane Shortage”, “Ice and Snow Closed Texas highways This Morning”, “Ice-cover Shuts Down Work on New Hudson River Bridge”, and so you understand this is a global phenomenon, “Kashmir—Heaviest January Snowfall in a Decade”, “Heavy Snowfall Sweeps Eastern Turkey”, “Romania—Heavy Snowfall and Blizzard”. And “Bangkok Suffers Coldest Night in Three Decades—Death Roll Mounts.”

Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics and editor ofhttp://www.icecap.us says that, as the President addresses the nation on Tuesday, every State will have freezing temperatures and parts or all of 27 States will be below zero.

All this is occurring as President Barack Obama is anticipated to talk about “climate change”, a warming Earth, during his Tuesday State of the Union speech. He will be speaking to the idiots who still think the Earth is warming because they are too stupid or lazy to ask why it is so cold.

Michael Bastasch, writing for The Daily Caller on Saturday, confirmed D’Aleo’s and other meteorologist’s forecasts. “The bitter cold that has hit the U.S. East Coast is expected throughout February, and on Jan 28—the day of the address—the Mid-Atlantic region is expected to be hit with freezing cold air that could drive temperatures below zero in big cities among the I-95 corridor.”

Washington, D.C. will be one of those cities, but as Bastasch reported, “Environmentalists and liberal groups are urging Obama to use the speech to reaffirm his commitment to fighting global warming. ‘President Obama should rank the battle against climate change as one of his top priorities in his State of the Union speech next week’, said Center for Clean Air Policy president Ned Heime.”

For environmentalists, it does not matter if the real climate is a deep cold. They committed to the lies about global warming in the late 1980s and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel and Climate Change (IPCC) has maintained the hoax ever since. Along the way we learned that the computer models on which it based its assertions and predictions were rigged and bogus, but that has not deterred the IPCC which is now referring to a “pause” in global warming. This is lying on a global scale.

It was the environmental group Greenpeace that put out a television advertisement featuring a Santa Claus telling children that he might have to call off Christmas because the North Pole was melting. How malicious can they get? When a group of global warming scientists and tourists took a ship to the Antarctic to measure the “melting” ice down there, the ship got caught in the ice which also resisted the efforts of two icebreaker ships to rescue them.

We are dealing with environmental groups, the IPCC and government leaders like Obama for whom the telling of huge and blatantly obvious lies about global warming is nothing compared to the billions generated by the hoax for the universities and scientists that line their pockets supporting it and industries that benefit by offering ways to capture carbon dioxide or conserve energy by first banning incandescent light bulbs.

The “pause” has lasted now for seventeen years and, as is the case with all climate on the Earth, the reason is the Sun. 

A report published by CBN News noted that “The last time the sun was this quiet, North America and Europe suffered through a weather event from the 1600s to the 1800s known as ‘Little Ice Age’ when the Thames River in London regularly froze solid, and North America saw terrible winters. Crops failed and people starved.”

Jens Pedersen, a senior scientist at Denmark’s Technical University, said that climate scientists know the Earth stopped warming 15 years ago. But the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of which Pedersen is an expert reviewer, suppressed a recent report from its own scientists that the U.N.’s climate model has been proven wrong.

“Global warming is nowhere to be found,” said David Deming, a geophysicist at the University of Colorado, in a January 16 commentary in The Washington Times. “As frigid conditions settled over the nation, global-warming alarmists went into full denial mode”, adding that “weather extremes also seem to bring out the lunatic fringe” and that is why the public is being told that cold weather has been caused by global warming!

Whatever the President has to say about “climate change” should be taken as just one more example of five years of lies to advance policies that have nothing to do with the welfare of Americans needing jobs or the execrable Obamacare attack on the U.S. healthcare system.

The cold reality may well be a Superbowl played on another day and a President for whom the truth is incidental to his shredding of the U.S. Constitution, the increase in the nation’s ever-growing debt, a lagging economy, and his intention to by-pass Congress rather than working with it.

That kind of thing will put a chill up any American’s spine if you think about it."

© Alan Caruba, 2014.

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North Wind Gust To 60+ MPH With Arctic Frontal Passage.












If your shutters on your windows were rattling between 2 and 3 AM this morning it was because of the arrival of the arctic cold front. The Bat Draw Raws clocked a peak gust out of the north of 64 mph, the Caprock Raws 62 mph, and the Clovis Municipal Airport 61 mph. Blowing dust also accompanied the frontal passage.The visibility dropped down to 1 mile in blowing dust in a few spots during the highest wind gusts.

Local temperatures at 6 AM MST this morning are in the upper 20's to near 32F. Wind chill values are ranging between 10F - 20F. Most of southeastern New Mexico will only see high temperatures this afternoon in the 30's with a few spots flirting with the 40-degree mark.

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Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Current Temperatures

Current Wind Chill Temps

Regional Radar

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

NWS Storm Total Precipitation Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Snowfall Forecast