Three To Six Inches Of Rain In Hobbs Overnight - Flash Flood Watch For SE NM & W TX.

Sunday, August 28, 2016.

Looking East Down US Hwy 82 Halfway Between Hope And Artesia, New Mexico.

Thunderstorms Dump 3" - 6" Of Rain On Hobbs Overnight.

Radar Is Estimating Some Incredible Rainfall Totals From Thunderstorms Yesterday Afternoon And Evening Over The Hobbs Area, Around Seminole, And In Southwestern Lea County.  Anywhere From 3" - 6" The Hobbs And Seminole Areas To 10" East Of Seminole And 8" West Of Jal.

GRLevel3_2.00 Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals Last Night.

Personal Weather Station (PWS) KM5BS Located In North Hobbs Recorded 5.88" Of Rain Overnight.  

Lea County CoCoRaHS 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).

Flash Flood Watch Today Into Tuesday Morning.

Another 2" to 4" of rain will fall today into Tuesday morning associated with the stronger slower moving thunderstorms, and those that train over the same areas. Isolated greater totals are also possible. The Flash Flood threat is high given how wet August has been. Most locations in SE NM have recorded 4" or rain or more. 

Forecast Models Indicate Very Heavy Rains.

 NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Noon MDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016.

7-Day WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

(Valid Monday, September 5, 2016).

WRF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016. 

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Thursday, September 1, 2016.

Tropical Depression #9.

Tropical Depression #9 AT 8:45 AM MDT This Morning.

NHC Forecast Track.

Tropical Depression #9 Model Forecast Tracks.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located east of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Eight,
located southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

1. A weak trough of low pressure located just offshore of the central
coast of Texas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent
coastal areas.  Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the
system drifts southwestward during the next day or so.  For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa later today or tonight.  Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Roberts

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Get Ready For More Rain - Heavy At Times!

Looking Northwest From The Carlsbad Airport At A Right Moving Supercell Thunderstorm That Produced A Couple Of Funnel Clouds West Of Roswell, New Mexico On 8-24-2016. Check Chaves County Skywarn Coordinator Jim Tuckers Facebook Page For Photos Of The Mothership And Funnel Clouds From This Supercell Thunderstorm. 

Heavy Rains Fall Northeast Of Roswell Overnight.

Radar estimated that as much as 4" to 6" of rain may have fallen northeast of Roswell from a slow moving line of thunderstorms overnight. Unfortunately I can't find any rainfall reports in that area.

Wet Week Ahead - Heavy Rainfall Likely!

Rap 500 MB Analysis @ 8 AM MDT This Morning.

A rather robust closed upper level low was located over northeastern Arizona this morning. This low is forecast to wobble around the Four Corners area for the next several days. Thus good lift, instability, and abundant low and mid level moisture will cover the area this upcoming week. 

The general theme will be thunderstorms and heavy rain. Training thunderstorms (one right after another moving over the same location) may lead to local flash flooding. This will be especially true given the widespread 4+" rainfall totals that have already fallen from the Caprock west to the mountains. 

Storm total rainfall totals from today into next Thursday will be in the 1" to 6" at least based on the computer model forecasts. Not everybody will get 6" of rain but isolated locations will see some hefty totals by the end of next week. Widespread storm totals of 1" to 3" appear fairly likely. A Flash Flood Watch may be issued for the local area later today. 

All Models Agree - Heavy Rains This Week.

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016.

NAM-WRF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 30, 2016.

GEM (Canadian) Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Midnight MDT Thursday, September 1, 2016.

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Midnight MDT Thursday, September 1, 2016.

WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ Midnight MDT Thursday, September 1, 2016.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 30, 2016.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

So Far A Wet August For SE NM.

Shelf Cloud - Carlsbad, New Mexico.

8-23-2016.

Looking north towards Carlsbad from south of Whites City at a beautiful shelf cloud and very heavy rain this past Tuesday, August 23,2016. That storm dumped anywhere from .37" at our home on the northwest side of Carlsbad to 1.50" to 5.00" on the south and southeast side of Carlsbad.

Wet August For SE New Mexico.

Preliminary Local Climate Data For August 2016.

(August 1st - 26th).

Preliminary CoCoRaHS Rainfall For August 2016.

(August 1st - 26th).

So as of the 26th of this month a CoCoRaHS Station located 4.0 miles east of Cloudcroft is the wettest for the month so far with 7.09". In southeastern New Mexico the Carlsbad Airport checks in at 5.03" as of the 26th. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!