Year-To-Date Average Temperatures & Rainfall.

New Mexico Rainfall - Sept 2016.

(As Of Sept 29th, 2016).

New Mexico Rainfall Departure From Normal - Sept 2016.

(As Of Sept 29th, 2016).

Regional Rainfall Totals.

(As Of Sept 29, 2016).

Most of the southern one half of New Mexico has averaged above normal this September as far as rainfall is concerned. Across the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains eastward out onto the southeastern plains most of us are averaging 1" to 5" above normal for the month. Except for our home in Carlsbad where I've recorded an even 2.00" for the month...which is not far below normal which is 2.11".  

Average Temperatures For September 2016.

(As Of Sept 29th, 2016).

Overall temperatures across New Mexico have been running close to normal or slightly below normal for this month. This is also true for much of the Western and Southwestern U.S. 

2016 Year-To-Date Average Temperatures.

Temperatures so far for the year are close to normal in New Mexico and parts of Texas.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Cold Front Has Arrived - Monday Continues To Look Much Colder/Wet.

Strong Cold Front Has Pushed Into West Texas.

Surface Map @ Noon MDT Today.

Finally our anticipated cold front has arrived...although somewhat slower than what the models had originally forecast. So this means that our high temperatures today in southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas will be a little warmer than originally forecast as well. 

Temperatures @ 11 AM MDT This Morning.

Local Temperatures @ Noon MDT Today.

As of noon today the coolest reading I can find was 48ºF at the Buck Mountain Automated Weather Station (10,720') located near Sierra Blanca Peak, west of Ruidoso. A close second was the Sunspot Solar Observatory (9,255') with 49ºF. The Smokey Bear Raws in Ruidoso (7,090') was reporting a temp of 59ºF while a Personal Weather Station in Cloudcroft (8,698') was reporting 51ºF. Here at our home in Carlsbad my Davis Vantage Pro2 Home Weather Station was reporting 73ºF. 

With the cold front now in West Texas and continuing to push to the south and east, and the increase in the low cloud deck, our temps will holding steady for awhile then slowly drop through the afternoon. 

Northeasterly winds have gusted in the 25-40 mph range this morning along and behind the cold front. 

Satellite Images Show Moisture Increasing Over The Region.

Water Vapor Satellite Image @ 11:45 AM MDT This Morning.

Infrared Satellite Image @ 11:15 AM MDT This Morning.

Low level upslope flow behind the cold front has commenced. Local aviation observations show that a low deck of clouds ranging from 1,900 above ground level in Hobbs, to between 3,500' and 5,500' above the ground level in the Roswell, Artesia, and Carlsbad areas continue to thicken and lower. Abundant mid and high level moisture is also streaming in from the southwest over the top of this lower cloud deck from near the Baja California Region. 

RAP 500 MB Analysis @ 11 AM MDT This Morning.

As has been forecast for the past week our upper level storm continues to dig southward into Northwestern Old Mexico nearing the noon hour today. It is located south of Tucson and is forecast to become a cutoff upper level low and slowly retrograde or wobble southwestward or westward over the next day or so. The red shaded colors on the map indicate dry air at the mid levels of the atmosphere while the gray shade over West Texas and New Mexico indicates moisture. The light and darker blue blob south of Midland, Texas indicates a cluster of thunderstorms.

Radar Beginning To Light Up With Echoes.

Local GR2Analyst 2.00 @ 12:50 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Radar is coming alive with echoes as the low and mid level moisture begin to interact with the upper level storm to our southwest. This trend is forecast to continue today into Monday morning.

As of 1 PM MDT this afternoon this is where the heaviest rainfall has already fallen across West Texas. Radar estimates some 3" to 6" fell roughly from the Sterling City area northeastward to the Sweetwater area over the past 24 hours.

NDFD NWS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

(Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday).

NDFD NWS Forecast High Temps Monday.

NDFD NWS Forecast High Temp Departure From Normal Monday.

So with our high temperatures on Monday to be in the 50's to near 60ºF these readings will be some 20 to 30 degrees below normal for the date. Not to worry Monday will still feel very much like fall so bundle up the kiddos for school tomorrow morning. 

NWS Midland Total Rainfall Forecast Today Into Monday Morning.

With the cutoff low to our southwest having decided to back up, or go in reverse so to speak,(technical term is retrograde) this will lessen our chances of  widespread heavy rainfall across southeastern New Mexico. Simply because its the main mechanism that is keeping the atmosphere unstable and providing the lift necessary to produce our rainfall and thunderstorms. The further away from us it is the less rain we get. Given all of this I suspect that there will be a few spots that get hammered with an inch or two of rain by Monday evening. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for West Texas today through Monday morning. Some locals may get another 2" to 4" of rain. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Raw-Wet-Blustery Weather On Tap Sunday Into Monday.

9-15-2016

Hidalgo Gas Plant - West Of Orla, TX.

Strong Western Storm Digs South Today.

500 MB Analysis @ 6 AM MDT This Morning.

A strong storm centered over southern Wyoming at sunrise this morning will continue to lift off to the northeast today. 

06Z/Midnight Last Night GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.

Meanwhile at the base of this storm a piece of its energy will drop southward into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico sunset tonight. A cutoff upper level low will develop just south of Arizona on Sunday and will still be parked there by sunrise Monday. This cutoff low depicted here at the 500 millibar level or roughly at 18,000' above sea level will have been "cutoff" or separated from the jet stream to its north over the northern plains. Therefore it will just sit down there for a couple of days and spin away trapped by the upper level ridge by its west and north.

Cold This Morning Across The Western U.S.

Without a doubt it feels very much like fall across the Western U.S. at sunrise this morning. Notice the widespread temperatures in the 30's. 

Reported Low Temperatures This Morning.

(As Of 7:30 AM MDT).

NDFD NWD Forecast High Temperatures Today.

Today will be the last day with high temperatures above normal for about the next week. Most of southeastern New Mexico will see the low 80's this afternoon with some locations in West Texas flirting with 90ºF. The higher elevations of the northern New Mexico and southern Colorado mountains will only be in the 40's. 

Thunderstorms Breakout This Afternoon - Main Show On Sunday.

Surface Forecast.

Valid @ Noon MDT Sunday, September 25, 2016.

GFS Forecast High Temperatures For Monday.

GFS Forecast Temperature Departure From Normals On Monday.

A strong cold front is forecast to slide southward into the local area late tonight into Sunday morning. There still remains some question as to exactly when the front will arrive in southeastern New Mexico. Should its passage occur early enough Sunday morning then our daytime high temperatures will be in the 50's with some locals seeing 60ºF. If it arrive later in the day then we will be somewhat warmer. At any rate Monday still looks to be a raw, wet, blustery and chilly day with most of us only seeing the 50's for high temperatures.These readings will be some 20 to 30 degrees below normal.

Heavy Rains Still On Track To Fall.

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday.

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Noon MDT Tuesday.

NDFD NWS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Noon MDT Monday.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, October 1, 2016. 

Midland NWS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for parts of West Texas including the Lamesa, Andrews, Midland/Odessa, and Fort Stockton areas from this evening through Monday morning. Heavy rains from slow moving training thunderstorms and steady heavy rains are forecast across the area tonight into Monday. At this time the heaviest of these rains are forecast to fall east of southeastern New Mexico with some parts of West Texas in the Big Springs area possibly seeing as much as 6" to 8" of rainfall by Monday morning.

However any subtle shifts in exactly where the cutoff upper level low to our west that may or may not occur will have an impact locally on our storm total rainfall amounts. We could easily end up with more than what is being forecast or less depending upon just where this storm parks itself. So be alert for the possibility of Flash Flooding in southeastern New Mexico as well.

A Few Marginally Severe Thunderstorms will be possible across the area this afternoon and evening but for now it does not appear that we will see severe thunderstorms at the magnitude and strength that they reached last Thursday and Saturday. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

NAM Model Forecasts Heavy Rainfall For SE NM Sunday.

Today's 18Z/Noon MDT NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Midnight Monday Night.

Today's 18Z/Noon MDT NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Midnight Monday Night.

Roswell's Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Carlsbad's Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Hobb's Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Interestingly enough the 18Z run of the NAM computer forecast model continues its trend from this mornings 12Z run of dumping widespread rainfall totals of 2.50" to 3.50" across southeastern New Mexico on Sunday starting around sunrise. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Fall-Like Weather & Much Colder This Weekend Into The First Of Next Week.

Thursday, September 15, 2016.

Cumulonimbus Mammatus (CBMAM) Clouds Streaming Eastward From A Severe Thunderstorm Located Near Dell City, Texas, Or Just South Of Guadalupe Peak.

Much Cooler Out West This Morning.

Temperatures & 24-Hour Differences At 6 AM MDT This Morning.

Notice The Widespread 30's.

Major Changes Coming In With Our Weather This Weekend.

Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS 500 MB Analysis.

Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.

Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS High Temperature Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.

Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.

Last Nights 06Z/Midnight MDT GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday, September 26, 2016.

NWS NDFD Snowfall Accumulation Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, September 25, 2016.

Take a look at the temperature maps above. Notice the widespread 30's across the Western U.S. Its fall out west for sure. A powerful closed mid-level low was centered over Nevada early this morning. This storm is forecast to wobble southward today into the first of next week. And if the models are correct it will end up in Northwestern Mexico as a cut off low by Monday.

The European (ECMWF) model is jumping on this idea of a cutoff low over Northwestern Mexico by Monday morning also.

This storm is strong enough and cold enough that snow is forecast over parts of  the Western U.S. this weekend. Although snow is not forecast for New Mexico I suspect that some of our very highest peaks (above 11,000') may see some of the white stuff this weekend.

Today will be another hot one for much of the local area with afternoon highs in the low 90's. Saturday should be a few degrees cooler with highs in the mid-upper 80's.

 A strong cold front will sweep across the region Saturday night and Sunday morning dropping our temperatures dramatically compared to what they have been. Most of us will only see high temperatures on Sunday in the 60's and 70's and Monday may not get out of the 50's.

Sunday and Monday look to be raw with gusty northerly winds, thunderstorms, and heavy rain with temps only in the 50's and 60's. So it appears that there will definitely be a fall chill in the air. Our high temperatures on Monday will be some 25 to 35 degrees below normal if the GFS model is correct.

Of course it will be even cooler in the mountains Saturday and especially on Sunday with their high temps only in the 50's to near 60. 

As the storm to our west approaches and settles into the Four Corners Region by this evening we will start to see an increase in thunderstorm activity. A line of thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening across northeastern and eastern New Mexico. A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeastern New Mexico tonight.

 The dryline is forecast to set up across the area Saturday afternoon so we will need to watch it closely to see if a few severe thunderstorms form along and ahead of it. We will also need to keep a close eye on the sky Saturday evening into early Sunday morning for the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms forming along the approaching fast moving cold front here in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas.

As a much colder airmass settles in behind the cold front Saturday night and Sunday our chances for rain so of which may become heavy and times and scattered thunderstorms will increase. Some of these thunderstorms could possibly be severe and there also will be the threat from localized flash flooding from the heavy rains. 

A High Wind event may also develop in the Guadalupe Pass Area with the arrival of the strong cold front Saturday night and Sunday morning. 

A Freeze Watch has been issued for the San Juan Basin of Northwestern New Mexico for Saturday morning. Farmington and surrounding areas will likely see light freeze.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!