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Showing posts from August, 2020

Countdown To Fall Weather Underway.

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What A Crazy Year This Has Been So Far. U.S. GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast. Valid At Noon MDT Tuesday, September 1, 2020. U.S. GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Wind Forecast. Valid At Noon MDT Tuesday, September 1, 2020. Changes Blowin In The Wind. That heading is literal as the Jet Stream is starting to get active once again. Computer models forecast a mid and upper-level trough of low pressure to dive southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Four Corners area by Tuesday. The GFS wants to open up a closed low and move it across the state. The European and Canadian models drop it further back to the west into Arizona and stall it. Either way, our chances for cooler and wetter weather are going to increase the first to middle of the upcoming work week.  As we head into the meteorological fall (begins Tuesday) the Jet Stream will increasingly become more active and dig further and further to the south. Eventually displacing the summer heat ridge that has baked us all s

First Look At Winter - Grand Solar Minimum Still Coming.

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Courtesy of Famers Almanac. First Look At Winter.       As I write this it is 105ºF in Carlsbad, New Mexico . This marks the 60th time this summer I've hit 100ºF or higher here at our home on my Davis Vantage Pro+ Wireless Home Weather Station. Even though we live in the arid high desert Southwest, enough already. This is the year it seems summer is never going to end.      So how about something different, something to distract you from the heat and drought? Farmers Almanac  has released it's 2020-2021 Winter Forecast.       Long-range forecasting has never been my cup of tea but I've always admired those who attempt this almost impossible feat. Given how hot and dry our summer has been don't be surprised if Mother Nature tries to swing the pendulum the other way (cold winter) to balance herself out. Remember: "What goes up - always comes down, it's just of when."      " “Based on our time-tested weather formula, the forecast for the upcoming winter

Hurricane Laura Update - Tuesday, August 25, 2020.

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Hurricane Laura Satellite Images. 3:51 PM MDT Tuesday, August 25, 2020 - True Color Visible. 3:46 PM MDT Tuesday, August 25, 2020 - Visible/IR Combined (Sandwich). 3:57 PM MDT Tuesday, August 25, 2020 - Clean (LWIR). Forecast Tracks Of Hurricane Laura. National Hurricane Center. National Weather Service Houston/Galveston. National Weather Service Lake Charles. Computer Model Forecast Tracks Of Hurricane Laura. ECMWF EPS Ensemble Mean. Maximum Wave Height Forecast.       Incredible wave heights are forecast to peak around Wednesday afternoon offshore southeast of Houston, Texas. How about 75 feet according to the ECMWF model. Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Rainfall Forecast. Hurricane Laura To Become A Major Hurricane Before Landfall.      As of 4:30 PM MDT this afternoon Hurricane Laura continues to churn west-northwestward at 17 mph across the open Gulf of Mexico headed for a Texas landfall. The latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center call for Laura to make landfall late

Tropical Storm Laura - Monday, August 24, 2020.

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Tropical Storm Laura. 2:56 PM MDT Monday, August 24, 2020. Tropical Storm Laura. 3:01 PM MDT Monday, August 24, 2020. Tropical Storm Laura. 2:57 PM MDT Monday, August 24, 2020. National Hurricane Center Track Forecast. European Forecast Model Ensemble Mean Track Forecast. Tropical Storm Laura To Strengthen Tonight. Weather Prediction Center Storm Total Rainfall Amounts. (Tonight Into Next Monday).       Tropical Storm Laura was located near 21.7N and 82.2W or 40 miles east of the Ise of Youth as of 3 PM MDT or 4 PM CDT this Monday afternoon. She has sustained winds of 60 mph with gusts near 70 mph. Her central pressure remains fairly steady at 1001 millibars or 29.56 inches of mercury. Laura is moving steadily to the west-northwest at 20 mph.       Tropical Storm Laura is forecast to begin steadily strengthening tonight as she pulls away from Cuba and enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Rapid intensification is forecast by the Hurricane computer forecast models once Laura develop

Hurricane Marco - Tropical Laura & New Mexico Smoke.

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Western U.S. GOES-16 GeoColor (CIRA) Satellite Image. (At 9:10 AM MDT Sunday, August 23, 2020). NWS Lubbock @NWSLubbock Level 1: In today's GOES-16 image, you can see the enhanced fire detection ability of the satellite. Check out the bright ares in the yellow circles. They depict heat from active wildfires. We use this a lot during our spring wildfire season here in West TX too #lubwx #scienceiscool BoulderCAST Weather @BoulderCAST · Aug 21 There's a lot of smoke floating around the stalled ridge of high pressure in the western United States. Also neat to see all the smoke being pulled in to the remnants of once Category 4 #HurricaneGenevieve near the Baja... #COwx #Smoke #HRRRSmoke #CAwx Western U.S. Fires.       August 23, 2020 Currently, 93 large fires have burned more than 1.6 million acres in 13 states. More than 26,000 wildland firefighters and support personnel are assigned to incidents across the country. Evacuation orders are in effect for residents near 20 la

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