Drought & Heat This Summer - No Relief In Sight.

Abnormally dry conditions persists across much of the local area. If you are thinking its been a hot and dry summer you are correct. Long range forecast models don't offer much long term hope of relief at this point in time either. If they are to believed our developing drought will slowly worsen in some areas with time as we head into fall. 

Radar Estimated & Reported August 2019 Rainfall.

August 2019 Rainfall Anomalies.

These rainfall graphic maps are misleading in my opinion. There have been pockets of heavy rainfall this month but comparing these maps with the reported totals noted below it appears that the radar estimates have been too high.

Local Rainfall Totals.

(August 2019).

Southeastern Plains.

South-Central Mountains.

Southern New Mexico

Year-To-Date Radar Estimated & Reported Rainfall Totals.

(January 1st - August 30th, 2019).

These year-to-date rainfall graphic maps are misleading in my opinion. There have been pockets of heavy rainfall this year but comparing these maps with the reported totals noted below it appears that the radar estimates have been too high. Hail contamination of the radar rainfall estimates seems to have played a big role in over estimating rainfall totals this spring and summer.

Southeastern New Mexico Year-To-Date Rainfall.

(January 1st - August 30th, 2019).

South-Central Mountains Year-To-Date Rainfall Totals.

(January 1st - August 30th, 2019).

Southern New Mexico Year-To-Date Rainfall.

(January 1st - August 30th, 2019).

Highest Recorded Temperatures This Year.

Southeastern Plains.

South-Central Mountains.

Southern New Mexico.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

New Daily/Monthly Record High Temps For August 2019.

Reported High Temps.

Monday, August 26, 2019.

New Daily NWS Record High Temperatures.

(Monday, August 26, 2019).

New August Record High Temps.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Wednesday Afternoon & Wednesday Nights Local Rainfall Totals.

El Paso NWS Dual Pol Doppler Radar 

Estimated Rainfall Totals Wednesday Afternoon.

Holloman AFB Dual Pol Doppler Radar 

Estimated Rainfall Totals Wednesday Afternoon.

Tularosa Basin Rainfall Totals.

Wednesday Afternoon.

Pecos Valley Rainfall.

Wednesday Night.

CoCoRaHS Rainfall Totals.

In The Northern Sacramento Mountains Wednesday Night.

CoCoRaHS Rainfall Totals.

In The Pecos Valley Wednesday Night.

Weather Underground Rainfall Totals Wednesday Afternoon.

Rainfall Totals From Wednesday Night.

True to this summers theme rainfall-wise hit and miss thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon dumped 2" to 3" of rain in and close to the Alamogordo area. A CoCoRaHS rainfall observer measured 2.20" in Alamogordo.

Wednesday night saw a complex of thunderstorms roll southward through the Pecos Valley dropping .10" to .60" in and around the Artesia and Atoka areas, and around .50" to 1.80" in the Lakewood and Seven Rivers areas.

Carlsbad on average picked up .10" to .40" from these storms. Hobbs had a thunderstorm Thursday afternoon which left as much as .14" across the northern parts of town.

Cannon AFB Dual Pol Doppler Radar Snapshot.

(7:22 PM MDT Thursday, August 15, 2019).

Early this Thursday evening a small line of strong thunderstorms was located about 15 miles northwest-north of Roswell moving southeastward. So hopefully they will get some rain and then the rest of us in the Pecos Valley will to later tonight. A few other thunderstorms have popped up along the east slopes of the mountains also.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

A Brief Break Wednesday & Thursday.

8-11-2019.

High Based T-Storms Southwest Of Hope.

Wide swatches of the local area remain parched and burnt from the lack of rain and heat.

NAM 3K Forecast High Temps.

Today.

Wednesday.

NAM 3K Composite Radar Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM Wednesday Afternoon.

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday.

So far this summer I've reached 100º or higher on 31 days here at our home in northwest Carlsbad. Forecast highs today in the Pecos Valley will average around 99º to 103º.

A couple of the forecast models offer some brief relief from the heat late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. A complex of thunderstorms (MCS) is forecast to move southward down the plains and into the Pecos Valley late Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a the stronger storms possibly producing rainfall totals of around 1" to 2". 

Notice that the NAM forecast model (depicted above) shows this complex of thunderstorms rolling into the Roswell and Artesia areas before 6 PM Wednesday. Forecast temps at 5 PM range from 78º in Artesia to 101º in Carlsbad. Timing of the arrival of these thunderstorms will be crucial to whether or not these temperatures do pan out at this time. 

Long range forecast models are split on the rest of the week into the weekend and the first of next week. The GFS cools us down into the 90's with scattered thunderstorms at times especially over and near the mountains.

The European model cranks the heat back up by the weekend with highs Saturday and Sunday near 105º. Its forecast high for Monday for Carlsbad is 108º. Fall can't come soon enough!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!