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Hurricane Laura Update - Tuesday, August 25, 2020.


3:51 PM MDT Tuesday, August 25, 2020 - True Color Visible.

3:46 PM MDT Tuesday, August 25, 2020 - Visible/IR Combined (Sandwich).

3:57 PM MDT Tuesday, August 25, 2020 - Clean (LWIR).

Forecast Tracks Of Hurricane Laura.










Computer Model Forecast Tracks Of Hurricane Laura.





     Incredible wave heights are forecast to peak around Wednesday afternoon offshore southeast of Houston, Texas. How about 75 feet according to the ECMWF model.




Hurricane Laura To Become A Major Hurricane Before Landfall.

     As of 4:30 PM MDT this afternoon Hurricane Laura continues to churn west-northwestward at 17 mph across the open Gulf of Mexico headed for a Texas landfall. The latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center call for Laura to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. The exact track where she makes landfall still is not settled amongst the models.

     Laura could still make landfall west of the Houston area or between Lake Charles and Lafayette. For now (as of this writing Tuesday afternoon) the NHC is calling for Laura to make landfall near Sabine Pass, south of Port Arthur, Texas 75 miles east of Houston. This could change and likely will change so don't bet on this exact position. 

     Hurricane Laura is forecast to become a Major Hurricane on Wednesday before she makes landfall as she moves over very warm waters. Wind shear is forecast to be minimal until roughly the last 6-12 hours before landfall when southwesterly wind shear will affect the Hurricane. Rapid strengthening is still forecast on Wednesday. Current thinking is that Laura will become a Category 3 or possibly a Category 4 Hurricane.

     Very heavy rainfall is forecast as Hurricane Laura moves inland and dissipates. 10" to 15" is what is forecast for now. Any changes in track and speed could change this. It's not uncommon for Major Hurricanes to produce over 20+ inches of rain. Devastating flooding and flash flooding will occur in her path.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale


The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures. In the western North Pacific, the term "super typhoon" is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane

     Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Irene of 1999, Katrina of 2005, and several others were Category One hurricanes at landfall in South Florida.

 

Category Two Hurricane

     Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894.

 

Category Three Hurricane

    Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017.

 

Category Four Hurricane

     Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The 1888, 1900, 1919, 1926 Great Miami, 1928 Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach, 1947, Donna of 1960 made landfall in South Florida as Category Four hurricanes.

 

Category Five Hurricane

     Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher). Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The Keys Hurricane of 1935 and Andrew of 1992 made landfall in South Florida as Category Five hurricanes.



BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and Southwest 
Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those 
areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to 
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be 
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  This storm surge could 
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in 
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. 

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge 
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For 
information specific to your area, please see products issued by 
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is 
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated 
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern 
Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and 
northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle 
Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and 
Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with 
isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause 
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their 
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio 
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as 
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to 
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western 
Louisiana early Thursday. 

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.

SURF:  Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click On These Links Below For The Latest On Laura.






Louisiana National Weather Service Offices.




Texas National Weather Service Offices.


Local Statements are prepared by National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) giving specific details for their County Warning Area (CWA) on weather conditions, evacuation decisions made by local officials, and other precautions necessary to protect life and property.

On this page are links to the Local Statements that have been released within the last 8 hours, as well as links to the homepages of the issuing Weather Forecast Offices.

Issuing WFO HomepageLocal ImpactsLocal Statement
New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LAThreats and Impacts406 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Houston / Galveston, TXThreats and Impacts418 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Lake Charles, LAThreats and Impacts432 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Shreveport, LAThreats and Impacts443 PM CDT Tue Aug 25

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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